Abraham Accords: Examining the shifting dynamics of normalisation between Israel and Morocco, six years after the agreement.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They saw Israel establish formal diplomatic relations with several Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco – after decades of political hostility. The driving forces behind these agreements were multifaceted, including shared concerns about Iran, economic opportunities, and a reassessment of regional priorities. While Sudan’s implementation has stalled amid internal conflict, the UAE and Bahrain have witnessed rapid economic and security cooperation with Israel. Morocco’s path has been notably more deliberate, marked by political sensitivities and a cautious approach. The Accords remain a complex and evolving phenomenon, facing both momentum and resistance, impacting regional alliances and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Today, the focus is on solidifying these partnerships, expanding cooperation beyond governments to include civil society, and navigating persistent challenges.
Progress Made
Six years after the initial agreement, Morocco’s normalisation with Israel remains a work in progress, decidedly slower in pace than the breakthroughs witnessed with the UAE and Bahrain. Despite a joint declaration in December 2020 committing both nations to full diplomatic relations, concrete advancements have been incremental. Security cooperation has been the most consistent and visible aspect of the evolving relationship. Intelligence sharing, particularly concerning counter-terrorism efforts, has deepened, and there have been joint military exercises, albeit modest in scale.
Economically, trade between Israel and Morocco has increased, reaching approximately $250 million in 2023 – a substantial rise from virtually nil prior to the Accords. Areas of focus include agriculture, water technology, and renewable energy. Israeli companies are increasingly investing in Morocco, attracted by its strategic location and growing economy. Tourism has also seen a bump, with a significant increase in Israeli visitors to Morocco, although numbers remain somewhat below pre-pandemic forecasts.
Culturally, there have been more symbolic gestures than significant shifts. Direct flights between Tel Aviv and Rabat were briefly established but suspended following the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza conflict in October 2023. Exchange programmes for students and artists exist, fostering people-to-people connections. Crucially, however, the promised opening of a liaison office in Rabat, intended as a precursor to a full Israeli embassy, has been repeatedly delayed. The key sticking point remains the Moroccan desire for reciprocal progress on the Western Sahara issue, a decades-long territorial dispute.
Challenges
Despite the security and economic benefits, several significant hurdles continue to impede the full realisation of normalisation between Morocco and Israel. The Palestinian issue remains central. Morocco consistently reiterates its support for a two-state solution and the rights of the Palestinian people. Public opinion in Morocco is overwhelmingly supportive of the Palestinians, and the government needs to balance its relationship with Israel with domestic sensitivities. The recent escalation in Gaza has demonstrably increased domestic pressure on the Moroccan government to distance itself from Israel.
The Western Sahara dispute is proving to be the most substantial obstacle. Morocco seeks US recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara, and while the Trump administration acknowledged Moroccan sovereignty in 2020 as part of the Accords, the Biden administration has subsequently reversed that position, causing frustration in Rabat. Morocco appears to be using progress on the diplomatic front – specifically the opening of a proper embassy – as leverage to secure further US support on the Western Sahara issue.
Internal Moroccan politics also play a role. The governing coalition is complex, and navigating differing viewpoints on Israel is delicate. Furthermore, concerns over potential regional backlash from other Arab nations, particularly Algeria (a key backer of the Polisario Front in Western Sahara), add another layer of complexity. The lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic headwinds have also slowed down the pace of economic cooperation.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The evolving relationship between Israel and Morocco takes place against the backdrop of escalating tensions with Iran. Both countries share concerns regarding Iran’s regional ambitions and its support for militant groups. Security cooperation, as noted earlier, is likely underpinned, in part, by shared intelligence concerning Iran’s activities. Morocco’s strong ties to the wider Arab world, and its consistent diplomatic positions, offer Israel a valuable channel of communication and influence within the region. This arrangement is discreet, and neither country actively publicises the full extent of their cooperation on this front.
However, Morocco is also acutely aware of the need to maintain a balanced foreign policy. While aligning with Israel on security concerns, it continues to engage with Iran on other issues, notably at the level of regional diplomacy. This balancing act reflects Morocco’s broader strategic goals of maintaining stability and avoiding being drawn into a larger regional conflict. From a Merlows perspective, the Morocco-Israel normalisation embodies the broader dynamic of Arab states utilising the Accords– alongside security needs – to act as regional intermediaries with Iran, pursuing de-escalation where possible.
Path Forward
The future of normalisation between Israel and Morocco is uncertain, depending critically on political developments both within Morocco and regionally. A breakthrough on the Western Sahara issue, ideally with sustained US involvement, would be the most significant catalyst for progress. Without it, further advancement will likely remain incremental and tied to security concerns.
The immediate priority for both sides will be managing the fallout from the Israel-Gaza conflict. Morocco will likely face continued domestic pressure to reassess its relationship with Israel, and any further escalation could significantly jeopardise progress. A temporary pause in high-level diplomatic engagements is probable in the short term.
Looking further ahead, strengthening economic ties, particularly in strategic sectors like renewable energy and water management, could provide a solid foundation for the relationship. Fostering deeper people-to-people connections, through expanding exchange programmes and promoting cultural understanding, is also essential. Ultimately, the success of the Accords with Morocco hinges on its ability to navigate complex domestic and regional pressures, and to deliver tangible benefits to both nations. A pragmatic, phased approach focused on mutual interests offers the most realistic path forward.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information and reports concerning Morocco’s engagement with the Abraham Accords, compiled for Merlows.com. Direct sources are not available, but this report is informed by reporting from Reuters, Associated Press, and Middle East Eye regarding Moroccan-Israeli relations.