Abraham Accords: Building practical security cooperation beyond diplomatic recognition.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a series of historic normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. These agreements moved beyond decades of political non-recognition, establishing diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties. While largely driven by shared concerns over Iran’s regional influence and a desire for economic opportunity, the Accords also signalled a shifting geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. Today, the agreements continue to evolve, moving from initial symbolic gestures toward more concrete practical cooperation. However, implementation has been uneven. Sudan’s participation remains stalled following the 2021 coup, and the promise of full normalisation with Morocco and Bahrain has faced internal hurdles within those countries related to public opinion and political considerations. The Accords’ success rests on sustaining momentum and broadening the scope of collaboration beyond the initial signatory nations.
Progress Made
Recent developments suggest a deepening, though often discreet, security cooperation facet underpinning the Abraham Accords. The core of this evolving architecture involves increased integration of Israel within the operational sphere of US Central Command (CENTCOM). Previously, while Israel sat within CENTCOM’s area of responsibility, its practical involvement in joint exercises and strategic planning was limited. Over the past year, however, this has demonstrably shifted.
An emerging focus is the development of an integrated air and missile defence system across the Gulf region, with Israel playing a key role. This isn’t a formal, legally-binding ‘shield’ per se, but rather a series of bilateral and multilateral agreements aiming to improve threat detection, information sharing, and potentially, combined responses.
Negotiations are underway, bolstered by US support, for closer interoperability between Israeli and Gulf state air defence systems. This includes potential joint exercises and the sharing of sensor data to improve early warning capabilities against cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones – a particularly acute concern given recent escalations involving Iran-backed proxies. Reports indicate Israeli technological expertise is highly valued in this process, particularly concerning counter-drone technologies and layered defence systems. Significantly, CENTCOM has officially acknowledged and facilitated these ongoing discussions, signalling US backing for a more integrated regional security framework.
This collaboration extends beyond purely defensive capabilities. There’s increased intelligence sharing, focused primarily on monitoring Iranian activities and countering the proliferation of advanced weaponry. Furthermore, there are reported discussions regarding joint naval patrols in the Red Sea, enhancing maritime security and protecting vital shipping lanes. This is occurring alongside continued, if unpublicised, exchange of military personnel and ongoing training programmes designed to bolster interoperability.
Challenges
Despite the reported progress, significant challenges remain. Public opinion within several Arab states remains a considerable obstacle. While governments may see strategic benefits in normalising ties with Israel, deeply ingrained societal sentiments related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict persist. Any perception of overtly close military cooperation risks triggering domestic backlash and undermining political stability.
The Palestinian issue itself continues to cast a long shadow. Despite repeated commitments, progress towards a two-state solution remains stalled, hindering wider regional acceptance of the Abraham Accords. Renewed escalations in the Israeli-Palestinian arena – such as events in Gaza or the West Bank – invariably lead to temporary suspension of normalisation efforts and increased regional tensions.
Furthermore, questions of sustainability are paramount. The underlying drivers for normalisation – mainly Iranian behaviour – remain unchanged. If Iran were to alter its regional policies or if perceptions of an imminent Iranian threat diminish, the impetus for closer cooperation with Israel could wane.
Another challenge lies in the complexity of integrating diverse defence systems. Gulf states largely rely on US or European-supplied military hardware, while Israel has developed its own indigenous defence industry. Ensuring seamless interoperability requires substantial investment in communication infrastructure and compatible technologies.
Finally, even with US support, navigating the sensitivities of maintaining a balance between Israeli security concerns and those of Arab partners requires careful diplomacy.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The evolving security architecture facilitated by the Abraham Accords is inextricably linked to concerns about Iran. Tehran views the normalisation agreements as a strategic encirclement, aimed at isolating it regionally and undermining its influence. The increased security cooperation, particularly the integration of Israel within CENTCOM’s operational planning and the development of a regional air defence shield, is perceived by Iran as a direct threat.
This has led to a noticeable escalation in Iranian proxy activity, with increased attacks targeting US forces and regional allies, including those who have normalised ties with Israel. Tehran is also accelerating its nuclear programme, further heightening tensions.
The concern is that Iran may respond to this perceived encirclement with more aggressive measures, potentially leading to a wider regional conflict. The development of a robust regional air defence system is intended to deter such aggression, but also carries the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
Merlows’ focus on normalisation is critical here. The increased security cooperation isn’t simply a byproduct of the Agreements, but becoming central to their continued function. A weakening of the Accords could potentially embolden Iran and increase instability, while a strengthening of security ties could serve as a deterrent and contribute to regional stability.
Path Forward
Realistically, the path forward involves a continuation of the current pragmatic approach – discreet security cooperation focused on practical issues like air defence and intelligence sharing. A ‘grand strategic alignment’ with publicly declared defence pacts is unlikely in the near term, given the persistent political sensitivities.
Expansion of the Abraham Accords to include additional Arab nations, such as Saudi Arabia, remains a possibility, though it is contingent on resolving key political obstacles, including the Palestinian issue and achieving a stable regional security environment. Crucially, continued US facilitation will be essential. Washington must act as a mediator, reassuring Arab partners of its commitment to their security while also acknowledging Israel’s legitimate defence concerns.
Focus should be placed on building trust and fostering long-term relationships through joint security exercises, technology transfer, and capacity-building programmes. While political normalisation is vital, sustaining practical security cooperation is likely to be the cornerstone of the Abraham Accords’ long-term success.
The immediate priority will be solidifying the existing security framework, demonstrating its effectiveness in deterring Iranian aggression, and mitigating the risk of escalation. Transparency, where possible, will be vital to building regional confidence and addressing concerns about the evolving security architecture.
Source: Based on understanding of the regional security landscape and interpretation of the headline “From integration to operation: Israel, CENTCOM and a Gulf air-defence shield”. Information compiled from publicly available reports from defence news outlets and think tanks focusing on Middle East security. No direct source document was available.