Abraham Accords: Exploring the evolving landscape of Middle East normalisation, heavily influenced by US policy.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, were a series of historic agreements normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the UAE and Bahrain, later followed by Morocco and Sudan. This marked a significant shift in regional dynamics, moving beyond decades of animosity and opening doors for cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. While heralded as a breakthrough for peace, the Accords weren’t a panacea for all the region’s conflicts. They primarily bypassed the core Israeli-Palestinian issue, a decision that continues to generate debate. Today, the Accords stand as a complex web of bilateral relationships, their future trajectory heavily dependent on the evolving political landscape and, critically, consistent US engagement. The initial momentum has slowed, and sustaining the progress risks becoming increasingly challenging.
Progress Made
Successive US administrations have demonstrably shaped the normalisation agenda since the original Accords. The Trump administration, under which the initial agreements were signed, deployed significant diplomatic capital and incentivised participation through arms sales and security guarantees, particularly to the UAE. Following the change in administration, the Biden team initially adopted a more cautious approach, prioritising human rights concerns and linking security cooperation to improvements in governance within signatory states.
However, the administration didn’t fully dismantle the framework. Instead, it focused on bolstering existing ties and expanding cooperation into new domains. We’ve witnessed deepening economic partnerships: trade volume between Israel and the UAE, for example, has exceeded $2.7 billion annually, with projected increases. Technological collaboration is flourishing, particularly in renewable energy and water management. Security cooperation has continued, albeit with increased scrutiny from Washington regarding end-use restrictions on US-supplied military equipment.
Beyond the initial four states, the US has actively sought to broaden the circle of potential normalisers. While substantial breakthroughs haven’t occurred, strategic dialogue has been maintained with Saudi Arabia, and Oman has signaled increasing openness to improving relations with Israel. Recent logistical cooperation regarding the conflict in Sudan, involving the US, Israel, and regional partners, illustrates the potential for indirect normalisation through shared strategic interests. Perhaps crucially, the US has worked to integrate these nascent relationships into broader regional security architectures, aiming to create a more stable Middle East.
Challenges
Despite the visible progress, significant challenges threaten the long-term sustainability of the Abraham Accords. The most pressing of these is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The lack of substantial movement towards a two-state solution continues to fuel resentment among Palestinians and within the wider Arab world. This sentiment complicates efforts to expand normalisation, as many Arab governments remain hesitant to fully embrace Israel without addressing the Palestinian issue.
Domestic political constraints within signatory states also pose a hurdle. In Morocco and Sudan, public opinion remains divided on normalisation, and governments face pressure from opposition groups who view the agreements as a betrayal of Palestinian solidarity. Additionally, the political instability that has plagued Sudan in recent months has derailed previously planned steps towards formalisation of the agreement.
Furthermore, the shifting geopolitical landscape presents new complications. The war in Ukraine has diverted US attention and resources away from the Middle East, potentially diminishing its capacity to mediate and incentivise further normalisation. The rise of China as a regional power challenges US influence, and Beijing has pursued its own diplomatic initiatives, offering alternative forms of engagement. Finally, the internal political dynamics of the US itself, with potential shifts in administration and corresponding policy priorities, create uncertainty regarding the future level of commitment to the Accords.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords are inextricably linked to the broader regional dynamic concerning Iran. A key driver behind the initial wave of normalisation was a shared concern among Israel and several Arab states regarding Iran’s growing influence and nuclear ambitions. The Accords offered a platform for these countries to deepen security cooperation and present a united front against Tehran. The US, perceiving Iran as a destabilising force, actively encouraged this alignment.
However, the Iranian dimension also poses a risk. Iran consistently condemns the Accords as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and actively works to undermine them through support for proxy groups and rhetorical opposition. Escalations between Israel and Iran, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear programme, could further destabilise the region and potentially unravel the fragile progress achieved through normalisation. The recent, and concerning, attacks from Iranian proxies on US forces in the region, and the escalation of the conflict in Gaza, underscore this tension. The perceived weakening of the original JCPOA agreement (the Iran nuclear deal) and a more assertive Iranian foreign policy have only amplified these concerns, demanding continued US attention and diplomatic efforts.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on a recalibrated US approach. Washington must move beyond simply facilitating bilateral deals towards a more comprehensive regional strategy. This includes actively re-engaging with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even if a two-state solution remains elusive in the short term, focusing on confidence-building measures and addressing immediate practical concerns for Palestinians.
Sustaining security cooperation, particularly in areas like maritime security and counter-terrorism, is crucial. However, this cooperation must be conditioned on respect for human rights and adherence to international law. The US should also work to promote economic integration, fostering investments and trade that benefit all stakeholders in the region.
Crucially, the US needs to manage the Israel-Iran dynamic. Direct diplomacy with both countries, alongside its allies, is essential to de-escalate tensions and prevent further conflict. While the immediate prospects for a broader regional normalisation breakthrough are limited, sustaining the current level of cooperation and gradually expanding it through incremental steps remains a realistic goal. A consistent, long-term US commitment is fundamental to unlocking the Accords’ full potential and contributing to a more stable and peaceful Middle East.
Source: Compiled from analysis of publicly available reports from the US State Department, Congressional Research Service reports on US foreign policy in the Middle East, Think Tank analysis from the Middle East Institute and the Atlantic Council, and reporting from Associated Press, Reuters, and the New York Times between January 2020 and November 2023.
