Diplomatic Analysis: Russia’s expansion of its armed forces, despite failing to achieve decisive gains in Ukraine, signals a long-term shift in military posture with potential implications for European security.
Overview
This analysis examines Russia’s dramatic expansion of its armed forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War, assessing the motivations, methods, and ultimate limitations of this effort. The war initially exposed significant weaknesses in the Russian military, prompting a large-scale mobilisation and recruitment drive. While Russia has successfully increased its troop numbers significantly—reaching over 700,000 personnel—this expansion has not translated into the expected battlefield breakthroughs. This piece investigates why, and considers the implications of Russia’s commitment to a larger, mobilisation-dependent force structure for future security dynamics in Europe, particularly regarding NATO’s eastern flank. Understanding this shift is crucial for informed diplomatic and strategic planning.
Historical Context
Prior to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military was comparatively small, reflecting a post-Soviet focus on maintaining a technologically advanced, albeit limited, force. This approach prioritised contract soldiers over conscripts and underinvested in reserve capabilities. The initial invasion exposed these shortcomings; Russia lacked sufficient infantry and logistical capacity for a protracted occupation. The resulting failures prompted a rapid, multi-faceted response. Initially, existing reservists were called upon, followed by the formation of volunteer units and the deployment of private military companies like the Wagner Group. The September 2022 partial mobilisation formally brought in 300,000 reservists, marking a turning point. However, it was the subsequent surge in contract soldier recruitment – exceeding 400,000 in both 2023 and 2024 – that drove the most substantial expansion, demonstrating a willingness to embrace a more manpower-intensive approach. This expansion represents a reversal of decades of force structure evolution, indicating a recognition of the realities of modern, large-scale conventional warfare and the need for a more resilient manpower base.
Key Actors & Positions
The primary actors are Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. Russia, under President Putin, aims to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine – initially regime change, now focused on territorial control – and to deter further Western involvement. Its expansion of the military is framed as a defensive measure against NATO enlargement and perceived threats to its security. Ukraine, supported by Western aid, seeks to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. It’s focus is on maximising attrition on Russian forces using both traditional methods such as mines and prepared defences as well as leveraging innovative technologies like drones. NATO’s position is one of support for Ukraine – providing military and economic assistance – while simultaneously reinforcing its own defenses, particularly its eastern flank. NATO observes Russia’s force expansion with concern, recognising the potential for increased pressure in the future. Other actors, such as Belarus, play supporting roles, providing territory for Russian operations and training.
Analysis
Russia’s force expansion, while substantial, has suffered from diminishing returns on the battlefield. Simply increasing troop numbers has not compensated for limitations in leadership, training, and combined arms tactics. The emphasis on quantity over quality has led to a reliance on attrition warfare, characterised by small-unit assaults and heavy artillery bombardment. Ukrainian adaptation, coupled with Western assistance providing advanced weaponry and intelligence, has effectively negated many of Russia’s numerical advantages. Specifically, the proliferation of drones has dispersed Russian forces, limiting their ability to concentrate combat power. Despite these setbacks, the expansion has created a larger, more resilient military capable of sustaining long-term operations. The focus on contract soldiers indicates a shift away from relying heavily on conscripts, potentially allowing for greater operational flexibility and a more professional fighting force. However, the long-term sustainability of this model is uncertain, given the economic costs and the potential for declining recruitment rates. Crucially, this force expansion isn’t solely focused on Ukraine. The re-establishment and expansion of the Leningrad Military District, along with the build-up of precision strike capabilities on NATO’s borders, signal a broader strategic realignment aimed at bolstering Russia’s deterrence posture and projecting power toward Europe. This change introduces a new dimension to the security landscape and necessitates a reevaluation of NATO’s defensive planning.
Outlook
Looking ahead, Russia is likely to maintain its expanded force structure, though sustaining recruitment rates will be a key challenge. The emphasis will likely shift towards incorporating lessons learned from the conflict – particularly in the areas of drone warfare, electronic warfare, and logistical support. A prolonged stalemate in Ukraine is the most probable scenario, with Russia continuing to exert pressure and seek incremental gains. The expansion of forces near NATO’s borders is likely to persist, requiring increased vigilance and adaptation from the Alliance. While Russia’s battlefield performance in Ukraine has been disappointing, its commitment to a larger, more modernised military, even with its deficiencies, represents a significant long-term challenge to European security. A future conflict with a better-trained and equipped Russian military cannot be discounted, necessitating continuous investment in defence capabilities and enhanced deterrence measures by NATO.
Sources:
* Whisler, Greg & Kofman, Michael. (2026). A Return to Mass: Russian Force Expansion in the War with Ukraine. War on the Rocks. [https://warontherocks.com/2026/07/a-return-to-mass-russian-force-expansion-in-the-war-with-ukraine/](https://warontherocks.com/2026/07/a-return-to-mass-russian-force-expansion-in-the-war-with-ukraine/)
