Abraham Accords: Expanding the normalisation framework beyond the immediate neighbourhood
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They began with the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, followed swiftly by Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. The core aim was to move beyond decades of antagonism, fostering economic cooperation, diplomatic engagement and people-to-people connections. While initial momentum was strong, progress has since plateaued, and the Accords’ future remains subject to regional dynamics and the shifting priorities of involved nations. Sudan’s involvement is currently stalled following the outbreak of civil war, and Morocco’s trajectory is heavily influenced by the Western Sahara dispute. The Accords, fundamentally, are not a comprehensive peace treaty, but a series of bilateral agreements establishing formal relations where none previously existed.
Progress Made: Kazakhstan’s Entry and Regional Implications
Kazakhstan’s recent decision to open a diplomatic office in Israel, a significant step towards normalisation, marks the first formal inclusion of a Central Asian nation within the Abraham Accords framework. Though not a full normalisation agreement mirroring those signed by other Arab states, Kazakhstan’s move represents a calibrated, strategic approach. The office, opened in Tel Aviv in February 2024, will initially focus on economic ties and consular services for Kazakh citizens.
This isn’t an isolated development. Kazakhstan has historically maintained working relations with both Israel and Arab states, positioning itself as a potential mediator – reflecting its multi-vector foreign policy. This balancing act has been key. Simultaneously, Kazakhstan has been actively involved in initiatives to de-escalate regional tensions, notably offering to host peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, demonstrating its ambition to be a regional actor.
The opening of the office has been accompanied by increased talk of potential agricultural, technological and energy cooperation with Israel. Kazakhstan is rich in natural resources and seeks foreign investment to develop its economy, while Israel boasts expertise in areas such as water management and desert agriculture – skills highly valuable to the Kazakh context. Trade volume between the two nations is relatively modest currently, but Kazakh officials have explicitly linked enhancing ties with Israel to diversifying their economic partnerships beyond traditional markets. This move is also viewed as strengthening Kazakhstan’s broader engagement with the West.
Challenges: Navigating Regional Sensitivities and Domestic Considerations
Despite the apparent progress, Kazakhstan’s path towards deeper normalisation is not without its challenges. The most significant hurdle lies in navigating the sensitivities within the broader Muslim world. Kazakhstan shares close ties with key regional players like Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, both of whom have expressed varying degrees of caution regarding rapidly accelerating normalisation with Israel, particularly in the absence of progress on the Palestinian issue.
Kazakhstan’s large Muslim population also requires careful management of public perception. While the Kazakh government is not overly constrained by domestic public opinion, maintaining a delicate balance between pursuing national interests and addressing concerns over solidarity with the Palestinian people is crucial. This is accomplished through emphasising the economic benefits of closer ties and framing diplomatic engagement as supportive of regional stability – rather than a renunciation of historical positions.
Furthermore, the geopolitical landscape is complex. Russia, a strategically important partner for Kazakhstan, has a nuanced relationship with Israel and often expresses concern about increased Western influence in the region. Kazakhstan will need to assure Moscow that its growing ties with Israel do not come at the expense of their bilateral relationship. Recent uncertainties about US commitment to the region, coupled with evolving dynamics in the Ukraine war, also inject an element of caution into Kazakhstan’s calculations.
Finally, the lack of a clear, legally defined framework for “joining” the Accords – beyond the initial bilateral agreements – creates ambiguity. Kazakhstan’s step is significant but falls short of the comprehensive normalisation seen with other nations.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A New Layer of Complexity
Kazakhstan’s move towards normalisation with Israel takes place against the backdrop of a heightened confrontation between Israel and Iran. Iran views the Abraham Accords as a strategic threat, perceiving them as an attempt to isolate it and build a united front against its regional influence. Therefore, any expansion of the Accords – particularly into strategically important regions like Central Asia – is likely to be met with disapproval from Tehran.
Kazakhstan shares a long border with Iran and maintains substantial economic ties, primarily centred around trade and transport. This proximity necessitates a carefully calibrated approach to avoid antagonising Iran. Kazakhstan’s engagement with Israel focuses largely on mutually beneficial economic cooperation, deliberately eschewing any overtly political or security-related initiatives that might be perceived as provocative by Iran.
This situation presents a risk of Kazakhstan becoming caught between two competing powers. Iran has consistently sought to expand its regional influence, and its relationship with Kazakhstan is likely to be scrutinised as ties with Israel strengthen. While Kazakhstan prioritises its sovereign foreign policy, it must navigate this complex dynamic shrewdly to protect its national interests. The stability of the Caspian Sea region, where both Iran and Kazakhstan have interests, is potentially linked to this delicate balance.
Path Forward: Incremental Steps and Regional Stability
The inclusion of Kazakhstan is a noteworthy development, hinting at a broadening of the Abraham Accords’ scope beyond the Middle East. However, a rapid expansion appears unlikely in the short term. The path forward will likely involve incremental steps: further economic cooperation, increased diplomatic engagement, and potentially, eventually, full normalisation of relations.
Central Asian states like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are watching Kazakhstan’s move closely. Their own decisions will depend on a complex interplay of factors: domestic political considerations, regional dynamics, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
The success of this nascent expansion will hinge on the ability to demonstrate tangible benefits – economic opportunities, technological exchange, and enhanced regional stability. The focus on economic cooperation, as displayed by Kazakhstan, appears to be a prudent approach.
Ultimately, meaningful expansion requires a concerted regional effort. Diplomatic initiatives that address underlying tensions, promote dialogue, and foster a sense of shared security are vital. A continued US role, albeit potentially recalibrated, may be necessary to facilitate these discussions and provide necessary diplomatic cover.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding Kazakhstan’s foreign policy, regional geopolitics in Central Asia, and the Abraham Accords. It draws from reporting by Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, and specialist think tank assessments from the Middle East Institute and the Atlantic Council. Independent interviews were not undertaken for this article.
