Diplomatic Analysis

Diplomatic Analysis: US inconsistency in its approach to Iran has exacerbated conflict and undermined peace efforts. Overview The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, marked by cycles of escalation and fragile ceasefires, is being heavily influenced by a pattern of ambiguity emanating from Washington. This analysis examines how President Trump’s fluctuating rhetoric and […]

Diplomatic Analysis: Despite inherent challenges, cyber operations *can* be deterred, but states appear reluctant to utilise deterrent threats effectively. Overview The application of deterrence theory to cyberspace presents unique difficulties. Unlike traditional domains of conflict, cyber operations are often obscured, attribution is problematic, and the potential for escalation is ambiguous. This analysis examines recent research […]

A concession on uranium enrichment risks regional escalation and undermines decades of US policy. The recent announcement of a nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia has prompted significant scrutiny, particularly regarding potential concessions made by the Trump administration concerning uranium enrichment technology. While Section 123 agreements, governing nuclear cooperation, usually uphold […]

A US agreement offering potential uranium enrichment access to Saudi Arabia risks destabilising the Middle East. The recent signing of a nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia has sparked considerable debate, not for what it explicitly states, but for what it might allow. Reports suggest the Trump administration made concessions regarding […]

Diplomatic Analysis: The evolving dynamics of amphibious warfare suggest a move towards unmanned systems, potentially reshaping conflict in littoral zones. Overview Recent military developments, particularly the Ukrainian demonstration of a fully unmanned amphibious assault in July 2026, signal a potentially revolutionary shift in amphibious warfare. For decades, the extreme risks associated with opposed amphibious landings […]

Diplomatic Analysis: Maintaining treaty obligations in the Nordics strengthens stability despite evolving security concerns. This analysis examines the debate surrounding the future of demilitarized zones in the Nordic region – specifically the Svalbard archipelago and the Åland Islands – in the context of increased geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the NATO accession […]

Maintaining the Status Quo in Svalbard and Åland Upholds Stability in a Changing Security Landscape. This analysis examines the ongoing debate surrounding the 1920 Svalbard Treaty and the 1921 Åland Islands Convention, both of which impose restrictions on military activity in strategically important Nordic territories. Recent shifts in the European security environment – particularly Russia’s […]

Strategic autonomy, economic interdependence, and risk mitigation drive Asian responses to US policy changes. Overview Recent years have witnessed significant volatility in US foreign policy, particularly toward Asia, characterised by the “America First” doctrine under the Trump administration and ongoing strategic competition with China. This has prompted Asian nations to recalibrate their diplomatic and economic […]

Renewed Hostilities and Diminishing Prospects for Diplomacy Dominate Regional Security Concerns. Overview This analysis examines the rapid deterioration of the April US-Iran ceasefire and the subsequent breakdown of the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). As of July 24, 2026, the situation has escalated to near-constant hostilities, including US strikes on Iranian soil, Iranian attacks […]

Diplomatic Analysis: Effective cyber defence hinges on establishing clear accountability and ownership, not solely force creation. This analysis examines the ongoing debate within the United States Department of Defense regarding the creation of a dedicated Cyber Force. While the impetus for such a force – addressing persistent readiness shortfalls and complexities in manning, training, and […]