Abraham Accords: Assessing the evolving security landscape following the normalisation agreements.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant recalibration of political and diplomatic relations in the Middle East. Initiated under the Trump administration, the agreements saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Sudan and Morocco. These pacts moved beyond decades of animosity, fostering cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. While celebrated as a breakthrough for regional stability, the Accords were not universally welcomed, notably facing criticism from Palestinian authorities who felt they sidelined the pursuit of a two-state solution. Today, the Accords endure – although at differing intensities between the signatory states – against a backdrop of persistent regional conflicts and an evolving technological arms race, particularly surrounding unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. This report examines how the proliferation of drone technology is influencing the already complex dynamics of Middle East security, and its impact on the trajectory of normalisation.
Progress Made
The initial years following the Abraham Accords witnessed a demonstrable surge in cooperation, particularly between Israel and the UAE. Economic ties have flourished, with bilateral trade exceeding $2.5 billion in 2023. Tourism saw a substantial boost, though figures have fluctuated due to regional volatility. Beyond the economic sphere, security cooperation has been a key driver, initially focused on sharing intelligence regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and regional activities.
However, the focus has shifted increasingly to countering drone threats. Israel, a leading global developer of drone technology, has reportedly engaged in providing advanced anti-drone systems to the UAE and Bahrain. These systems are designed to detect, identify, and neutralise incoming UAVs, addressing a vulnerability highlighted by attacks targeting critical infrastructure. Joint military exercises, ostensibly aimed at improving interoperability and responding to shared security challenges, have increased in frequency and complexity, often with an emphasis on countering asymmetric warfare tactics, including drone attacks.
Morocco’s relationship with Israel has also deepened, though less publicly. Security cooperation, including intelligence sharing and the acquisition of Israeli-made drone defence systems, has been reported. The partnership with Sudan has been the most fragile, however, complicated by the ongoing civil war. Despite initial hopes for increased regional cooperation, the conflict dramatically curtailed Sudanese participation in the Accords framework, pausing progress on previously planned security initiatives. Despite this setback, the core partnerships of the Accords have continued to build on pre-existing, albeit covert, ties.
Challenges
Despite the progress, significant challenges remain. The most prominent is the continued Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The lack of meaningful progress towards a two-state solution fuels resentment and instability, providing a breeding ground for extremist groups. The perception that the Accords prioritised Israeli security interests over Palestinian rights has generated criticism and undermined the potential for broader regional acceptance.
The emergence of sophisticated drone technology has also dramatically altered the security landscape, creating new vulnerabilities and escalating existing tensions. The lower cost and accessibility of drones mean that non-state actors – including groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis – can pose asymmetric threats to regional stability. These groups have demonstrated increasingly advanced capabilities in both offensive and defensive drone warfare.
Furthermore, differing national interests within the Accords framework pose inherent challenges. The UAE and Bahrain prioritise addressing the Iranian threat, pushing for stronger alliances with Israel and the US. Morocco focuses on diplomatic leverage and economic benefits. Sudan, given its internal turmoil, is largely sidelined. Aligning these diverse priorities requires constant diplomatic effort and compromise. The recent increase in regional conflicts, such as the war in Yemen and escalation in Lebanon and Syria, further strains these relationships, diverting attention and resources away from normalisation efforts. The limited transparency surrounding security cooperation also breeds distrust and hinders the development of a truly integrated regional security architecture.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The proliferation of drones is inextricably linked to the escalating rivalry between Israel and Iran. Both countries are heavily invested in drone development and deployment, viewing them as critical tools for projecting power and deterring adversaries. Iran has become a major player in the global drone market, supplying advanced UAV technology to militias and proxies across the region. This has prompted Israel, driven by concerns about Iran’s growing influence and the potential for attacks, to intensify its own drone capabilities and the defensive systems offered to its partners.
The Abraham Accords, in this context, have implicitly formed a de facto anti-Iran alliance, though the signatory states rarely acknowledge it explicitly. The security cooperation fostered under the Accords allows for greater intelligence sharing regarding Iranian activities, improving the collective ability to respond to potential threats. It’s no coincidence that much of the drone-related security cooperation focuses on countering Iranian-backed groups and protecting critical infrastructure from Iranian-supplied drones. However, this dynamic also exacerbates tensions with Iran, fueling a regional arms race and complicating efforts to de-escalate conflicts. Iran views the Accords as a strategic encirclement orchestrated by Israel and its allies, justifying its continued investment in drone technology and its support for proxy groups.
Path Forward
Progress on normalisation now hinges on navigating this increasingly complex environment. Further deepening security cooperation, particularly in countering drone threats, will remain a priority. However, this must be complemented by efforts to address the root causes of regional instability, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. A renewed push for a credible peace process, even if incremental, is crucial for building trust and fostering broader regional acceptance of the Accords.
The United States, with its strategic influence, has a key role to play in mediating conflicts and facilitating dialogue. Strengthening regional security architectures that include all stakeholders – while acknowledging the limitations given current geopolitical realities – is essential. Focus should be on establishing clear rules of engagement for drone warfare to prevent escalation and unintended consequences.
Realistically, broad-based expansion of the Accords to include Saudi Arabia, currently engaged in delicate balancing acts with both Iran and the US, remains a distant prospect. Instead, focus will likely be on consolidating existing agreements and addressing specific security challenges, especially those related to drone warfare. The key lies in managing expectations, prioritising pragmatic cooperation, and acknowledging the inherent complexities of the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, expert commentary, and established reporting from regional security specialists. Given the sensitive nature of the topic and limitations in access to official sources, the assessment is based on informed projections.
