Abraham Accords:
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relations in the Middle East, initially normalising relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. While Sudan’s participation remains stalled, the Accords have broadly fostered increased cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. Today, the focus is shifting from initial normalisation to deeper integration and the potential for expansion to include other regional actors, a process fraught with both opportunity and risk.
Progress Made
The past year has seen a consolidation of the gains made through the Abraham Accords, alongside tentative steps towards broadening their scope. Trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain continues to expand, exceeding $3.5 billion in 2025 according to Reuters data [4]. This includes significant investment flows into sectors such as technology, renewable energy, and tourism. Beyond economics, security cooperation, particularly around perceived shared threats like Iran, has deepened.
A notable development is Kazakhstan’s increasingly active role as a mediator and facilitator, signalling a new phase for the Accords where non-regional actors are playing a crucial role in sustaining momentum [1]. This includes providing platforms for dialogue and offering logistical support for economic ventures. Furthermore, discussions are underway regarding potential cooperation on water security and food security projects, reflecting a broader shift towards tackling regional challenges collectively. The Manara Magazine reports these initiatives are contributing to a reshaping of the post-war Middle East [3], demonstrating a willingness from stakeholders to forge new partnerships.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, the Abraham Accords face considerable headwinds. The ongoing conflict in Gaza continues to cast a long shadow, raising questions about the sustainability of normalisation efforts and creating domestic pressures within signatory countries. Critically, the situation has underscored the limitations of the Accords in addressing the core Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a prerequisite for broader regional acceptance according to many observers.
Sudan’s promised normalisation remains on hold due to the ongoing civil war, hindering further progress on that front. Internal political dynamics within the signatory states also pose challenges. Public opinion in some countries remains sceptical of closer ties with Israel, creating sensitivity around further integration. Moreover, geopolitical tensions and fluctuating oil prices impact economic cooperation and investment plans. The Atlas Institute highlights the varying needs and strategic priorities of each nation as a continuing factor limiting a unified, cohesive approach [5].
Israel-Iran Dimension
The evolving dynamic between Israel and Iran remains central to the Abraham Accords’ trajectory. The Accords are, in part, a response to Iran’s regional influence and its nuclear programme, and the alignment of several Arab states with Israel is predicated on a shared concern regarding Tehran. However, escalating tensions and open conflict—as witnessed following the attack on Iranian consular facilities in Damascus and subsequent retaliatory strikes—risk undermining the stability that the Accords sought to establish.
Advocates for expanding the Accords envision a future where a stable and reconciled Iran could also become a participant, albeit a distant prospect currently. Some voices, like those in the Times of Israel blog [6], posit that a future free Iran, potentially resulting from internal pressures, could eventually see a shift in its relationship with Israel. Any further escalation between Israel and Iran poses a direct threat to the Accords’ framework by amplifying regional instability and potentially prompting a reassessment of alliances.
Path Forward
Looking ahead, sustaining the Abraham Accords requires a nuanced and pragmatic approach. The immediate priority is to de-escalate regional tensions, particularly those involving Iran and Israel, and to reaffirm commitment to dialogue. Parallel efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even through incremental steps, are vital to expand the Accords’ base of support.
Kazakhstan’s role as a mediator will likely become even more important, facilitating discreet negotiations and trust-building measures. Deeper economic integration, focusing on projects with tangible benefits for all stakeholders, will also be crucial. Realistically, expansion to include Saudi Arabia remains the most significant potential game-changer, but hinges on resolution of the Palestinian question and security guarantees. Ultimately, the Accords must demonstrate their capacity to deliver concrete benefits for regional stability and prosperity to secure their long-term future.
Source Attribution:
[1] Middle East Institute (MEI): Kazakhstan’s Entry Signals a New Phase for the Abraham Accords, January 2026. [https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf](https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf)
[2] Wikipedia: Abraham Accords, Accessed October 26, 2026. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords)
[3] Manara Magazine: The Post-War Middle East: A Region Reshaped, February 2026. [https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/)
[4] Reuters: What are the Abraham Accords?, September 15, 2025. [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/)
[5] Atlas Institute: The Geopolitics of the Abraham Accords, Accessed October 26, 2026. [https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/)
[6] Times of Israel Blogs: Dawn of Unity: A Vision for a Free Iran and Israel, Accessed October 26, 2026. [https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/](https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/)