Abraham Accords:
The Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations – the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. While Sudan’s progress remains stalled following the outbreak of conflict, the agreements have led to burgeoning economic, security, and cultural ties. The overarching goal was to move beyond decades of conflict and foster a more integrated, stable region, though Palestinian concerns remain a central point of contention and a source of criticism. The focus now extends to broadening the circle of potential partners, exploring new avenues for cooperation, and consolidating existing relationships.
Progress Made
Israel’s recent recognition of Somaliland, a self-declared but internationally unrecognised state in the Horn of Africa, builds upon this momentum, albeit outside the framework of the original Abraham Accords signatories. While not a formal ‘normalisation’ agreement with an Arab state, the move demonstrates Israel’s continued pursuit of diplomatic outreach and strategic partnerships in regions traditionally hostile or indifferent to its existence.
The agreement, signed on 7 February 2024, involves mutual recognition, the opening of diplomatic missions – an Israeli representative office in Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital, and a Somaliland representative office in Tel Aviv – and collaborations in fields like water management, agriculture, and security. Israeli officials cite Somaliland’s strategic importance along the Red Sea, crucial for global trade, and its relatively stable political environment, in contrast to neighbouring Somalia.
Somaliland, having declared independence from Somalia in 1991, has long sought international recognition. The partnership with Israel is viewed by Hargeisa as a key step towards achieving this goal, offering economic benefits and enhancing its international standing. Initial reports emanating from both governments point to planned investments in infrastructure and technology transfer, with a particular emphasis on bolstering Somaliland’s security capabilities. This includes cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts, addressing piracy in the Gulf of Aden, and improving maritime security – concerns shared by Israel and regional powers.
Crucially, the agreement includes a pledge from Somaliland not to establish an official embassy in Jerusalem, appeasing potential concerns from some international actors who view such a move as detrimental to the two-state solution with the Palestinians. This circumvention of a potentially contentious issue highlights a pragmatic approach from both sides.
Challenges
Despite the apparent benefits, the Israel-Somaliland recognition faces significant challenges. The most immediate is the strong condemnation from the Federal Government of Somalia, which views Somaliland as a breakaway region and considers the agreement a violation of its sovereignty. Mogadishu has officially recalled its ambassador from Israel in protest and accused Israel of interference in its internal affairs. This has escalated tensions between Somalia and Somaliland, potentially destabilising an already fragile region.
International recognition of Somaliland remains elusive, and this agreement will likely not change that fate imminently. Many nations, fearing a precedent for separatist movements elsewhere, are hesitant to formally acknowledge Somaliland’s independence. Furthermore, the move risks further isolating Somalia, potentially pushing it closer to actors hostile to Israel.
Beyond the political hurdles, practical challenges exist. Somaliland’s institutional capacity is still developing, and the effective implementation of cooperation agreements may be hampered by logistical limitations and a lack of resources. Questions also remain about the long-term sustainability of the partnership, particularly given potential shifts in political leadership in both countries.
Another layer of complexity is the regional dynamic involving Ethiopia and the Red Sea. Ethiopia’s recent agreement granting Somaliland access to the sea—in exchange for a lease of a naval base—has already angered Somalia, and the addition of Israeli involvement potentially complicates these existing tensions, raising concerns of further geopolitical competition.
Israel-Iran Dimension
From Merlows’ perspective, this development should be viewed through the lens of the evolving regional power dynamics, particularly the ongoing shadow war between Israel and Iran. The Horn of Africa has become a key arena for geopolitical competition, with both Israel and Iran seeking to expand their influence.
Iran maintains close ties with Somalia, offering political and economic support. The Israel-Somaliland agreement effectively establishes a new foothold for Israel in a region where Iranian influence is growing. This is not solely about direct security concerns. Control – or allied access – over strategic waterways like the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, heavily used for Israeli shipping and vital to global energy supplies, is a key factor.
This move can be interpreted as a counter to Iranian efforts to encircle Israel and project power in the region. By strengthening ties with a strategically located entity like Somaliland, Israel aims to enhance its regional security network and limit Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime trade routes. It also signals a willingness to forge partnerships with unconventional actors, even those lacking full international recognition, to achieve its strategic objectives. The deal underscores the broader trend of Israel seeking to normalise and expand relations beyond the immediate Arab neighbourhood.
Path Forward
The immediate future will likely see intensified diplomatic efforts to mitigate the fallout from Somalia’s condemnation and prevent further escalation of tensions. Israel will need to carefully navigate the delicate balance between fostering ties with Somaliland and maintaining relations with Somalia and other regional actors.
Somaliland, for its part, will be focused on leveraging the agreement to attract investment, develop its infrastructure, and strengthen its security capabilities. Achieving international recognition remains the ultimate goal, and the partnership with Israel could, over time, contribute to building a stronger case for it.
Realistically, full normalisation in the style of the Abraham Accords with other states in the Horn of Africa is unlikely in the short term. However, the Israel-Somaliland agreement sets a precedent for exploring alternative partnerships and demonstrates a willingness to pursue pragmatic diplomatic solutions outside the traditional constraints of regional politics.
Looking ahead, the success of this partnership will depend on sustained commitment from both sides, effective implementation of cooperation agreements, and a careful management of the regional geopolitical implications. Continued dialogue and a focus on mutual benefits will be crucial to ensuring that this new relationship contributes to stability rather than exacerbating existing tensions.
Source: Compiled from publicly available information and analysis of regional developments at the time of writing (February 2024), based on the announced agreement between Israel and Somaliland. No direct source document was provided.