Abraham Accords: Examining Bahrain’s path within the evolving landscape of Middle East normalisation.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relationships in the Middle East. The initial agreements – between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel and Morocco – marked the first formalisation of relations between these nations in decades, breaking with long-held pan-Arab norms. Bahrain joined swiftly after, signing a declaration of peace with Israel in October 2020. This followed a series of US-mediated discussions and built upon existing, albeit discreet, security cooperation.
The accords stemmed from shared concerns over Iranian regional influence and a shared desire for economic opportunities. While not directly resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they signaled a shift where some Arab states prioritised pragmatic relations with Israel over conditions tied to a final status agreement. The Sudan initially joined, but the civilian government’s subsequent instability hampered full implementation. Today, the framework is largely static, with ongoing investment in bilateral ties, but expansion remains stalled amid regional tensions and the lack of substantial progress on the Palestinian front.
Progress Made
Bahrain’s commitment to the Abraham Accords has manifested in several tangible developments since the 2020 declaration. The most prominent has been the establishment of full diplomatic relations, including the opening of embassies in Manama and Tel Aviv. Direct flights between the two countries commenced in January 2021, fostering increased tourism and people-to-people exchanges. This has included cultural events – a Bahraini delegation performed at Israel’s Independence Day celebrations in 2022 – and reciprocal visits from government officials, business leaders, and citizens.
Economically, Bahrain and Israel signed a series of memoranda of understanding (MoUs) covering cooperation in areas like technology, agriculture, trade, and banking. Bilateral trade has grown steadily, estimated at over $80 million in 2022, with potential for substantial expansion in sectors such as fintech and renewable energy.
Security cooperation, which predated the accords but was previously conducted discreetly, has become more overt. Joint naval exercises have been a visible demonstration of this strengthened partnership, aimed at countering maritime threats and enhancing regional stability. Bahrain has also expressed support for Israel’s integration into regional security architectures, particularly regarding shared concerns over Iranian activities. Several high-level Israeli security officials have visited Bahrain, underlining this aspect of the relationship. This partnership is also beginning to extend into cybersecurity collaboration and intelligence sharing.
Challenges
Despite the visible progress, Bahrain’s normalisation process isn’t without significant challenges. Public opinion within Bahrain remains divided, with a vocal segment of the population expressing strong opposition to normalising ties with Israel, fuelled by solidarity with Palestinians. This opposition manifests in protests, online activism, and through critical commentary from political groups. The government, an absolute monarchy, tightly controls the media and political expression, which limits the visibility of dissent but doesn’t eliminate it.
The lack of concrete progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process continues to be a major sticking point. Many Arab publics view normalisation as a betrayal of Palestinian rights without a corresponding commitment from Israel to address their grievances. Bahrain, while publicly maintaining support for a two-state solution, has not been able to leverage its relationship with Israel to significantly advance the peace process.
Regional instability also poses a risk. Escalations between Israel and Palestinian groups in the West Bank or Gaza, or a wider conflict involving Iran, could put significant strain on Bahrain’s relationship with Israel and galvanise domestic opposition. The continued presence of Iranian-aligned groups in the region, and their potential to exacerbate tensions, present a consistent security concern. Finally, economic gains have been slower-than-anticipated due to broader global economic headwinds and logistical challenges in establishing robust supply chains.
Israel-Iran Dimension
Bahrain’s normalisation with Israel is fundamentally linked to shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence. Manama views Iran as a destabilising force and has accused it of supporting opposition movements within Bahrain. The perceived Iranian threat was a key driver behind Bahrain’s willingness to deepen security cooperation with Israel.
The Abraham Accords, broadly, are viewed by some analysts as an attempt to create a regional alliance, albeit an informal one, to counter Iran. While not explicitly framed as an anti-Iran pact, the strengthened security ties between Israel and Gulf states like Bahrain demonstrably enhance their collective ability to deter Iranian aggression.
However, this dimension also fuels regional tensions. Iran views the accords as a betrayal of Arab solidarity and a dangerous escalation of anti-Iranian sentiment. It has consistently criticised Bahrain’s normalisation, accusing it of being a tool of US and Israeli policy. In response to perceived threats, Iran has ramped up its rhetorical attacks and increased support for its regional proxies, potentially exacerbating instability and complicating Bahrain’s security landscape. The recent intensification of the ‘shadow war’ between Israel and Iran, involving attacks on shipping and infrastructure, further underscores this volatile dynamic.
Path Forward
The future of Bahrain’s normalisation with Israel appears to be one of cautious consolidation rather than rapid expansion. Further deepening of economic ties, particularly in sectors offering mutual benefit like technology and tourism, is likely. Continued security cooperation is almost certain, potentially involving joint exercises and intelligence sharing, as both nations perceive an ongoing threat from Iran.
However, substantial new breakthroughs – such as expanding the accords to include Saudi Arabia – remain contingent on resolving key political obstacles and de-escalating regional tensions. Progress on the Palestinian front will also be crucial in boosting the legitimacy of normalisation in the eyes of Arab public opinion.
Bahrain will likely focus on managing the internal challenges posed by domestic opposition, attempting to balance the benefits of normalised relations with the need to navigate sensitive social and political considerations. The focus will likely shift from headline-grabbing announcements to the more granular work of building concrete, sustainable partnerships. Ultimately, Bahrain’s trajectory within the Abraham Accords will be closely tied to the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East and the ability of all parties to manage its inherent complexities.
Source: Based on analysis of publicly available information regarding Bahrain’s foreign policy, regional security dynamics, and the Abraham Accords as of October 26th, 2023, informed by the prompt “Inside Bahrain’s decision to join the Abraham Accords”. No specific authored source text was available.
