Diplomatic Analysis

Increased Allied Co-Production Signals a Redefinition of Security Partnerships. Overview Recent comments from Under Secretary of Defence for Acquisition and Sustainment, Michael P. Duffey, highlight a significant recalibration of US defence procurement strategy. The focus is shifting from simply selling arms to fostering co-production with allies, alongside broader industrial base investments and sweeping acquisition reforms. […]

Diplomatic Analysis: A calibrated response focused on fraudulent extraction, not distillation, is crucial for maintaining US AI leadership. The recent release of China’s Kimi K3 AI model, coupled with accusations of intellectual property theft levied by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has brought simmering tensions in the US-China AI competition to a boil. Washington is […]

Renewed Hostilities in 2026 Intensify Pressure on a Vital Energy Chokepoint. Overview The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is once again at the centre of escalating tensions. A renewed conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, initiated in February 2026, […]

Diplomatic Analysis: US inconsistency in its approach to Iran has exacerbated conflict and undermined peace efforts. Overview The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, marked by cycles of escalation and fragile ceasefires, is being heavily influenced by a pattern of ambiguity emanating from Washington. This analysis examines how President Trump’s fluctuating rhetoric and […]

Diplomatic Analysis: Despite inherent challenges, cyber operations *can* be deterred, but states appear reluctant to utilise deterrent threats effectively. Overview The application of deterrence theory to cyberspace presents unique difficulties. Unlike traditional domains of conflict, cyber operations are often obscured, attribution is problematic, and the potential for escalation is ambiguous. This analysis examines recent research […]

A concession on uranium enrichment risks regional escalation and undermines decades of US policy. The recent announcement of a nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia has prompted significant scrutiny, particularly regarding potential concessions made by the Trump administration concerning uranium enrichment technology. While Section 123 agreements, governing nuclear cooperation, usually uphold […]

A US agreement offering potential uranium enrichment access to Saudi Arabia risks destabilising the Middle East. The recent signing of a nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia has sparked considerable debate, not for what it explicitly states, but for what it might allow. Reports suggest the Trump administration made concessions regarding […]

Diplomatic Analysis: The evolving dynamics of amphibious warfare suggest a move towards unmanned systems, potentially reshaping conflict in littoral zones. Overview Recent military developments, particularly the Ukrainian demonstration of a fully unmanned amphibious assault in July 2026, signal a potentially revolutionary shift in amphibious warfare. For decades, the extreme risks associated with opposed amphibious landings […]

Diplomatic Analysis: Maintaining treaty obligations in the Nordics strengthens stability despite evolving security concerns. This analysis examines the debate surrounding the future of demilitarized zones in the Nordic region – specifically the Svalbard archipelago and the Åland Islands – in the context of increased geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the NATO accession […]