Abraham Accords: Two years on, the impact of shifting power dynamics and missile proliferation present both opportunities and threats.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, saw the normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab nations, most notably the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These agreements, alongside subsequent developments with Morocco and Sudan, represented a significant recalibration of the regional order, largely driven by shared concerns over Iran and its regional influence. The underpinning logic was a shift from conflict avoidance through opposition to Iran, to a perception that cooperation with Israel offered a more effective route to security and economic benefits. However, the accords haven’t ushered in an era of seamless peace. The Palestinian issue remains unresolved, and the security landscape continues to evolve, particularly concerning ballistic missile proliferation and the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran. These factors are increasingly shaping the future trajectory of normalisation and regional stability.
Progress Made: Expanding Security Cooperation & Trade
Since the signing of the accords, tangible progress has unfolded across several key areas. Economic ties have visibly strengthened. Trade between Israel and the UAE surpassed $2.5 billion in 2022, with forecasts predicting further growth in sectors like tourism, technology and renewable energy. Similar, though less dramatic, increases have been observed with Bahrain and Morocco. Beyond commerce, security cooperation has become a central pillar of the evolving relationships. While much of this collaboration is discreet, it includes joint military exercises, intelligence sharing regarding Iranian activities, and nascent developments in air defence systems.
Critically, this security aspect extends beyond shared signals intelligence. There’s been a marked escalation in cooperative efforts to counter drone warfare, a tactic increasingly employed by Iranian-backed groups. Israeli expertise in this area is highly valued by its new partners. The UAE, in particular, has recognised the potential for robust, interoperable defensive systems – a direct consequence of experiencing drone attacks on its territory.
Furthermore, diplomatic engagements have become routine. High-level delegations regularly crisscross the region, building personal relationships and solidifying political frameworks. The establishment of Israeli embassies in Abu Dhabi and Manama, and reciprocal openings elsewhere, demonstrates a clear commitment to maintaining and deepening these ties. This has occurred despite – and at times because of – evolving perceptions of the threats posed by Iran’s burgeoning missile capabilities. The recognition of a common threat has served as a catalyst for closer coordination.
Challenges: Palestinian Grievances & Regional Instability
Despite the positive developments, significant challenges remain. The Palestinian issue persists as a major point of contention. While the Abraham Accords signatories have publicly supported a two-state solution, progress towards this goal has stalled, and the perception that normalisation prioritises relations with Israel over Palestinian rights fuels resentment and instability. This sentiment is particularly strong among Palestinian communities, leading to periodic escalations in violence and reinforcing the narratives of those opposed to normalisation.
Regional instability, fuelled by proxy conflicts and economic hardship, also presents a significant obstacle. The ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon create breeding grounds for non-state actors and provide Iran with opportunities to expand its influence. These conflicts divert resources and attention away from normalisation efforts and raise the risk of wider regional escalation.
Furthermore, fluctuating political landscapes within the signatory countries themselves create uncertainties. Domestic pressures and shifting political priorities could potentially lead to a recalibration of foreign policy, putting the future of these partnerships into question. The internal political situations in countries like Lebanon and Jordan, which have not normalised relations with Israel, also impact the overall regional climate. These nations are navigating complex domestic and geopolitical considerations that continue to overshadow potential normalisation efforts.
Israel-Iran Dimension: Escalating Tensions and Missile Proliferation
The Iranian ballistic missile programme is arguably the most pressing security concern driving the post-Abraham Accords dynamics. Iran’s development and proliferation of ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles, have prompted a re-evaluation of deterrence strategies across the region. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, in particular, feel increasingly vulnerable to Iranian missile attacks, and this vulnerability heavily influenced their decision to pursue closer security ties with Israel, which possesses advanced missile defence systems like Iron Dome and David’s Sling.
Israel views Iran’s missile capabilities as an existential threat, and has repeatedly stated it will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. This has manifested in covert operations aimed at disrupting Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, often attributed to Israel, increasing tensions and the risk of miscalculation. The exchange of threats and retaliatory actions, notably the recent attacks in Isfahan (widely attributed to Israel), demonstrates this escalating dynamic.
Critically, the proliferation of ballistic missiles to non-state actors, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen, significantly complicates matters. These groups, backed by Iran, pose direct threats to regional stability and the interests of both Israel and its Arab partners. The accords have, therefore, been accompanied by a growing focus on bolstering regional air defence capabilities and enhancing intelligence sharing to counter this threat – effectively creating a new, and complex, arithmetic of deterrence.
Path Forward: Incremental Steps & Regional Dialogue
The path forward for the Abraham Accords is likely to be incremental and heavily influenced by the evolving security landscape. Further normalisation agreements with countries like Saudi Arabia, while still facing considerable obstacles, remain a possibility. However, these will likely be contingent on demonstrable progress towards de-escalation with Iran and a more robust regional security architecture.
A key consideration will be the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the Iran nuclear deal. While the prospects of a full restoration appear dim, any agreement that verifiably limits Iran’s nuclear programme and addresses its ballistic missile activities would ease tensions and create a more conducive environment for further normalisation.
Ultimately, fostering greater regional dialogue and addressing the underlying causes of instability – including economic inequalities and political grievances – will be crucial. This requires sustained diplomatic efforts, a continued focus on building trust, and a recognition that lasting peace requires addressing the needs and concerns of all parties involved, including the Palestinians. The focus will be less on grandiose gestures and more on pragmatic steps to manage risks and build confidence in a constantly shifting geopolitical situation.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, including reporting from Reuters, Associated Press, The Times of Israel, Al Monitor, and statements from government officials and regional experts. The information regarding ballistic missile developments and regional security dynamics draws from a considered understanding of the “Ballistic missiles and the new arithmetic of deterrence” theme. Specific source quotations and data were unavailable due to the limitations of the supplied prompt.
