Abraham Accords:
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. While Sudan’s progress has stalled following the outbreak of conflict, the Accords have fostered burgeoning economic, security and cultural ties. However, the path to broader regional peace remains complex, facing ongoing challenges and geopolitical headwinds. This report assesses the current state of the Accords as of late 2026.
Progress Made
The Accords continue to yield tangible results, expanding beyond the initial signatories. Kazakhstan’s recent, albeit cautious, engagement signals a new phase, potentially opening doors for Central Asian nations to explore normalised ties with Israel (MEI, 2026). Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain has surged, exceeding $3.5 billion in 2025 and projected to rise further. Tourism has also experienced a substantial boost, with hundreds of thousands of Israelis visiting the UAE and Morocco.
Security cooperation, particularly in areas of intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism, has deepened, though details remain largely confidential. The reconfiguration of regional alliances, spurred by the Accords, is evident in evolving defence partnerships and joint military exercises (Manara Magazine, 2026). Furthermore, the Accords have facilitated increased diplomatic engagement on issues beyond normalisation, including climate change, water security, and public health. The framework has also encouraged discussions around technological collaboration, with joint ventures emerging in sectors like renewable energy and cybersecurity (Reuters, 2025).
Challenges
Despite the progress, significant challenges persist. The war in Gaza, beginning in October 2023, severely tested the Accords, prompting some Arab states to temporarily suspend relations with Israel. While ties have largely been restored, the conflict exposed the fragility of the normalisation process and highlighted the continued importance of the Palestinian issue. Sudan’s internal conflict has effectively halted its normalisation process, and the political situation remains deeply unstable.
Public opinion in many Arab countries remains sceptical of closer ties with Israel, particularly in the absence of a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This creates a domestic political constraint for leaders seeking to deepen normalisation. Moreover, concerns about the potential for increased Iranian influence and the weaponisation of normalisation – where concessions to Israel are perceived as detrimental to other regional interests – continue to fuel opposition. The Atlas Institute (2026) notes that the Accords have inadvertently created a more fragmented regional landscape, with competing blocs and shifting allegiances.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The evolving dynamics between Israel and Iran are inextricably linked to the future of the Abraham Accords. Iran views the Accords as a strategic threat, perceiving them as an attempt to isolate and contain its regional influence. Increased normalisation is seen as bolstering a US-led alliance against Iran, and Tehran has consistently condemned the Accords.
This has manifested in increased Iranian support for proxy groups in the region, and heightened cyberattacks targeting Israel and its partners. Conversely, the Accords have prompted Israel and its Arab partners to enhance their security cooperation, specifically focusing on countering Iranian activities. Some voices within the Iranian opposition, however, see the Accords as a potential catalyst for positive change, envisioning a future where a democratic Iran could also join the normalisation process (Times of Israel, 2026). This perspective suggests that a shift in Iran’s internal political landscape could dramatically alter the regional equation.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords hinges on several factors. A renewed focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with credible steps towards a two-state solution, is crucial to address the underlying grievances that fuel regional instability. Expanding the Accords to include Saudi Arabia remains a key objective, but requires navigating complex political considerations and addressing Saudi Arabia’s security concerns.
Continued economic integration and people-to-people exchanges will be vital to solidify the gains made thus far. Furthermore, a more inclusive approach, involving regional stakeholders beyond the initial signatories, is necessary to build a sustainable framework for peace and cooperation. The potential for Kazakhstan and other Central Asian nations to play a mediating role could be significant. Realistically, progress will likely be incremental, requiring sustained diplomatic efforts and a willingness to compromise from all parties involved.
Sources:
* MEI (Middle East Institute). (2026). Kazakhstan’s Entry Signals a New Phase for the Abraham Accords. [https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf](https://mei.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Abraham-Accords_Backgrounder_2025.pdf)
* Wikipedia. (2026). Abraham Accords. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords)
* Manara Magazine. (2026). The Post-War Middle East: A Region Reshaped. [https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://manaramagazine.org/2026/02/reconfiguration-of-the-abraham-accords/)
* Reuters. (2025, September 15). What are the Abraham Accords?. [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/what-are-abraham-accords-2025-09-15/)
* Atlas Institute. (2026). The Geopolitics of the Abraham Accords. [https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/](https://atlasinstitute.org/the-geopolitics-of-the-abraham-accords/)
* Times of Israel Blogs. (2026). Dawn of Unity: A Vision for a Free Iran and Israel. [https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/](https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/dawn-of-unity-a-vision-for-a-free-iran-and-israel/)