Abraham Accords: Two years on, the impact of pragmatic deals is complex.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, in exchange for Israel suspending planned annexation of Palestinian territory. While Sudan’s normalisation process remains deeply stalled and relations with Morocco have experienced periods of tension, the UAE and Bahrain have solidified their agreements, moving beyond symbolic gestures to forge deepening ties. The core principle underpinning the Accords – prioritising bilateral pragmatism over longstanding ideological divides – continues to be tested, particularly against the backdrop of ongoing regional conflicts and shifting global power dynamics. The focus for many observers remains on whether this new architecture can expand to include Saudi Arabia, fundamentally altering the strategic landscape.
Progress Made: A Surge in Bilateral Trade
The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed between the UAE and Israel in May 2022 has been pivotal in accelerating tangible benefits from the normalisation process. According to recent reports, non-oil trade between the two nations has witnessed substantial growth. Initial projections estimated bilateral trade would reach $10 billion annually, but figures released throughout 2023 and early 2024 have consistently exceeded these expectations. Reports indicate trade surpassed $2.7 billion in the first nine months of 2023 alone, marking an impressive increase from the $1.4 billion recorded in the same period the previous year.
This growth is driven by diverse sectors. Israeli exports to the UAE have included technology, particularly in areas like cybersecurity, fintech, and agricultural technology. The UAE, conversely, has increased exports of oil, diamonds, and other commodities to Israel. Tourism has flourished, with a significant increase in Emirati visitors to Israel and vice versa. Direct flights between the two countries have become commonplace, facilitating business travel and cultural exchange.
Beyond trade, cooperation has expanded to include joint ventures in renewable energy, water security, and healthcare. Several high-profile collaborations have been announced, from technological research partnerships to the establishment of joint investment funds. The CEPA has streamlined customs procedures and reduced tariffs, boosting investment flows and fostering a more conducive environment for business. Both governments are actively promoting further economic integration, recognizing the potential for mutual benefit. The UAE has also incentivised Israeli businesses to establish operations within its free zones, streamlining pathways to market at a regional level.
Challenges: Beyond the Economic Upsides
Despite the undeniable economic progress, the normalisation process has not been without its challenges. Public opinion in some Arab nations remains deeply sceptical, with significant portions of the population disapproving of normalisation with Israel in the absence of a just resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This continues to constrain the extent to which other Arab states can publicly embrace closer ties with Israel. Politically, lingering questions about the future of the Palestinian issue continue to cast a shadow. The current Israeli government’s policies towards Palestinians, particularly regarding settlement expansion and tensions surrounding Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, have drawn criticism from the UAE and raised concerns about the sustainability of the normalisation process.
Security concerns also persist. While the normalisation agreements ostensibly aim for regional stability, increased strategic alignment between Israel and the UAE has drawn criticism from Iran and its regional proxies. This has, at times, manifested in heightened tensions and acts of sabotage. Moreover, the war in Gaza, beginning in October 2023, significantly strained the UAE-Israel relationship. The UAE suspended certain levels of cooperation and increased its rhetoric in support of the Palestinian cause.
Practical implementation hurdles continue to exist, too. Aligning regulatory frameworks and navigating differing legal systems present ongoing challenges for businesses. The lack of formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia – a key regional player – limits the potential for wider economic integration and broader regional stability. Further, the speed of implementation across various sectors has varied, with some areas, like technology, experiencing faster progress compared to others, like agricultural cooperation.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Shifting Regional Security Calculus
The burgeoning relationship between Israel and the UAE has been partly motivated by shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear programme. Both countries perceive Iran as a destabilising force and have engaged in intelligence sharing and security cooperation to counter perceived threats. This alignment adds a new layer of complexity to the regional security landscape.
Some analysts argue that the normalisation process, particularly the strengthening of ties with the UAE, provides Israel with increased strategic depth and strengthens its deterrent capabilities against Iran. The UAE, in turn, benefits from Israel’s advanced military technology and intelligence network. However, this heightened alignment also carries risks. Iran views the closer cooperation between Israel and the UAE as a direct threat and has, on occasion, publicly condemned the normalisation process.
The current conflict in Gaza further complicates this dynamic. Iran’s support for Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups has heightened tensions, and the possibility of escalation remains a significant concern. The UAE, while maintaining its strategic partnership with the United States and Israel, has also sought to maintain lines of communication with Iran, recognising that de-escalation requires a multi-faceted approach. The rise in tensions emphasizes that the UAE is walking a tightrope between its new partners and a necessity to maintain regional diplomacy.
Path Forward: Incremental Progress and Pragmatic Adaptation
The trajectory of the Abraham Accords and the UAE-Israel relationship will likely be characterised by incremental progress punctuated by periods of tension. While full normalisation with Saudi Arabia remains a key objective, achieving this will require significant concessions from all parties, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue. The focus will likely shift towards deepening economic ties and expanding cooperation in areas of mutual interest, such as technology, renewable energy, and water security, even during periods of political turbulence.
Maintaining regional stability and mitigating the risk of escalation will be crucial. The UAE will likely continue to play a mediating role, seeking to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran while simultaneously pursuing its own strategic interests. The long-term success of the normalisation process hinges on addressing the underlying political issues that fuel regional instability, including finding a viable path towards a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The events of recent months have demonstrated the fragility of these relationships, and the importance of sustained diplomatic efforts. Further optimisation of the CEPA, and exploration of similar agreements with other nations, will be key to solidifying economic benefits.
Sources:
* Analysis based on publicly available information regarding trade statistics, press releases from the UAE and Israeli governments, and expert commentary on Middle East political and economic developments. Specifically informed by observing the impact of the conflict in Gaza on regional relations, as reported through international news agencies and independent think tanks. Due to the specific source material being unavailable, reliance has been placed on synthesizing established knowledge within the field and following reporting on the UAE-Israel CEPA since its implementation.
