Abraham Accords: A realignment of Middle Eastern diplomacy, now tested by evolving security threats.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant, though incomplete, recalibration of Middle Eastern political alignments. Beginning with the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, followed by similar agreements with Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, the Accords aimed to foster economic cooperation, diplomatic engagement, and ultimately, greater regional stability. While the initial momentum saw flourishing trade and tourism, and unprecedented open dialogue, the Accords haven’t delivered a comprehensive peace settlement with the Palestinians. Currently, the agreements exist alongside longstanding regional tensions, particularly the shadow of Iran and its proxy network, and a complex web of competing geopolitical interests. The focus has gradually shifted from purely diplomatic advancement towards tangible security architecture, something the recent escalation of ballistic missile development highlights.
Progress Made: Enhanced Security Cooperation & Intelligence Sharing
The normalisation agreements spurred a rapid increase in security cooperation between Israel and its new partners. Initial focus lay on intelligence sharing relating to Iran’s nuclear programme and regional activities. However, this evolved to encompass a broader spectrum of security challenges, most notably countering ballistic missile threats. Several joint military exercises – often unpublicised – have taken place, ostensibly focused on air defence and maritime security.
The UAE, in particular, has become a key partner in establishing a robust, coordinated response to ballistic missile attacks. Following Houthi attacks on Abu Dhabi in early 2022, Israel provided critical defensive assistance, including technology and expertise. This assistance wasn’t simply reactive; it fuelled a collaborative approach to early warning systems and interceptor capabilities.
Bahrain has similarly deepened security ties with Israel, participating in joint naval drills and benefiting from Israeli expertise in counter-terrorism and cyber security. Morocco, while geographically further removed from the immediate ballistic missile threat, has focussed security cooperation on counter-extremism initiatives and intelligence sharing related to regional terrorist networks. Sudan’s involvement remains the most fragile, impacted by internal political instability, but initial talks regarding security cooperation did occur before the recent conflict eruption. A subtle but notable development has been the quiet integration of these countries’ air defence networks, allowing for better situational awareness and a more coordinated response to potential threats.
Challenges: Proliferation, Proxy Warfare & Lingering Distrust
Despite increased cooperation, substantial challenges remain. The primary concern is the rapid proliferation of ballistic and cruise missiles throughout the region. Proliferation isn’t limited to state actors; Non-state actors like the Houthis in Yemen and various Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have demonstrated increasingly sophisticated capabilities. This necessitates a constantly evolving defensive posture, and the cost of that is substantial.
The success of the Accords is predicated on a shared assessment of the threat posed by Iran. However, perspectives vary. While countries like the UAE and Bahrain publicly share Israel’s concerns, Morocco and Sudan historically maintained a more nuanced approach. These differences impact the willingness to openly confront Iran or participate in collective security measures.
Furthermore, the Accords haven’t addressed the root causes of regional instability. The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to serve as a focal point for resentment and a rallying cry for extremist groups. A lack of substantial progress on Palestinian statehood undermines the narrative of a truly inclusive regional peace.
Another challenge is lingering distrust. Decades of animosity and conflicting geopolitical agendas haven’t simply vanished. Maintaining momentum requires consistent diplomatic engagement and a willingness to address concerns on all sides. Internal political dynamics within each of the Accords countries also present potential hurdles; changes in leadership or shifts in public opinion could impact the commitment to the agreements. The recent conflict in Sudan vividly demonstrates the fragility of political stability in the region, and how quickly security gains can be reversed.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A New Strategic Calculation
The increasing ballistic missile threat is directly linked to the escalating rivalry between Israel and Iran. Iran views ballistic missiles as a crucial deterrent against both Israel and the United States, and as a means of projecting power throughout the region. Israel, in turn, considers Iran’s missile programme an existential threat, and has repeatedly stated its determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
The Abraham Accords, while not explicitly aimed at confronting Iran, have fundamentally altered the strategic calculation. Israel now has access to expanded intelligence-gathering capabilities and potential military basing options in the Gulf, significantly enhancing its ability to monitor and potentially counter Iran’s activities. The UAE’s vulnerability to ballistic missile attacks has, ironically, brought it closer to Israel, creating a stronger alliance focused on deterring Iranian aggression.
This dynamic has prompted Iran to recalibrate its strategy. Instead of direct confrontation, Iran increasingly relies on its network of proxies to carry out attacks targeting regional adversaries, including Israel and its partners. The Houthis’ sustained missile and drone attacks against the UAE and Saudi Arabia exemplify this tactic. This proxy warfare reduces the risk of direct escalation with Israel or the US, while still allowing Iran to exert pressure and disrupt regional stability. The increased proliferation of missile technology to these proxies is a direct response to the strengthening of the Israel-UAE security arc.
Path Forward: Deterrence, De-escalation & Diplomatic Off-Ramps
The immediate priority must be strengthening regional deterrence. This requires continued investment in advanced air defence systems, cooperative intelligence sharing, and joint military exercises. A coordinated response to ballistic missile attacks – demonstrating a unified front – is vital to raising the cost of aggression for Iran and its proxies.
However, deterrence alone is insufficient. De-escalation efforts, facilitated by external actors (the US particularly), are crucial. Re-establishing dialogue with Iran – even on a limited basis – could help manage tensions and prevent miscalculation. The nuclear deal (JCPOA) remains a potential avenue for de-escalation, but its revival appears increasingly unlikely in the short term.
Furthermore, broadening the scope of the Abraham Accords to include other regional actors – particularly Saudi Arabia – could create a more comprehensive security framework. While a full normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains a complex undertaking, progress is being made through US mediation. A broader coalition committed to regional stability would be better equipped to address shared challenges.
Ultimately, a sustainable path forward requires addressing the underlying drivers of conflict. Renewed efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, alongside a commitment to inclusive governance and economic development, are essential to building a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East.
Sources: This report is based on publicly available information, analysis of open-source intelligence data pertaining to regional security dynamics, and informed assessments derived from the thematic focus of Ballistic missiles and the new arithmetic of deterrence. Direct interviews were not conducted for this report, but reporting from established international news organizations and think tanks specializing in Middle East security was consulted to provide context and background information.
