Abraham Accords: Exploring how evolving regional maritime cooperation intersects with the normalisation process.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a series of historic normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. Driven by shared concerns over Iran and a desire for economic opportunity, these accords aimed to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While Sudan’s trajectory has proven unsteady following internal conflict, the UAE and Bahrain have swiftly deepened ties with Israel, establishing diplomatic relations, trade agreements, and security collaborations. Morocco, similarly, has formalised links including security cooperation and significant economic partnerships. Beyond bilateral agreements, a key, often less reported, aspect of the Accords’ potential lies in fostering a new framework for regional security cooperation, moving beyond decades of division. This includes collaborative efforts to address common threats, like maritime security, which affects all nations bordering the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
Progress Made
The Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a multinational naval partnership headquartered in Bahrain, has been at the forefront of maritime security in the Middle East for over two decades. Traditionally focused on counter-piracy off the coast of Somalia and counter-terrorism, CMF has undergone a significant evolution in recent years, increasingly incorporating elements of the Abraham Accords dynamic. Previously dominated by Western navies – particularly the US and UK – the force is actively broadening its membership and scope.
Crucially, Israel formally joined the CMF in February 2024, a development facilitated by the breakdown of traditional barriers following the Abraham Accords. This integration marks the first time Israel has operated openly and officially as part of a multi-national security structure within the Gulf. Beyond Israel, there’s been expanded participation from partners like the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia (though Saudi Arabia is not yet a full member, it has increased its engagement).
The increased cooperation isn’t limited to simply adding new flags to task forces. CMF has been expanding its operational focus to address threats beyond piracy and terrorism. This includes countering the illicit trafficking of weapons, drugs, and people, as well as ensuring freedom of navigation in crucial waterways like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Joint exercises, information sharing, and coordinated patrols have all increased in frequency and complexity. This increased interoperability builds trust, enhancing the overall security architecture of the region. Recent exercises have specifically focused on mine counter-measures and unmanned systems, showcasing the adaptability of the force. The CMF’s command structure also reflects this growing regional ownership, with a greater emphasis on rotating leadership between partner nations.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, substantial challenges remain to the full realisation of a CMF-led, inclusive regional maritime security framework. The path toward integration hasn’t been seamless. Some regional actors continue to harbour reservations about deeper security collaboration with Israel, even if they maintain diplomatic ties under the Abraham Accords. Concerns about intelligence sharing and the potential for escalation remain pressing.
The Red Sea crisis, triggered by Houthi attacks on commercial shipping since November 2023, has exposed vulnerabilities and strains on the CMF. While CMF vessels have responded to distress calls and provided escorts, the sheer volume of attacks and the asymmetric nature of the threat posed by the Houthis have stretched the force’s capabilities. This has underscored the need for a more robust and sustainable response, which necessitates even greater burden-sharing and logistical support from all partner nations.
Internal political dynamics within member states also pose obstacles. Changes in government or shifts in national priorities can lead to decreased commitment or even withdrawal from CMF activities. Furthermore, the reliance on the US as the primary provider of naval assets and logistical support creates a perceived imbalance and dependency that some regional actors are keen to address. Countering the narrative that CMF is a tool of Western influence and ensuring genuine regional ownership is crucial for its long-term success.
Finally, mistrust lingers from past regional conflicts and ideological differences, adding a layer of complexity to operational cooperation despite the formal agreements.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The expansion of the CMF’s scope and the inclusion of Israel directly intersect with the broader geopolitical dynamics involving Iran. Iran views Israel’s growing security cooperation with Gulf Arab states as a direct threat and actively works to counter the Abraham Accords and counter-normalisation efforts. Tehran’s support for proxy groups like the Houthis, who have disrupted maritime traffic in the Red Sea, is directly linked to this opposition.
Israel’s participation in CMF is therefore perceived by Iran as a provocative move aimed at encircling the country and limiting its regional influence. This perception fuels Iranian efforts to enhance its own naval capabilities and develop asymmetric warfare tactics targeting maritime trade routes. The recent seizures of vessels linked to Iran by CMF forces, enforcing sanctions and responding to attacks, highlight the increasing, direct interaction between the force and Iranian interests.
The situation also impacts the coherence of the normalisation process. Iran actively seeks to exploit tensions and divisions within the region, leveraging the Palestinian issue and economic grievances to undermine the Accords. Success in bolstering regional maritime security, through structures like CMF, could potentially reduce Iranian leverage by mitigating the maritime threats that destabilise the region. However, a miscalculation or escalation at sea could quickly unravel the fragile progress made toward normalisation.
Path Forward
Strengthening the CMF’s capabilities and broadening its base of support is crucial for sustaining regional maritime security. This requires continued investment in advanced technologies, such as unmanned systems and artificial intelligence, as well as increased training and interoperability exercises. Importantly, it also necessitates addressing the concerns of those nations hesitant to fully embrace deeper collaboration.
A key step toward achieving a more sustainable security framework is fostering greater regional ownership of the CMF. This involves increasing the contributions of partner nations beyond simply providing naval assets, including logistical support, intelligence sharing, and financial resources. The development of a shared regional threat assessment, encompassing not just traditional security concerns but also emerging challenges like climate change and cyber threats, will be essential.
Ultimately, the success of CMF – and the broader prospects for regional stability – depend on a broader diplomatic effort aimed at de-escalating tensions between Iran and its regional rivals. Dialogue and confidence-building measures, alongside a commitment to international law and freedom of navigation, are paramount. Expanding the CMF’s remit to include humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations could also build trust and demonstrate the force’s commitment to the well-being of the entire region.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information concerning the Combined Maritime Forces, regional security dynamics in the Middle East, and developments related to the Abraham Accords. Extended consultation and direct engagement with CMF officials were not possible for this report.
