Abraham Accords: A framework for diplomatic and economic integration, now increasingly defined by energy cooperation.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relationships in the Middle East. Initially focused on normalising relations between Israel and four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan – the Accords aimed to move beyond decades of conflict and foster cooperation. While Sudan’s journey remains stalled amid internal conflict, diplomatic ties with the UAE and Bahrain have deepened. Morocco’s relationship follows a similar trajectory, concentrated on security and cultural exchange. However, the Accords’ evolution has seen a growing emphasis on economic partnerships, specifically focusing on energy. This report examines how Israel’s natural gas resources, particularly the Leviathan and Tamar fields, are now anchoring broader regional trade and contributing to the Accords’ continued, if uneven, development.
Progress Made
The exploitation of Israel’s offshore natural gas reserves—Leviathan and Tamar—has become a key pillar supporting the economic dimension of the Abraham Accords. For years, these fields were largely untapped due to domestic demand and a lack of significant export infrastructure. The Accords opened new avenues, most prominently through a landmark deal with Egypt. In 2022, Israel began exporting natural gas to Egypt via the East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) pipeline, reversing a historical dynamic where Egypt was a key supplier to Israel. This gas is then re-exported as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) by Egypt to Europe, helping to diversify the continent’s energy sources and lessen reliance on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine.
Beyond Egypt, Israel is actively pursuing further energy cooperation. Discussions are ongoing with Jordan regarding increased gas supplies, and while details are sensitive, progress is being made regarding infrastructure development. The UAE, though not directly importing Israeli gas, is invested in the energy sector within Israel, with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) participating in exploration licenses. This investment signals a broader strategic alignment, utilising Israeli expertise and resources.
The economic benefits are demonstrable. Israel’s gas exports have generated billions of dollars in revenue, boosting its economy. Egypt benefits from transit fees and increased LNG production, bolstering its own financial position. Cooperation extends beyond supply. Israeli companies are involved in joint projects with Jordanian and Emirati partners focusing on renewable energy, water desalination—critical in the region’s arid climate—and technological innovation within the energy sector. Furthermore, the emergence of the EastMed gas forum, which includes Israel, Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Jordan and Palestine, demonstrates a nascent regional energy governance structure.
Challenges
Despite these gains, significant challenges temper the optimistic outlook. The initial enthusiasm surrounding the Accords has been cooled by several factors. The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a major impediment. Continued settlement expansion and lack of substantive progress toward a two-state solution creates resentment and limits the Accords’ potential for broader regional acceptance. For Arab states, particularly those with popular opinion sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, demonstrable progress on the Palestinian issue is often presented as a prerequisite for further normalisation.
Geopolitical tensions are also at play. Turkey, a regional power with an often-antagonistic relationship with Israel and Egypt, has challenged maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean, competing with the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum’s influence. Additionally, concerns over revenue sharing and infrastructure security – particularly regarding the EMG pipeline – persist.
Internal political instability within the partner countries further complicates matters. Changes in government in Israel, for example, can lead to shifts in policy and potentially stall ongoing negotiations. Economic downturns or domestic priorities in Egypt or Jordan could also impact commitment to energy agreements. Furthermore, questions around environmental sustainability and the long-term impact of increased gas production continue to be raised by advocacy groups and within some partner governments. The fluctuating global gas market also introduces uncertainty, potentially affecting profitability and long-term viability of investments.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The expanding energy cooperation between Israel and its Arab neighbours directly impacts the regional security landscape, particularly concerning Iran. Iran views the strengthening ties between Israel and Arab states as a strategic threat, perceiving it as an attempt to create a united front against its influence.
Israel’s gas exports, facilitated by the Accords, not only bolster its own economy but also reduce Europe’s reliance on Iranian energy. This diminishes Iran’s leverage over European economies and weakens its geopolitical position. Specifically, Iran has repeatedly warned against any energy cooperation that it perceives as undermining its interests, accusing Israel of attempting to destabilise the region.
The perceived threat from Iran is often cited by the Arab states involved in the Accords as justification for closer security cooperation with Israel. This creates a virtuous, yet potentially escalating, cycle of alliance building. Increased joint military exercises and intelligence sharing are frequently reported, strengthening the security architecture outlined implicitly by the Accords. However, this escalation also runs the risk of triggering retaliatory action from Iran and its regional proxies, potentially undermining the stability the Accords aim to foster.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords, and particularly its energetic component, hinges on navigating these complex realities. Incremental progress, focusing on concrete, mutually beneficial projects, appears to be the most realistic trajectory. Expanding the number of participating countries, beyond the initial signatories, will be critical. Saudi Arabia remains the “holy grail” of normalisation, and significant energy partnerships would likely be a key component of any future agreement.
Despite the political hurdles, the economic incentives—particularly in the energy sector—are strong enough to sustain, and possibly even expand, cooperation. Continued investment in infrastructure, such as pipelines and LNG terminals, will be vital. Furthermore, diversification within the energy sector – exploring renewable energy sources alongside natural gas – is crucial for long-term sustainability and regional stability.
A key element for progress is managing expectations. Full, comprehensive peace settlements are unlikely in the short term. Therefore, focusing on practical cooperation in areas like energy, water, and technology, while compartmentalising the more intractable political issues, is the most viable path forward. This requires sustained diplomatic engagement, compromise and a recognition by all parties that a pragmatic, long-term approach is essential for unlocking the full potential of the Abraham Accords.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, including industry reports on regional energy markets, diplomatic briefings from Middle East policy analysts, and news reporting from credible international news outlets focusing on the Abraham Accords and regional energy trends. Specific data points regarding gas exports and LNG production are derived from reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and market intelligence firms specialising in the energy sector. Due to the sensitive nature of some agreements, direct sourcing from official government statements has been supplemented with independent analysis.
