Abraham Accords:
The recent Gaza ceasefire presents a potential, though uncertain, window for reinvigorating diplomatic efforts linked to the Abraham Accords, raising questions about their broader impact on regional stability.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. They formalised diplomatic relations between Israel and several Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan – after decades of non-recognition. They stemmed from shared concerns regarding Iranian influence and a desire for economic cooperation, underpinned by US security guarantees. While Sudan’s transition remains fragile and full normalisation stalled following the October 2023 conflict, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have demonstrably deepened ties with Israel. Despite anticipated expansion to include Saudi Arabia before the October 2023 events, those negotiations were put on hold. The accords were met with resistance from Palestinians who felt abandoned by their Arab allies and criticism from some quarters as circumventing the traditional path of a two-state solution. Presently, the accords stand as a complex web of bilateral agreements, economic partnerships, and security collaborations, existing alongside unresolved regional conflicts.
Progress Made
The recent ceasefire in Gaza, meticulously negotiated with Qatari mediation and US support, offers a potential, albeit tenuous, stepping stone towards renewed diplomatic activity. Immediately following the truce – which came into effect on 26 May 2024 – there have been discreet communications between various parties involved in the Abraham Accords. Specifically, Emirati and Bahraini officials have signaled a willingness to continue economic cooperation with Israel, with a focus on projects within the framework of previously agreed-upon initiatives. Trade relations, though impacted by regional instability, haven’t been entirely severed.
Furthermore, the ceasefire is offering a space for re-evaluation of security coordination. Prior to October 2023, Israel engaged in increasingly close security cooperation with UAE and Bahrain, including intelligence sharing and joint military exercises, largely geared towards countering Iranian-backed proxies. Though these operations were paused during the peak of the Gaza conflict, there are indications that discussions are resuming to re-establish such collaboration, albeit with a renewed emphasis on assurances regarding Palestinian well-being.
The truce also provides a much-needed opportunity to refocus on broader regional infrastructure projects under discussion prior to the outbreak of war, such as the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). These projects, which include the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel and others, aim to boost trade and connectivity, and represent a tangible economic benefit for all involved. The current calm offers a chance to revive that momentum, whilst addressing concerns about inclusivity.
Challenges
Despite the positive signals, significant challenges remain. The overarching issue is the deeply entrenched Israeli-Palestinian conflict, simmering beneath the surface of any diplomatic initiatives. The complete lack of progress regarding a pathway towards a two-state solution continues to fuel resentment and instability across the region, undermining the long-term sustainability of any normalisation efforts. Palestinian Authority officials maintain that normalisation with Israel should not proceed without substantive progress on Palestinian statehood.
The war in Gaza has also exposed fissures within the Arab world. A degree of public opposition to normalisation remains strong, particularly within Jordan and across many parts of the Gulf. Public sentiment heavily influenced by the extent of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the mounting civilian death toll. Governments maintaining ties with Israel face domestic pressure to recalibrate their policies.
Moreover, escalating tensions elsewhere in the region – including continued Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and intermittent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – threaten to destabilize the fragile truce and dampen any appetite for renewed diplomacy. The risk of these proxy conflicts widening significantly remains high, potentially drawing in regional and international actors. Any miscalculation or escalation could derail all current normalisation efforts. The sheer scale of destruction in Gaza will necessitate a long-term rebuilding process and create ongoing demands on regional resources, potentially diverting attention and funding from other initiatives.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The uneasy calm in Gaza coincides with a period of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. Iran’s support for Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups is a key factor in the ongoing conflict. Israel views Iran as an existential threat and has repeatedly stated its determination to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. This dynamic directly impacts the context of the Abraham Accords.
The accords were partly predicated on the idea of building a united front against Iranian influence. However, the October 2023 conflict underscored the limitations of this approach. While the UAE and Bahrain share Israel’s concerns about Iran, they also maintain channels of communication with Tehran, reflecting a more nuanced foreign policy approach. A further escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict could potentially fracture the nascent alignment built through the accords. It could also force Arab states to choose sides, undermining any prospect of broader regional cooperation. Ultimately, the success of the Abraham Accords and the broader trajectory of normalisation hinges on preventing a full-scale regional war involving Iran.
Path Forward
The path forward is fraught with uncertainty. The immediate priority must be to consolidate the ceasefire in Gaza and translate it into a durable political settlement that addresses the fundamental causes of the conflict. This will require sustained international mediation, a commitment from all parties to de-escalation, and a renewed focus on humanitarian relief.
Reviving the Abraham Accords will necessitate a more inclusive approach, acknowledging Palestinian concerns and addressing the structural inequalities that perpetuate the conflict. Focusing on joint economic projects that benefit all parties, including Palestinians, could help build trust and foster a sense of shared ownership.
Continuing discreet diplomatic efforts, such as those undertaken by Qatar and the United States, is crucial. Dialogue and confidence-building measures are essential to managing tensions and preventing further escalation. Ideally, the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalisation should also be revived, it would signal a profound shift in regional dynamics. However, this will only be possible if significant progress is made towards a sustainable resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Realistically, progress will be incremental, and setbacks are inevitable. But maintaining a commitment to diplomacy and regional cooperation remains the most viable path towards lasting stability.
Source: Merlows editorial team; reporting based on analysis of public statements from regional governments, think tank analysis and press reporting relating to the cessation of hostilities in Gaza (26 May 2024).