Abraham Accords:
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations – the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – marking a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. While Sudan’s progress has stalled, and ties with Morocco have experienced tensions, the UAE and Bahrain maintain robust, expanding partnerships with Israel. The Accords were underpinned by shared concerns over Iran and a desire for economic cooperation, but their future hinges on navigating both regional complexities and domestic political factors within signatory states.
Progress Made
The past year has witnessed a continued deepening of economic ties between Israel and its Abraham Accords partners, especially the UAE and Bahrain. Trade volume continues to climb, with projections estimating billions of dollars in exchange by the end of 2026 (MEI, 2026). Beyond trade, cooperation has expanded into sectors such as technology, tourism, and renewable energy. Israel and the UAE have collaborated on space exploration initiatives, and Bahrain has strengthened security cooperation with Israel, reflecting shared strategic interests.
Importantly, 2026 has seen Kazakhstan signalling intent to participate in the framework, though not through full normalisation. This involvement, focused on facilitating dialogue and economic cooperation, represents a potential new phase for the Accords – moving towards a broader, more inclusive platform (MEI, 2026). This move suggests a broadening ambition, extending beyond direct normalisation agreements to encompass a network of states supporting regional stability. Even Sudan, despite internal political turmoil impacting its original commitments, maintains unofficial channels of communication, suggesting a potential pathway to resuming the normalisation process should conditions stabilise.
Challenges
Despite the demonstrable progress, the Abraham Accords face significant headwinds. Sudan’s ongoing civil war has effectively halted any further steps towards formalising its agreement with Israel. Morocco-Israel relations have experienced periods of strain, stemming from the US policy on Western Sahara, a disputed territory Morocco claims. Domestic political considerations within the signatory states also play a role; public opinion in some Arab countries remains wary of closer ties with Israel, creating a delicate balancing act for governments.
Furthermore, the agreements have not resolved the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – a factor that continues to fuel regional resentment and complicates broader acceptance of the Accords. The absence of meaningful progress on a two-state solution remains a major obstacle, as many Arab states are reluctant to fully embrace normalisation without addressing Palestinian grievances (Manara Magazine, 2026). This dynamic creates a constant tension, requiring ongoing diplomatic efforts to manage perceptions and foster inclusivity.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shadow of Iran looms large over the Abraham Accords. A key driver behind the initial impetus for the Accords was a shared perception of Iran’s destabilising regional influence. The signatories viewed closer ties with Israel as a strategic hedge against Iranian expansionism and a means of bolstering regional security. However, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly since October 2023, have complicated the landscape.
While the Accords haven’t fundamentally altered the core dynamics of the Israel-Iran rivalry, they have arguably provided Israel with greater regional support and diplomatic leverage. The prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons continues to be a major concern, and the Accords offer a platform for fostering collaboration on security matters. Conversely, Iran views the Accords as a direct challenge to its regional standing and actively works to undermine them, supporting proxy groups and exploiting existing regional divisions. A blog published by the Times of Israel highlights a vision of a unified front against Iranian hegemony as a prerequisite for lasting regional peace (Times of Israel, 2026).
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords is uncertain, but a complete collapse appears unlikely. The economic benefits and strategic advantages for the signatory states are too significant to readily discard. The inclusion of Kazakhstan marks an intriguing, if tentative, expansion of the framework’s scope beyond direct normalisation. A pragmatic approach, focusing on incremental progress and expanding economic cooperation, seems the most realistic path forward.
Renewed diplomatic efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even if limited in scope, are crucial to broadening regional support for the Accords. Managing the relationship with Iran will also be paramount. A de-escalation of tensions and a return to a viable nuclear agreement could lessen the sense of urgency driving Arab-Israeli cooperation. Ultimately, the Accords represent a complex, evolving dynamic that requires sustained engagement and a willingness to navigate challenging political realities.
Sources:
* MEI (Middle East Institute). (2026). Kazakhstan’s Entry Signals a New Phase for the Abraham Accords. [https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf](https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf)
* Wikipedia. (n.d.). Abraham Accords. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords)
* Manara Magazine. (2026). The Post-War Middle East: A Region Reshaped. [https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/)
* Reuters. (2025, September 15). What are the Abraham Accords?. [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/)
* Atlas Institute. (n.d.). The Geopolitics of the Abraham Accords. [https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/)
* Times of Israel Blogs. (2026). Dawn of Unity: A Vision for a Free Iran and Israel. [https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/](https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/)