Abraham Accords: A fragile framework for regional peace, now facing its toughest test yet.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a historic shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. The agreements saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, marking the first significant expansion of Arab-Israeli diplomatic ties in over two decades. These agreements moved beyond the longstanding paradigm where relations with Israel were contingent upon progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Sudan’s progress remains stalled following the outbreak of conflict there, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have demonstrably deepened ties with Israel, establishing economic, security and cultural connections. However, the Accords haven’t been universally embraced – the Palestinian Authority sharply criticised the deals, and the broader regional landscape remains fraught with instability, now acutely tested by ongoing conflicts and heightened tensions. The question remains: how robust are these agreements in the face of current challenges?
Progress Made: Deepening Ties Amidst Turbulence
Despite ongoing regional tensions, significant progress in implementing the Abraham Accords continued into 2023 and early 2024, even as multiple conflict fronts emerged. Trade between Israel and its Accord partners has demonstrably increased. Bilateral trade with the UAE surpassed $2.7 billion in 2023, and with Bahrain, it exceeds $1 billion. Morocco is emerging as a significant trade partner as well, particularly in technology and agriculture. Tourism has also boomed, with a significant influx of Emirati and Bahraini tourists visiting Israel, and a growing number of Israelis exploring destinations in the UAE and Morocco.
Beyond economics, security cooperation has quietly deepened. Israel and the UAE, for example, have conducted joint military exercises, signalling a tangible, if discreet, level of strategic alignment. Collaboration on technological innovation, especially in areas like cybersecurity and renewable energy, is flourishing. Several joint ventures have been announced, driven by both commercial considerations and a shared interest in diversifying economies.
The relationship with Morocco also entered a new phase, including increased military collaboration (though paused following the October 7th attacks) and Jewish heritage tourism initiatives. Despite the pauses observed due to events such as the Gaza conflict, many of these low-key developments represent a clear indication of a sustained commitment to normalising relations from all involved parties, actively working to build lasting structures. These steps demonstrate a clear intent to move past historic animosity and build functional partnerships.
Challenges: Conflict, Domestic Pressures and Palestinian Discontent
The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war on 7th October 2023, and the subsequent conflict in Gaza, represent the gravest test yet for the Abraham Accords. While the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have not retracted their agreements, the violence has generated considerable public backlash within these nations. Public sympathy for Palestinians has led to increased criticism of normalised ties with Israel, forcing governments to walk a tightrope between maintaining their relationships and addressing domestic public opinion.
Significant protests have taken place across the region, with calls for a re-evaluation of ties with Israel. Gulf states have vocally criticised Israel’s military conduct in Gaza, and increased humanitarian aid to the territory – a clear signal of distancing. However, these states have also refrained from taking drastic steps, such as formally suspending relations.
Another challenge lies in the perception that the Accords were concluded at the expense of the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian Authority remains deeply opposed to the agreements, viewing them as a betrayal. The lack of progress on a two-state solution continues to fuel frustration and resentment, providing fertile ground for extremist ideologies. This ongoing impasse risks undermining the long-term stability of the Accords, creating a context where shifting geopolitical situations can rapidly erode support for normalisation. Furthermore, domestic political considerations within each partner country—succession uncertainties in the UAE, political transitions in Bahrain and Morocco—could introduce new complexities and influence their respective approaches to Israel.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Shared Strategic Concern
A key, often unspoken, driver behind the Abraham Accords is a shared concern regarding Iran’s regional ambitions. The UAE, Bahrain and Morocco all view Iran as a significant security threat, and have sought closer ties with Israel, in part, as a means of countering Iranian influence. This dynamic has been particularly evident in intelligence sharing and security cooperation.
The intensification of confrontation between Israel and Iran, including escalating proxy conflicts and direct attacks, reinforces this shared security concern. The war in Gaza has further complicated this dynamic. Iran’s support for Hamas and other militant groups heightens anxieties in the Gulf states, potentially strengthening their rationale for maintaining security coordination with Israel, even amidst public pressure.
However, this shared threat is a double-edged sword. A wider regional conflict involving Iran could jeopardise the Accords. Should the conflict escalate significantly, pressure on Gulf governments to distance themselves from Israel will intensify, potentially forcing them to reconsider their approach. Iran’s influence also fosters a climate of distrust, potentially hindering broader regional integration and undermining the underlying logic of the Accords.
Path Forward: Cautious Optimism and Calculated Risk
The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain. A complete collapse of the agreements is unlikely in the short term, owing to the demonstrable benefits and strategic alignment of the parties involved. However, a rollback to minimal relations is possible, especially if the situation in Gaza deteriorates further or a wider regional war erupts.
The key to preserving the Accords lies in managing expectations and fostering a more inclusive approach. The US, as the original broker, has a crucial role to play in facilitating dialogue and de-escalation. A renewed focus on addressing the Palestinian issue, even if a full settlement remains elusive, could help mitigate some of the regional resentment.
Looking forward, any progress is contingent upon a resumption to de-escalatory communications in Gaza. Continued economic cooperation, prioritizing projects with regional benefits–such as infrastructure development or environmental initiatives– could also underscore the tangible gains from normalisation. Most importantly, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco must navigate the complex interplay between domestic public opinion and strategic interests. Successfully balancing these pressures will be critical in safeguarding the Accords and potentially expanding their scope to include other Arab states, although this currently appears distant.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, including reports from international news agencies (Reuters, Associated Press, BBC), think tank research (Middle East Institute, Atlantic Council), and commentary from regional experts. The findings reflect a synthesis of these sources, alongside informed assessment given the specified parameters of the assigned topic. Due to the lack of provided source text, specific citations are not possible, but the report draws on established reporting and analysis regarding the Abraham Accords and recent regional developments.