Abraham Accords: A landscape reshaped by shifting alliances, yet haunted by unresolved conflict.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern relations. Initiated under the Trump administration, they saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, in exchange for concessions, primarily regarding arms sales and US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. These agreements deviated from decades of Arab consensus demanding a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a precondition for normalisation. While proponents hailed them as a pathway to regional stability and economic growth, critics argued they sidelined the Palestinian issue and potentially exacerbated existing tensions. Today, the Accords exist in a complex state – economic and security cooperation is ongoing, but public enthusiasm has waned in some quarters, and the shadow of the unresolved Palestinian question looms large over future prospects for expansion.
Progress Made
The past four years have witnessed tangible developments stemming from the Abraham Accords. Trade between Israel and its new Arab partners has surged, reaching billions of dollars. The UAE and Israel have collaborated on numerous projects in technology, renewable energy, and tourism, evidenced by the increasing number of direct flights and business ventures. Bahrain, a smaller economy, has focused on financial cooperation and security ties with Israel, including joint naval exercises. Morocco benefitted from US recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara as a component of the deal, alongside enhanced security cooperation.
Beyond purely bilateral ties, the Accords fostered new multilateral frameworks. The Negev Summit in March 2022, hosted by Israel and bringing together foreign ministers from the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the US, demonstrated a willingness to build upon the initial agreements. Discussions centred on regional security challenges—particularly Iran—and on shared concerns regarding food and water security.
Security cooperation has arguably been the most impactful aspect. Intelligence sharing on Iran and extremist groups has strengthened, and there have been coordinated efforts to counter regional threats. This is particularly evident in the development of an integrated air defence system, a joint project involving Israel and the US with potential future participation from Arab partners, aimed at defending against missile and drone attacks. Sudan’s involvement has been more muted following the outbreak of conflict in April 2023, significantly slowing progress on that particular normalisation track.
Challenges
Despite the progress, the Abraham Accords face significant challenges. The central tension is that normalisation was achieved without addressing the core issue of Palestinian statehood. The accords were criticised as abandoning the long-held Arab position of linking normalisation to significant steps towards a two-state solution. This has fuelled resentment amongst Palestinians and within certain segments of Arab public opinion.
Renewed Israeli-Palestinian violence, particularly the escalation following the October 7th Hamas attacks, has dramatically underscored this fragility. The war in Gaza and the accompanying humanitarian crisis has prompted several Arab states to publicly distance themselves from Israel while simultaneously curtailing, or suspending, security cooperation. Public pressure, reflecting widespread condemnation of Israeli military actions, has limited governments’ ability to openly deepen ties with Israel.
Furthermore, lingering disagreements over the extent of economic benefits promised as part of the agreements continue to cast a shadow. Some Arab partners feel the economic rewards have not materialised to the expected degree. Political instability within Arab states – like the ongoing situation in Sudan – also hinders further normalisation efforts. Internal priorities and power struggles often overshadow regional diplomatic initiatives. Finally, concerns persist regarding the potential for the US to re-engage with the Iran nuclear deal, potentially altering the strategic calculus that underpinned the initial push for normalisation.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The perceived shared threat posed by Iran was a major catalyst for the Abraham Accords. The UAE and Bahrain, particularly, viewed Iran’s regional ambitions with deep concern and saw a stronger security alignment with Israel as a necessary defensive measure. The Accords provided a platform for enhanced intelligence sharing and coordinated strategies to counter Iran’s influence.
However, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, specifically including increasingly direct clashes and Iran’s nuclear programme, present a complex dynamic. While it initially consolidated the alignment of the ‘Accords countries’ against Iran, the situation in Gaza has raised questions. Some Arab states, while remaining wary of Iranian influence, have criticised Israeli actions and expressed concern about a wider regional war that could benefit Iran. The delicate balance struck through the Accords—normalisation based in part on a perceived Iranian threat—is being tested. Iran, meanwhile, views the Accords as a strategic threat and actively works to undermine them through its regional proxies and diplomatic efforts. The risk remains that further escalations could fracture the nascent regional alignment and embolden Iran.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords and the potential for further normalisation hinges on several factors. A significant improvement in the Israeli-Palestinian situation is paramount. While a comprehensive peace agreement remains a distant prospect, even gestures towards de-escalation, confidence-building measures, and renewed commitment to a two-state solution could alleviate pressure on Arab governments and create a more conducive environment.
Realistically, expanding the Accords to include Saudi Arabia currently appears unlikely in the short term. While Saudi Arabia engaged in US-brokered discussions on a potential normalisation deal, the war in Gaza dramatically stalled those talks. Any future progress will depend on significant concessions to the Palestinians and a demonstrable commitment from Israel to a viable pathway towards statehood.
Focusing on practical, less politically charged areas of cooperation – renewable energy, water management, and counter-terrorism – may offer a more realistic path forward. Deepening economic ties and exploring new avenues for regional integration can build trust and create vested interests in maintaining stable relations. The US role remains crucial, both as a mediator and as a guarantor of security commitments. However, a more nuanced approach that acknowledges the complexities of the region and prioritises addressing the Palestinian question is vital if the Abraham Accords are to move beyond a fragile status quo and contribute to lasting peace and stability.
Source: Based on analysis of publicly available information and expert commentary surrounding the Abraham Accords and regional geopolitics, anticipating source material titled “Why the Palestinian question still shapes every normalisation deal”.
