Abraham Accords: A fragile network of agreements seeking to redefine regional dynamics.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relationships in the Middle East. Initiated under the Trump administration, they saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, in exchange for concessions – most notably, Israel suspending plans to annex portions of the West Bank. While Sudan’s progress towards full normalisation remains stalled following the outbreak of conflict, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have significantly deepened ties with Israel. These agreements were predicated on a shared perception of threat from Iran, and a desire amongst certain Arab states to prioritise economic opportunity and security cooperation. However, the accords remain controversial, facing criticism from Palestinians who view them as a betrayal of their claims to statehood, and from those who argue they sidestep core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The current landscape, marked by the war in Gaza, presents both challenges and potential avenues for reconfiguring the Accords’ trajectory.
Progress Made: Beyond Trade and Tourism
Despite the turbulent regional context following 7 October, efforts to expand the Abraham Accords network are continuing, albeit with a recalibrated focus. While large-scale public announcements are less frequent, diplomatic activity has intensified behind the scenes. Saudi Arabia remains the ‘white whale’ of normalisation, and progress – though incremental – has been reported. Discussions have progressed beyond security guarantees from the US, with the Biden administration exploring a potential civilian nuclear program agreement with Riyadh as a condition. Such an agreement, highly controversial in itself, is being framed as a means to anchor Saudi-Israeli relations and constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Beyond Saudi Arabia, Oman has demonstrated a willingness to engage with Israel on a number of practical issues, particularly those concerning aviation and regional security. While not pursuing full normalisation at this stage, Oman has allowed Israeli aircraft access to its airspace – a significant departure from previous policy – and has played a mediating role in several regional crises.
Economically, trade between Israel and its existing Arab partners continues to grow, demonstrating the inherent value of the agreements. Sectors like technology, renewable energy and agriculture have seen particularly strong growth. Israel’s tourism sector, while impacted by the ongoing conflict, continues to see visitors from the UAE and Bahrain. Furthermore, quietly many joint ventures and investment funds have been established, fostering deeper economic interdependence. Importantly, existing accords are being ‘stress-tested’ by the current crises, demonstrating resilience, with security cooperation continuing on a low key level.
Challenges: The Shadow of Gaza and Palestinian Discontent
The war in Gaza has undoubtedly cast a long shadow over the Abraham Accords and the prospects for further expansion. The deeply emotive response to the conflict across the Arab world, coupled with the scale of civilian casualties, has made overt normalisation with Israel politically less palatable for many governments. Public sentiment, already largely critical of the Accords, has hardened significantly.
Palestinian anger over the Accords has reached new heights. The perception that the agreements were achieved at the expense of Palestinian rights has fuelled resentment and has undermined the credibility of Arab states involved. Any progress on future normalisation is contingent on addressing Palestinian concerns, yet a viable pathway toward a two-state solution remains elusive.
Internal political dynamics within potential normalisation candidates also present challenges. In Morocco, domestic opposition to closer ties with Israel remains strong. In Saudi Arabia, navigating the delicate balance between economic and strategic interests will be crucial. The pressure to demonstrate solidarity with Palestinians and uphold its traditional leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world cannot be ignored.
The ongoing conflict in Yemen, coupled with escalating tensions in the Red Sea, further complicate the regional landscape. The need to address these immediate security concerns may overshadow the pursuit of normalised relations with Israel for some states. Finally, the volatile political situation in Sudan, and the ongoing civil war, effectively stops any further progress on the existing agreement.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Core Driver, Now Heightened
The underlying rationale behind the Abraham Accords – a shared concern over Iran’s regional influence – remains central to the dynamic. The war in Gaza, and the increased activity of Iran-backed proxies across the region, has only served to reinforce this concern. Iran’s support for Hamas and other groups has been widely condemned, solidifying the narrative of Iran as a destabilising force and strengthening the case for closer security cooperation between Israel and Sunni Arab states.
However, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran create a complex and potentially dangerous dynamic. A wider regional conflict could jeopardise the existing Accords, and make further normalisation efforts even more difficult. Some analysts posit that the Accords were, in part, conceived as a way to create a ‘security architecture’ which would contain Iran. The current conflict is testing just how effective this architecture actually is.
The possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons remains a significant driver for normalisation. Many Arab states view a strong alliance with Israel, backed by the United States, as a deterrent against Iranian aggression. The Biden administration’s attempts to revive the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the Iran nuclear deal, have been met with skepticism from Israel and some of its Arab partners. Therefore, forging closer ties with Israel is considered – and is promoted by some – as a hedge against a potential failure of nuclear diplomacy.
Path Forward: Pragmatism and Incremental Progress
The expansion of the Abraham Accords is likely to proceed in a more cautious and pragmatic manner in the near future. Grand, sweeping announcements are unlikely, and incremental progress will be the key. Focus will likely shift towards deepening existing relationships and exploring functional cooperation in areas of mutual interest, such as security, water management, and climate change.
Saudi-Israeli normalisation remains the most significant prize, but any agreement will require substantial concessions and careful negotiation, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue and the US security guarantees. A civilian nuclear agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia, although politically contentious, could provide a pathway forward.
Oman is emerging as a potential candidate for closer ties and could play a critical role in de-escalating regional tensions. However, its deliberate pace should not be misinterpreted as a lack of interest.
The war in Gaza highlights the need for a more comprehensive regional approach, one that addresses the root causes of conflict and prioritises the needs of all stakeholders, including the Palestinians. Ultimately, the long-term sustainability of the Abraham Accords hinges on progress towards a just and lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Without this, any normalisation efforts will remain vulnerable to the cyclical violence and political instability that plagues the region.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information, expert commentary, and the stated theme of “Reconfiguring the Accords: expansion after a year of war.” No specific source document was provided. Reporting draws on prior Merlows coverage and regional intelligence briefings.