Abraham Accords: A fragile framework for regional diplomacy faces new headwinds.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern relations. They normalised diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan – moving beyond decades of hostility without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Sudan’s trajectory toward full normalisation remains stalled following the outbreak of civil war, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have solidified economic, security and diplomatic cooperation with Israel. These accords were predicated on shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence and a desire for increased economic opportunity. The initial momentum has slowed, but existing agreements continue to drive collaboration, particularly in areas like trade, tourism, and technological innovation. However, the current regional landscape presents new and complex challenges to further expansion and sustainability of the accords.
Progress Made: Bilateral Ties Solidify Despite Wider Tensions
Despite the volatile regional environment, bilateral relations between Israel and the Abraham Accords partners have largely continued to deepen over the past year. Trade between Israel and the UAE has surged, exceeding $2.7 billion in 2023, with diversification into sectors beyond energy, including agriculture, technology, and tourism. Bahrain and Israel have also boosted economic cooperation, although at a smaller scale, focusing on financial technology and renewable energy. Moroccan-Israeli trade has steadily increased following the opening of liaison offices, although full diplomatic relations remain subject to political fluctuations within Morocco.
Security cooperation, while largely conducted discreetly, continues to be a significant pillar of the accords. Joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and collaborations on counter-terrorism initiatives are reported to be ongoing. Israel and the UAE, in particular, have engaged in increasingly open discussions regarding air defence systems and collaborative security strategies.
Beyond formal agreements, people-to-people exchanges have flourished. Record numbers of Israeli tourists visited the UAE and Morocco in 2023, fostering cultural understanding and economic benefits for local communities. Educational and academic partnerships are also expanding, with joint research programmes and student exchange initiatives gaining momentum. These grassroots connections aim to build a broader base of support for continued normalisation. In late 2023, discussions began on a potential joint bid between Israel, Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain to host the 2030 FIFA World Cup, a significant demonstration of regional collaboration.
Challenges: Regional Instability and Palestinian Frustration
The recent escalation of conflict in the Red Sea, driven by attacks on commercial shipping by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, poses a significant challenge to the spirit of the Abraham Accords. The Houthis, backed by Iran, claim they are targeting vessels linked to Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, disrupting a crucial maritime trade route and raising insurance costs significantly. This instability undermines regional economic prospects, impacting not only Israel but also the economies of the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, all of whom rely on secure shipping lanes.
Furthermore, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a central obstacle. The war in Gaza, following the 7 October Hamas attacks, has triggered widespread protests across the Arab world, placing pressure on Arab governments to reconsider their relationship with Israel. Several Arab states, while maintaining formal ties, have publicly condemned Israeli actions in Gaza, leading to a cooling of public sentiment towards normalisation.
Within Morocco, domestic political pressures surrounding the Palestinian issue have led to calls for a reassessment of the normalisation agreement. Similarly, public opinion in Bahrain remains divided, with a significant portion of the population expressing solidarity with the Palestinians. Deep-seated anxieties regarding Palestinian statehood and equitable resolution of the conflict continue to fuel scepticism towards normalisation efforts. The lack of concrete progress on the Palestinian front diminishes the perceived benefits of the accords for a wider segment of the Arab population.
Another challenge lies within the internal politics of the partner nations themselves. Economic pressures and shifting geopolitical priorities can lead to recalibrations of foreign policy, potentially impacting the level of commitment to the Abraham Accords.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Shadowy Influence on Regional Dynamics
The Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea are inextricably linked to the broader geopolitical rivalry between Israel and Iran. Iran, utilising proxy groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and various militias in Iraq and Syria, has demonstrably sought to project its influence throughout the region and challenge the established order. The Houthis’ stated rationale for targeting shipping – support for Gaza – is widely understood as a manifestation of Iran’s strategic objectives: to raise the cost for Israel, demonstrate regional leverage, and potentially elicit concessions.
The Abraham Accords were, in part, a response to perceived Iranian aggression and a desire by Arab states to bolster their defence capabilities. The strengthening of ties with Israel provides these nations with a strategic counterweight to Iranian influence. However, Iran’s continued support for regional proxies and its disruptive activities, like those in the Red Sea, serve to undermine the stability necessary for the accords’ long-term success.
Furthermore, the prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons remains a significant concern. Should Iran cross that threshold, it could embolden its proxies and further destabilise the region, potentially pushing Arab nations to reassess their strategic alignments, including their relationships with Israel. The Abraham Accords’ ability to thrive hinges on a contained and predictable security environment, a condition increasingly threatened by Iran’s actions and ambitions.
Path Forward: Pragmatism and Incremental Steps
The current challenges do not signal the immediate collapse of the Abraham Accords, but they necessitate a recalibration of expectations and a focus on pragmatic, incremental steps. Scaling back ambitious regional initiatives and concentrating on maintaining existing bilateral cooperation appears to be the most realistic path forward.
Continued security coordination, particularly concerning maritime security in the Red Sea, will be crucial. This may involve greater collaboration between Israel, the US, and Arab states to protect vital shipping lanes. Focusing on areas of mutual economic benefit, like technology and renewable energy, will provide tangible rewards to the populations of participating countries, reinforcing the case for continued normalisation.
Addressing the Palestinian issue, even in a limited capacity, is paramount. While a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive, confidence-building measures and economic development initiatives in the Palestinian territories could help alleviate some of the pressures fueling regional instability. The US and other international actors must actively engage in de-escalation efforts and facilitate dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians.
Realistically, expansion of the accords to include Saudi Arabia remains on hold pending resolution of complex political considerations. A renewed focus on consolidating existing ties, weathering the current storm, and subtly expanding cooperation where possible represents the most viable strategy for preserving the legacy of the Abraham Accords in a turbulent Middle East.
Source Attribution: This report is based on publicly available information, analysis from regional security experts, reports from international organisations, and informed assessments of geopolitical developments in the Middle East as of February 2024. Specific data points relating to trade figures were compiled from reports by the UAE Ministry of Economy and the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis reflects the author’s evaluation of the challenges facing the Abraham Accords specifically in light of the ongoing situation in the Red Sea.
