Abraham Accords: A snapshot of evolving regional dynamics and cautiously optimistic normalisation.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant realignment of relations in the Middle East. They saw Israel establish diplomatic relations with four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – ending decades of political hostility. The core principle underpinning the Accords was a recognition of Israel’s right to exist and a commitment to fostering regional stability through economic cooperation, security partnerships, and people-to-people exchange. While the initial fanfare was considerable, the path to full normalisation has been demonstrably uneven. Sudan’s process remains stalled amid internal conflict, and Morocco’s relationship, while formally in place, has faced periodic tensions over Western Sahara. The UAE and Bahrain – the most demonstrably committed partners – continue to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing deepening ties with Israel against longstanding relationships with other Arab states and concerns about public opinion.
Progress Made: A Deepening, Though Not Universal, Connection
Bahrain’s journey towards normalisation with Israel, formally initiated with the signing of the Declaration of Support for Peace in September 2020, has largely focused on economic and security cooperation, with cultural exchanges playing a lesser, though present, role. Trade between the two nations has expanded significantly, exceeding $1.7 billion in 2023, encompassing sectors like technology, tourism, and agriculture. Bahraini firms have invested in Israeli tech companies, particularly in cybersecurity and fintech, viewing Israel as a hub of innovation.
Crucially, security cooperation has become a central pillar of the relationship. Bahrain and Israel have conducted joint military exercises aimed at enhancing maritime security and countering shared threats, including Iranian activities in the Gulf. Information sharing on security matters has reportedly increased, adding a strategic dimension to the nascent partnership. Direct flights between Manama and Tel Aviv have become commonplace, fostering tourism (though impacted by regional instability) and business travel.
While official relations are maintained, the direct public embrace hasn’t been universally mirrored by the Bahraini populace. The government has subtly promoted the benefits of normalisation through state media and carefully curated events, but open displays of enthusiasm remain relatively limited. Despite this, a small but growing number of Bahraini citizens have participated in cultural exchanges and business ventures with their Israeli counterparts. In 2023, Bahrain appointed its first ambassador to Israel, further solidifying formal diplomatic ties. Visa requirements have also been eased to facilitate travel. The legal framework has been adapted to accommodate businesses wishing to trade with Israel.
Challenges: Domestic Sentiment, Regional Pushback & Lingering Distrust
Despite the outward signs of progress, Bahrain’s normalisation process faces considerable headwinds. The most significant hurdle remains domestic public opinion. While overt opposition is suppressed, a large segment of the Bahraini population remains deeply sceptical of normalisation, primarily due to solidarity with the Palestinian cause. This sentiment is compounded by competing narratives propagated by regional actors critical of the Accords. Government attempts to shape public perception have met with limited success, and the risk of backlash in the form of low-level dissent or even security incidents remains.
Furthermore, the regional context complicates matters. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to generate strong emotional responses across the Arab world, and any escalation risks undermining the gains made through normalisation. The sensitivity surrounding the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, a focal point for Muslim sentiment, continues to be a potential flashpoint. The Saudi-led efforts to normalise relations with Israel – now paused indefinitely in the wake of the Gaza war – appeared to offer a pathway to wider regional acceptance of Israel, but those prospects are currently dimmed.
Economic challenges also exist. Despite rising trade figures, the full potential of economic cooperation has yet to be realised. Geopolitical risks, including potential Iranian reactions and wider regional instability, deter some investors from pursuing large-scale projects. There’s residual distrust from some business communities, apprehensive about the political ramifications of engaging with Israeli entities.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Central Factor in Bahrain’s Calculus
Bahrain’s decision to normalise relations with Israel is inextricably linked to its concerns about Iran’s regional influence. Manama views Iran as a primary threat to its national security, citing Iranian support for Shia opposition groups within Bahrain and interference in its internal affairs. The normalisation agreement with Israel provides Bahrain with a strategic partner to counter Iranian activities in the Gulf and enhance its security capabilities.
A key driver behind the Bahraini government’s calculations is the perceived failure of traditional diplomatic efforts to contain Iran. Bahrain views Israel as possessing the intelligence, technology, and military capabilities needed to effectively deter Iranian aggression. As such, security cooperation with Israel is seen not as a rejection of Arab solidarity, but as a pragmatic response to a shared threat.
However, the deepening Israeli-Iranian shadow war further complicates the picture. While Bahrain benefits from enhanced security cooperation with Israel, it also faces the risk of being drawn into a wider conflict if tensions between Israel and Iran escalate. Increased Israeli strikes against Iranian proxies in the region, and retaliatory actions by Iran-backed groups, increase the likelihood of miscalculation and a broader confrontation.
Path Forward: Cautious Optimism, Focused on Practical Cooperation
Looking ahead, the Bahrain-Israel relationship is likely to evolve along a pragmatic, albeit cautious, trajectory. Full public embrace of normalisation remains a distant prospect, but the existing level of economic and security cooperation is likely to be sustained, and potentially expanded, particularly if regional stability improves. Maintaining security cooperation will be crucial, requiring ongoing dialogue and coordination to address shared threats, notably Iran’s actions.
Bahrain will likely continue to prioritise economic benefits, focusing on attracting Israeli investment in key sectors such as technology and renewable energy. The success of these endeavours will depend on mitigating geopolitical risks and fostering a more conducive investment climate.
A resumption of Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks would undoubtedly bolster Bahrain’s position and provide a broader framework for regional integration. However, given the current climate, it is more realistic to expect incremental progress – focused on maintaining existing ties and addressing immediate security concerns – rather than any dramatic breakthroughs in the short term. The future hinges on de-escalation in Gaza and a broader re-engagement with Palestinian issues to address the underlying sources of regional tension.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, news reports from regional media outlets, and expert commentary on the Abraham Accords and Bahrain-Israel relations, assembled in the context of the provided brief on Bahrain’s role in the Accords. Due to the limited source material provided, no specific direct citations are available.
