Abraham Accords: Assessing the impact of regional power dynamics on normalisation efforts.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They saw Israel formalise diplomatic relations with four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – breaking decades of Arab consensus that conditioned recognition of Israel on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The agreements encompassed cooperation in areas ranging from trade and tourism to security and technology. While hailed as a pathway towards a more stable and integrated region by proponents, the Accords also faced criticism for potentially sidelining the Palestinian issue and exacerbating existing regional tensions, particularly with Iran. Today, the agreements remain in place, though the pace of implementation varies and the broader regional landscape continues to evolve, heavily influenced by the escalating shadow war with Iran and its proxies.
Progress Made
The past four years have witnessed concrete developments stemming from the Abraham Accords. Trade between Israel and the signatory states has flourished, reaching over $3.5 billion in 2023. The UAE and Israel have signed numerous bilateral agreements, particularly in renewable energy, water technology, and financial services. Bahrain has engaged in security cooperation with Israel, focusing on countering shared threats, and has seen a significant increase in Israeli tourists. Morocco, building on its historical ties with the Jewish community, has established diplomatic missions and deepened economic connections, notably in defence and agriculture.
Beyond economics, cultural exchanges and people-to-people initiatives have expanded, fostering greater understanding and dialogue. Israeli companies are increasingly investing in Gulf states, and vice versa. Strategic partnerships have emerged in areas such as cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. Security cooperation, although largely conducted discreetly, is believed to be expanding, particularly concerning Iranian activities and shared concerns about threats from non-state actors. The normalisation process also facilitated increased coordination around initiatives like the I2U2 group – a partnership between Israel, India, the UAE and the USA – focused on joint projects in water, energy, transportation, space, and food security. These developments underscore a tangible shift in regional dynamics, driven in part by a shared anxiety over Iran’s growing influence.
Challenges
Despite the progress, significant challenges remain. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely opposed to normalisation with Israel, and governments have navigated sensitive domestic considerations. The persistent lack of progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front continues to fuel resentment and limits the potential for broader regional acceptance of the Accords. Sudan’s participation is particularly precarious, having been stalled by the ongoing civil war and domestic political instability.
The escalating conflict in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’s attack in October 2023, has also significantly tested the Accords. While the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have maintained diplomatic relations with Israel, they have expressed strong condemnation of the scale of civilian casualties in Gaza. This delicate balancing act reflects the internal pressures these governments face, balancing their strategic interests with public sentiment and pan-Arab solidarity.
Security concerns persist, including continued Iranian support for proxy groups across the region. Recent attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea, demonstrate the fragility of regional stability. Furthermore, the potential for a more assertive Iran, particularly in the event of a nuclear breakout, could undermine the foundations of the Accords and necessitate a re-evaluation of security alignments. Internal political transitions within the signatory states also pose a risk, as future governments may adopt different foreign policy orientations.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran are central to understanding the dynamics that propelled the Abraham Accords. A key driver behind the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco’s decision to normalise relations with Israel was a shared perception of Iran as a destabilising force in the region. These Gulf states view Iran’s nuclear programme, its support for proxy groups, and its assertive regional ambitions as a direct threat to their national security.
Normalisation with Israel, backed by its advanced military capabilities and intelligence network, offered a potential counterweight to Iranian power. The prospect of enhanced security cooperation and intelligence sharing was particularly attractive. Israel’s ability to project power against Iran and its proxies, exemplified by reported strikes against Iranian facilities in Syria and elsewhere, aligns with the strategic interests of these Gulf States.
However, this alignment also introduces vulnerabilities. A wider conflict between Israel and Iran could force these countries into difficult positions, potentially escalating regional tensions and putting their economic and security gains at risk. Iran, consistently condemning the Abraham Accords as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a threat to regional security, actively seeks to undermine them through its network of allies and proxies. The recent proxy conflict emerging across the region, largely fuelled by Iranian support for Hamas and Hezbollah, is a direct consequence of this dynamic.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain, tethered to the broader trajectory of regional geopolitics and the evolving relationship between Israel and Iran. While a complete collapse of the existing agreements seems unlikely, deepening integration and expansion to include additional Arab states will be challenging. Realistically, the focus will likely shift towards consolidating the current relationships and managing the inherent tensions.
Strengthening security cooperation, particularly in areas like maritime security and air defence, will be vital for safeguarding shared interests. Economic ties are likely to continue growing, but at a more cautious pace. Addressing the Palestinian issue, however, remains crucial for achieving sustainable regional stability. Without addressing the root causes of the conflict, the Accords will remain vulnerable to setbacks and public dissatisfaction.
Further normalisation with Saudi Arabia, once considered a potential cornerstone of the Accords, remains a possibility, but is contingent on concessions to the Palestinians and a stabilised regional security landscape. The recent US mediation efforts, aimed at achieving a broader normalisation deal alongside a two-state solution, highlight the continued relevance of this goal. Ultimately, the success of the Abraham Accords hinges on a delicate balance between pragmatic strategic interests and broader regional concerns, all while navigating the ever-present shadow of Iran’s ambition.
Source Attribution
This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, expert assessments of regional dynamics, and reporting by international news agencies concerning the Abraham Accords and the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. It is informed by the title of a source document, “How Iran’s rise pushed Gulf states toward Israel,” which suggested a specific research focus for this report. Access to the original source text was not available.
