Abraham Accords: A framework for regional diplomatic and economic realignment, facing headwinds but showing resilience.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Initiated under the Trump administration, these agreements normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the UAE and Bahrain, followed by Morocco and Sudan. The core principle involved establishing diplomatic ties, fostering economic cooperation, and promoting people-to-people exchanges, largely in exchange for Israel pausing its controversial plans for annexation of Palestinian territories. Today, the Accords exist as a series of bilateral agreements, varying in depth and breadth, but collectively aiming to challenge decades of entrenched hostility. While Sudan’s progress has stalled following the October 2021 coup, and Morocco continues to navigate concerns over Palestinian statehood, the UAE and Bahrain have established robust and growing relationships with Israel, serving as key indicators of the Accords’ potential, and ongoing fragility.
Progress Made
The recent resumption of flydubai flights to Tel Aviv marks a notable, and symbolic, step in the ongoing normalisation process. Though flights were suspended following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza last October, the swift reinstatement signifies a commitment to maintaining these newfound connections despite enduring security concerns. This resumption isn’t just about tourism; it’s a demonstration of open skies policies being put into practice. Prior to October, the UAE and Bahrain opening their airspace to Israeli civilian flights substantially reduced flight times between Israel and destinations across Asia, demonstrating practical economic benefits stemming from the Accords.
Beyond aviation, trade between Israel and its new partners has witnessed substantial growth. Bilateral trade with the UAE exceeded $2.5 billion in 2023, and with Bahrain it reached over $70 million, encompassing sectors like technology, food security, energy, and tourism. Numerous Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) have been signed, covering areas from scientific research to cultural exchange programmes. Israeli companies are increasingly investing in the Gulf states, and vice versa. Tourism, while initially hampered by the pandemic and then by conflict, is rebounding, with significant numbers of Emirati and Bahraini citizens visiting Israel, and Israelis exploring destinations in the Gulf.
Furthermore, security cooperation, though largely conducted discreetly, is expanding. Joint military exercises and intelligence sharing, primarily focused on countering Iran’s regional influence, are quietly underway. The creation of a new regional security architecture, incorporating Israel and its Arab partners, is a long-term ambition being discussed, a move that reflects a shared concern over instability and external threats.
Challenges
Despite these advances, the Abraham Accords face significant challenges. The lingering Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a major impediment. Many Arab citizens, and governments, express unease at the perceived prioritisation of normalisation with Israel over progress towards a two-state solution. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely critical of Israel, limiting the scope for broader, grassroots acceptance of the accords. The political instability in Sudan, and the subsequent suspension of its normalisation process, serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of these agreements, dependent as they often are on internal political dynamics.
The war in Gaza, and the humanitarian crisis it engendered, posed the most immediate and serious test to the Accords. Strong public condemnation of Israeli military actions across the Arab world created pressure on governments that had normalised relations with Israel. While the UAE and Bahrain maintained their diplomatic ties, they also vocally criticised Israeli policies, creating a diplomatic tightrope walk. Their reassurances to Palestine alongside ongoing relations with Israel have been interpreted differently domestically.
Scepticism lingers regarding the genuine depth of the relationships. Concerns exist that the economic incentives driving the Accords – primarily the promise of increased investment and improved security cooperation – may not be sustainable in the long run without substantial progress on the Palestinian issue. Furthermore, the potential for future shifts in leadership within the signatory nations could jeopardise the current trajectory of normalisation.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The evolving relationship between Israel and Iran profoundly impacts the trajectory of the Abraham Accords. The perceived shared threat posed by Iran is a key driver behind the strengthened ties between Israel and Gulf states. Both view Iran’s nuclear programme and its support for regional proxies as destabilising forces. The Accords offer these countries a new framework for cooperation in addressing this perceived threat, bypassing longstanding antagonisms.
However, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly following the devastating attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024, and the subsequent retaliatory strikes, increase the risk of a wider regional conflict. Such a conflict could potentially undermine the entire normalisation process, forcing Arab states to reassess their relationships with Israel. The potential for Iran to seek closer ties with regional actors opposed to the Accords further complicates the situation.
The United States’ role is similarly crucial. Decreased US engagement in the region, or a shift in US policy towards Iran, would create uncertainty and potentially weaken the security guarantees underpinning the Accords. The focus on normalisation as a strategy to contain Iran is predicated on a consistent US commitment to regional stability.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on maintaining a delicate balance. Continued economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges will be vital in building resilience against political headwinds. However, addressing the Palestinian issue, even incrementally, is crucial for fostering wider regional acceptance. Failure to do so risks perpetuating the perception that normalisation is solely a security-driven initiative, rather than a genuine pursuit of comprehensive peace.
Realistically, a full resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a distant prospect. Focus should, therefore, be on practical steps demonstrating a commitment to improving the lives of Palestinians, such as easing restrictions on movement and trade, and fostering economic opportunities. Strengthening regional security coordination to de-escalate tensions and prevent further conflict is paramount.
The United States maintaining a consistent and engaged diplomatic presence in the region will be crucial. A focus on facilitating dialogue, mediating disputes, and providing security assurances can help sustain the momentum towards normalisation. The potential for expanding the Accords to include Saudi Arabia, while enormously significant, is contingent on progress in the Israeli-Palestinian context and improved regional stability.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords, recent news reporting regarding flydubai’s resumption of flights to Tel Aviv, and broader trends in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Specific data regarding trade figures are sourced from reports published by the Israeli Ministry of Economy and Industry and the respective Gulf states’ commerce ministries. Expert commentary informs the assessment of risks and opportunities, however, specific individuals were not quoted to maintain impartiality and focus on the broader evolving geopolitical context.