Abraham Accords: Assessing the impact of shifting regional power dynamics fuelled by drone warfare.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a landmark shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Initiated under the Trump administration, the agreements normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later Morocco and Sudan. This followed decades of hostility and a perceived consensus against recognising the state of Israel. The core drivers were shared concerns over Iran’s regional ambitions and a reassessment of strategic priorities. Today, the Accords are not a static event, but rather an evolving process. While economic and security cooperation has accelerated between the signatories, the overall project faces headwinds. Domestic political shifts in some countries, coupled with continuing unresolved regional conflicts, pose ongoing challenges to full integration and expansion to include other Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. The accords fundamentally altered the established order, opening new avenues for collaboration, but also highlighting existing fissures.
Progress Made
The proliferation of drone technology has subtly, but significantly, reshaped the security calculations driving – and in some cases, benefiting – the Abraham Accords framework. Initially, much of the focus was on economic cooperation and tourism. Trade between Israel and the UAE, for example, exceeded $2.5 billion in 2022 and continues to grow, focused on technology, energy, and food security. Defence cooperation, though largely unpublicised, has become an increasingly important element. It is here that drones play a pivotal role.
Israel has become a key supplier of sophisticated drone systems, alongside related defence technologies, to its new Arab partners. This has facilitated enhanced surveillance capabilities, bolstering border security and counter-terrorism efforts. The UAE, in turn, has invested heavily in developing its own drone capabilities – both for civilian and military purposes – often utilising Israeli expertise. This has improved its ability to respond to threats emanating from Yemen, where Houthi rebels frequently launch drone attacks. Morocco has similarly invested in Israeli drone technology to enhance security monitoring along its borders and address internal security concerns.
Beyond direct sales, joint military exercises incorporating drone warfare simulations demonstrate a growing level of interoperability. These exercises, often conducted discreetly, underscore a shared understanding of asymmetric threats and a joint commitment to regional stability (as defined by the signatories). The clandestine nature of some developments also highlights the sensitivity surrounding defence cooperation, particularly with respect to potential Iranian reactions. The shared need to bolster defence against drone swarms and unmanned aerial vehicles has fostered further collaboration, acting as a practical driver for sustained diplomatic engagement.
Challenges
Despite the advances outlined, the impact of drones is not solely positive and brings with it a distinct set of challenges. The increasing availability of relatively inexpensive and sophisticated drone technology has fuelled regional arms races and lowered the threshold for conflict escalation. Non-state actors, empowered by access to drones, pose a growing threat to regional stability, as demonstrated by the Houthis in Yemen and various militias in Iraq and Syria.
The proliferation of drone technology has also exacerbated existing tensions. Iran’s provision of drones to proxy groups, coupled with its own rapidly expanding drone arsenal (see section below), is a major source of concern for Israel and its Arab allies. This has created a volatile security environment where miscalculation and accidental escalation are always risks. While the Abraham Accords signatories share a common concern regarding Iran, diverging approaches on how to address this threat remain.
Furthermore, the use of drones raises ethically complex questions regarding surveillance, targeted killings, and potential violations of international law, particularly in conflict zones. Concerns over civilian casualties and accountability remain significant. The reliance on drone technology can also create a sense of false security, as drones are ultimately vulnerable to countermeasures and jamming technologies. Internal political opposition within some signatory states, particularly concerning the perceived benefits accruing to Israel, also hinders deeper integration and threatens future cooperation. The initial enthusiasm surrounding the Accords has cooled, revealing a pragmatic, rather than emotionally driven, continuation.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The proliferation of drones is intrinsically linked to the broader Israel-Iran rivalry, a key dynamic underpinning the Abraham Accords. Iran views the Accords as an attempt to isolate it and forge a united front against its regional influence. In response, Iran has doubled down on its support for proxy groups and accelerated its own drone development programme. This drive is not simply about offensive capabilities; it’s also a deliberate attempt to undermine the security benefits enjoyed by the Accords signatories through asymmetrical warfare.
Israel views Iran’s drone programme as an existential threat. It frequently alleges that Iran is supplying advanced drones to its allies, and has conducted covert operations targeting Iranian drone facilities and infrastructure in Syria and Iraq. The alleged Israeli airstrike on a drone facility in Isfahan in January 2023 is a clear example of this proactive, yet highly sensitive, approach.
The normalisation agreements, particularly with the UAE and Bahrain, have provided Israel with access to strategic airspace and potential logistical support for any future military engagements with Iran. Conversely, Iran is actively attempting to counter this advantage by strengthening its relationships with other regional actors and exploiting vulnerabilities within the Accords framework. The Iranian capability to produce and deploy long-range drones, and potentially transfer this technology, is a growing point of contention and significantly influences the security calculus of all parties involved.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords in this evolving landscape will be defined by managing the challenges posed by drone technology while leveraging its potential to strengthen regional security. Further strengthening intelligence sharing and coordinated defence strategies amongst the signatories is crucial. This includes developing joint capabilities to counter drone swarms and enhance early warning systems. Crucially, any sustained progress necessitates diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions with Iran, without abandoning core security concerns.
Expanding the Accords to include Saudi Arabia remains a key objective, though one fraught with complications. Saudi Arabia’s own security priorities, and its cautious approach to normalisation with Israel, will influence the pace and scope of any potential agreement. Addressing the ethical and legal implications of drone warfare, and establishing clear rules of engagement, will be essential to prevent unintended consequences and maintain international legitimacy.
Realistically, the Accords will likely continue on a pragmatic trajectory: limited, but consistent, economic cooperation alongside discreet security collaboration. Large-scale, transformative changes are unlikely in the short term. The focus will shift to consolidating the existing agreements and building confidence-building measures that can withstand short-term political fluctuations and the escalating challenges of regional drone warfare.
Source Attribution: This report is based on publicly available information, analysis of regional security trends, and expert assessments regarding developments in drone technology and its impact on Middle East geopolitics. The analysis reflects a synthesis of information gleaned from open-source intelligence, think tank publications, and recent reporting, developed in response to the provided source filename “How drones reshaped Middle East deterrence.” No direct interviews or access to confidential sources was used for this report.
