Abraham Accords: A fragile framework of normalisation, tested by regional tensions, seeks broader acceptance.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They established diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later Morocco and Sudan – marking a departure from decades of Arab consensus opposing Israeli recognition. While Sudan’s transition to full normalisation stalled following the 2021 coup, the agreements with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have seen a steady, though not universally embraced, expansion of cooperation across economic, security, and cultural spheres. The core principle underpinning the Accords is a move away from the previously held belief that progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front is a sine qua non for regional stability and Arab-Israeli normalisation. Today, the Accords remain a defining feature of the regional landscape, but their future expansion rests on a complex interplay of political will, regional dynamics, and unresolved conflicts.
Progress Made
The past year has witnessed continued, if incremental, progress in consolidating the existing Accords frameworks. Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain has surged, significantly exceeding pre-Accords levels. The UAE, in particular, has emerged as a major economic partner for Israel, with billions of dollars in investment flowing in both directions – spanning sectors like technology, renewable energy, and tourism. Bahrain has focused more on financial cooperation and security dialogues. Morocco has seen increasing Israeli tourism and burgeoning business ties, particularly in technology and agriculture, alongside vital Israeli acknowledgement of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.
Beyond economics, security cooperation amongst the involved nations has deepened. Quiet dialogues around shared concerns, particularly regarding Iran and regional stability, have become more frequent. Joint military exercises, while largely symbolic, signal a growing level of trust and interoperability. Cultural exchanges – particularly, people-to-people initiatives – have increased, although these remain relatively limited in scope and impact.
Perhaps the most notable development has been the ongoing discussions regarding a potential quadrilateral economic forum including Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and the United States. Though stalled at times due to political shifts within the US administration and wider regional turbulence, these talks are aimed at developing large-scale infrastructure projects and fostering greater economic integration. Several new, smaller agreements focused on specific sectors – like water security and food tech – have also quietly emerged, building upon the existing foundations of the Accords.
Challenges
Despite the demonstrable progress, significant challenges threaten the expansion and even the sustainability of the Abraham Accords. The most significant obstacle remains the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the Accords were predicated on decoupling normalisation from Palestinian statehood, persistent tensions in the West Bank, particularly the escalating violence and settlement expansion, continue to fuel resentment across the Arab world. This fuels accusations of complicity with Israeli policies and limits the appetite for further normalisation among Arab states still committed to the Palestinian cause.
Political instability within several key Arab nations also poses a risk. Sudan’s ongoing internal conflict has effectively halted any further movement towards full normalisation. Morocco, while committed, faces internal pressures balancing its relationship with Israel and its traditional solidarity with Palestinians. Even within the UAE and Bahrain, public opinion remains divided regarding the normalisation process, and governments must navigate this sensitivity carefully.
Furthermore, a growing sense of complacency, and lack of substantial deliverables regarding Palestinian statehood, has begun to permeate some quarters. Many critics argue that the Accords have primarily benefited Israel, with limited tangible gains for the Palestinian people. This perception undermines the long-term legitimacy of the agreements in the eyes of many. Periodic flare-ups of violence in Gaza also threaten to derail the positive momentum built over the past few years, forcing regional actors to reassess their positions. The war in Yemen and wider regional proxy conflicts also distract from, and occasionally jeopardise, these diplomatic efforts.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shadow of the Iranian nuclear programme and broader regional influence looms large over the Abraham Accords, forming a key, albeit unacknowledged, element driving their rationale. The Accords represent, in part, a strategic alignment amongst Israel and Sunni Arab states who share a common concern about Iran’s regional ambitions. The potential for a nuclear-armed Iran is seen as an existential threat by Israel and a destabilising force for the Gulf states.
This shared threat perception has fostered security cooperation and intelligence sharing between Israel and the Accords nations. Israel views this evolving security landscape as critical to its national security, offering a buffer against Iranian influence. The potential revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the Iran nuclear deal – has repeatedly injected uncertainty into the equation. Accords signatories privately expressed concern that a restored deal, without addressing Iran’s broader regional activities, would embolden Tehran and undermine their strategic alignment with Israel.
Conversely, Iran strongly condemns the Abraham Accords, describing them as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a tool for regional division. It actively attempts to disrupt normalisation efforts through various means, including supporting proxy groups and engaging in cyberattacks. The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran, often playing out in the shadows, added a layer of complexity and volatility to the landscape.
Path Forward
Looking ahead, realistically, the expansion of the Abraham Accords will proceed at a slower, more cautious pace. Immediate, large-scale normalisation agreements with Saudi Arabia, while still a long-term aspiration, remain unlikely in the near future due to domestic political considerations and the Kingdom’s continued emphasis on a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The focus will likely shift towards deepening existing relationships and expanding cooperation in targeted areas like trade, technology, and security. Revitalising discussions surrounding the quadrilateral economic forum, and delivering tangible economic benefits to all involved parties, will be critical to demonstrating the Accords’ continued value.
Small steps toward greater inclusivity – perhaps involving initiatives focused on Palestinian economic development, or limited dialogue between Israeli and Palestinian representatives facilitated by Accords nations – could help address some of the criticisms directed at the Accords. However, genuine progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front remains a fundamental precondition for broader regional acceptance. Maintaining a united front against Iranian influence, and actively managing the risk of escalation, will be crucial in preserving the fragile foundations of this diplomatic framework. The Accords’ long-term success will depend on demonstrating a shared commitment to regional stability and mutual benefit, rather than viewing it solely through the lens of narrow strategic interests.
Source: Analysis based on expert assessment of regional developments as of November 2023, informed by the title provided: “The Accords at a crossroads: expansion hopes after a turbulent year.” No direct source material was available for verification.