Diplomatic Analysis: Beijing views current stability not as convergence, but as a strategic pause in ongoing competition.
This analysis examines a recently published report by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank affiliated with China’s Ministry of State Security, concerning the state of US-China relations. The report, released alongside President Trump’s May 2026 visit to Beijing, frames the current period of “strategic stability” as a deliberate pause within a longer, ongoing competition – a ‘strategic stalemate’ – intended to allow China to consolidate its power and ultimately shift the balance of forces in its favour. Understanding this internal Chinese assessment is crucial for accurately interpreting Beijing’s diplomatic signals and formulating effective American policy, particularly as Washington navigates a complex landscape of cooperation and competition with China.
Historical Context
The US-China relationship has undergone dramatic shifts since the end of the Cold War. Initially, the post-Soviet era was characterised by a period of American unipolarity, with China largely absorbing US pressure on issues ranging from trade to military build-up. The 2008 global financial crisis, however, marked a turning point, eroding perceptions of US primacy and highlighting vulnerabilities in the existing world order. As China’s economic and military capabilities grew, Washington adopted a more assertive posture towards Beijing, leading to increasing strategic competition throughout the Obama and subsequent administrations. This competition manifested in trade disputes, technological restrictions, and increasing military activity in the Indo-Pacific region. The CICIR report positions the current dialogue and perceived ‘strategic stability’ – the agreed framework of the 2026 summit – as a continuation of this dynamic, but within a specific and purposefully defined phase. This phase is deeply rooted in Maoist strategic thinking.
Key Actors & Positions
The primary actors are the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The US, under President Trump in this scenario, seeks to manage the relationship to prevent escalating tensions and secure specific US interests, such as fair trade practices and regional stability. The Chinese position, articulated through the CICIR report, is more complex. While publicly expressing a desire for peaceful coexistence, the report reveals a belief that China is currently in a ‘strategic stalemate’ with the US – the second of three phases in a protracted struggle, as defined by Mao Zedong’s military theory. The report frames this as a period where China is actively leveraging struggle to extract favourable cooperation. The CICIR specifically advises the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, the body responsible for shaping China’s strategic direction, and ultimately informs the decisions of the Chinese leadership. Crucially, the public-facing comments of officials (like praising “collegial atmosphere”) and the internal analysis of think tanks like CICIR may not align perfectly, creating potential for misinterpretation.
Analysis
The CICIR report’s conceptual framework, rooted in Mao Zedong’s theory of ‘protracted war,’ provides a critical insight into Beijing’s strategic thinking. This framework envisions a three-phase competition: strategic defence, strategic stalemate, and strategic counter-offensive. The report explicitly states that the US-China relationship is currently in the second phase, the ‘strategic stalemate.’ This is not viewed as a convergence of interests, but as a deliberate attempt to stabilise the relationship while China builds its strength and weakens US influence—achieving cooperation through struggle, not instead of it. The report’s analysis suggests a perception within the Chinese security establishment that years of sustained pressure from the US have not destabilised China, but have, in fact, strengthened its resilience and positioned it more favourably. The discrepancy between the English and Mandarin versions of the report is also significant, with the Chinese text offering a more nuanced and ideologically charged assessment. The emphasis on “struggle” as a methodology for securing cooperation is lost in translation, implying the US risks misinterpreting China’s willingness to cooperate as a fundamental shift in strategic objectives. This internal assessment advocates for continued competition, disguised under a veneer of ‘strategic stability’, designed to gradually shift the balance of power.
Outlook
In the near term, the ‘strategic stability’ framework is likely to be maintained. Both sides have a strong interest in avoiding direct confrontation, and the established channels for communication will likely be leveraged to manage disputes and pursue limited areas of cooperation. However, the CICIR report suggests that Beijing views this period as fundamentally tactical. The expectation is that, as China continues to strengthen its economic, scientific, and military capabilities, it will eventually reach the third phase of ‘strategic counter-offensive’. While the timing of this shift remains uncertain, the report’s framework implies that Beijing is operating under a long-term strategy designed to ultimately challenge US dominance. For the US, the primary challenge will be to accurately interpret Beijing’s intentions and anticipate its moves. Relying solely on surface-level diplomatic signals could lead to a miscalculation, and ignoring the underlying competitive dynamic – as articulated by the CICIR – could prove strategically disadvantageous. Washington must acknowledge that cooperation is likely being pursued as a means to consolidate strategic gains, not as an end in itself.
Sources:
Garcia, Z. (2026). Lost in Translation: How A Premier Chinese Think Tank Views U.S.-Chinese Competition. War on the Rocks. [https://warontherocks.com/2026/06/lost-in-translation-how-a-premier-chinese-think-tank-views-u-s-chinese-competition/](https://warontherocks.com/2026/06/lost-in-translation-how-a-premier-chinese-think-tank-views-u-s-chinese-competition/)
