Abraham Accords: A framework for diplomatic recognition between Israel and several Arab nations, begun in 2020, now facing headwinds.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant, though still evolving, shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Initiated with normalisation agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, the Accords were subsequently joined by Morocco and Sudan. These agreements saw the establishment of diplomatic relations, the exchange of ambassadors, and cooperation across a range of sectors including trade, tourism, and security. The overarching goal, promoted heavily by the Trump administration, was to forge a more stable and integrated region, countering Iranian influence. However, the Accords have always been a complex undertaking, prompting criticism from Palestinian factions who feel abandoned, and raising questions regarding the long-term sustainability of these newfound relationships in light of persistent regional conflicts and diverging interests. Today, the momentum seen in 2020 has demonstrably slowed, with the key prize of Saudi normalisation proving increasingly elusive.
Progress Made
Despite the cooling sentiment in Saudi Arabia, the existing Abraham Accords relationships continue to develop, albeit at varying paces. Bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE reached a record $2.7 billion in 2022, and continues to grow, focusing on sectors like technology, renewable energy, and food security. Bahrain has seen increased Israeli tourism – though numbers are smaller than the UAE – and security cooperation has deepened, particularly concerning shared concerns about Iranian maritime threats. Morocco and Israel have also focused on security ties, including defence cooperation, and a surge in direct flights helped boost tourism.
Sudan’s case remains more complicated; the ongoing conflict there has effectively stalled any further steps towards full normalisation. However, even with internal turmoil, previous agreements relating to agricultural cooperation and other civilian projects remain on the table for future development once stability returns. Importantly, the bureaucratic infrastructure for diplomatic relations – embassies, consular offices – established by the Accords remain operational across the board. High-level meetings, though less frequent than in 2021/22, continue to take place quietly, indicating a sustained, if cautious, commitment from all parties involved. Furthermore, the agreements have facilitated limited, but significant, Israeli participation in regional forums and initiatives, broadening its diplomatic footprint.
Challenges
The primary obstacle stemming from Riyadh is a significant shift in Saudi public opinion which, according to sources, has turned increasingly critical of even discussing normalisation with Israel. This shift is rooted in several factors. The continued absence of substantial progress on the Palestinian issue – a key demand from the Saudi public and leadership – is paramount. Saudi Arabia historically positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinian cause, and a significant domestic constituency views normalisation as a betrayal of that commitment.
Furthermore, the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly the ongoing violence in the West Bank and Gaza, has fuelled anti-Israel sentiment. The policies of the current Israeli government, perceived as hardline and uncompromising, have exacerbated these concerns. Reports suggest that any public discussion of a deal with Israel is now politically toxic for the Saudi leadership.
Broader regional dynamics also play a role. Iran’s growing regional influence and its close ties with Hamas and other Palestinian groups are contributing to Saudi anxieties. There’s a feeling that pursuing normalisation with Israel while Iran remains a potent force could further destabilise the region. Internally, economic concerns and the need to address domestic issues are also diverting the Saudi leadership’s attention away from pursuing a high-profile diplomatic initiative like normalisation. The price tag associated with securing a defence pact from the US – reportedly a key Saudi condition for normalisation – is also proving a sticking point, with Washington hesitant to make commitments that might constrain its foreign policy options..
Israel-Iran Dimension
The prospect of Saudi normalisation is intrinsically linked to the broader strategic rivalry between Israel and Iran, a central focus for Merlows. Saudi Arabia views Iran as a primary threat to its regional security, and a potential alliance with Israel, bolstered by a robust US defence commitment, is seen as a way to counter Iranian influence. Israel, for its part, believes that Saudi normalisation would represent a watershed moment in its regional integration and bolster its strategic position vis-à-vis Iran.
However, the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran – including covert operations and cyber warfare – is arguably complicating the path to normalisation. It reinforces the Saudi perception of the region as inherently unstable and raises questions about the wisdom of further aligning with Israel in the current environment. Some analysts suggest that Iran is actively working to undermine normalisation efforts, leveraging its influence with Palestinian groups and exploiting the sensitivities surrounding the Palestinian issue. The possibility of a military confrontation between Israel and Iran, however remote, casts a long shadow over the entire normalisation process, introducing a significant degree of uncertainty and risk.
Path Forward
Realistically, a comprehensive Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement in the immediate future appears unlikely. Overcoming the current headwinds requires a significant shift in regional dynamics and a demonstrable commitment from all parties to address the underlying concerns. A crucial step would be renewed focus on de-escalation of tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, with concrete steps towards a two-state solution. Even incremental progress on this front could help to alleviate Saudi public opinion and create a more conducive environment for negotiations.
The United States will need to play a more active role as a mediator, offering credible security guarantees to Saudi Arabia and leveraging its influence with Israel to encourage concessions on the Palestinian issue. Restraint regarding Iran is also vital; provocative actions that further escalate regional tensions will only serve to undermine normalisation efforts.
The focus may shift to exploring incremental steps, such as expanded economic and cultural ties, before attempting a formal normalisation agreement. This phased approach could build trust and create a positive momentum, laying the groundwork for a future breakthrough. However, it is crucial to recognise that the Abraham Accords are not a linear process, and setbacks are inevitable. The future of normalisation in the Middle East hinges on a delicate balance of competing interests and a sustained commitment to diplomacy.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information and informed assessments of regional developments, informed by the title “Headwinds in Riyadh: Saudi public mood sours on normalisation.” Specific source materials were not provided.