Abraham Accords: A snapshot of progress, obstacles, and regional realignment following the 2020 agreements.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Agreements were initially reached between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, formalising diplomatic relations and opening avenues for cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. While Sudan’s involvement has stalled following the 2021 coup, and Morocco’s relationship has experienced fluctuations, the UAE and Bahrain have maintained consistent, if evolving, engagement with Israel. The Accords aimed to reshape the regional security architecture, predicated on a shared concern over Iranian influence and a desire for economic advancement. Today, the initial momentum has demonstrably slowed, yet the established diplomatic frameworks remain in place, albeit facing new challenges and recalibrations. The recent Dubai Airshow provides a symbolic snapshot of this changing dynamic.
Progress Made
The initial years following the Accords witnessed a surge in bilateral trade between Israel and the UAE, exceeding $2.5 billion in 2022. This included significant collaborations in renewable energy, water technology, and agricultural innovation. Tourism flourished, with hundreds of thousands of Israelis visiting the UAE, especially Dubai, and reciprocal travel increasing, though remaining lower. Security cooperation – particularly intelligence sharing – grew substantially, focused primarily on countering shared threats, notably Iran.
Defence collaboration, however, was projected to be perhaps the most lucrative dimension. Israeli defence firms quickly established a presence in the UAE, showcasing advanced technologies at military exhibitions and attempting to finalise contracts. Following the normalisation agreement, the UAE sought to diversify its arms procurement, moving beyond traditional suppliers like the US and France. Several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) were signed, hinting at potential deals for Israeli-made air defence systems, loitering munitions, and signal intelligence capabilities.
The Dubai Airshow, traditionally a key event for these firms, proved telling. While Israeli companies were present – including Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries – their presence was noticeably less prominent than anticipated. Prior to the show, reports indicated prospective arms deals were under review, and certain collaborations had been quietly paused, although no official cancellations were publicly announced. Despite this, existing joint ventures continue to operate, highlighting that cooperation hasn’t entirely ceased, merely recalibrated.
Challenges
The cooling in defence cooperation, reflected at the Dubai Airshow, stems from a confluence of factors. Firstly, the regional geopolitical landscape has shifted. The ongoing war in Ukraine has led to a reassessment of priorities across the region, including a renewed focus on relations with Russia, a key player in the Syrian conflict and a significant arms supplier. The UAE has sought to maintain its neutrality in the Ukraine war, balancing relationships with both the West and Russia, and has expressed concerns regarding the potential for Western pressure on defence deals.
Secondly, the UAE has expressed frustrations over the lack of reciprocal concessions to the Palestinians from Israel. The initial premise for normalisation for some, including the UAE, involved a suspended Israeli plan to annex parts of the West Bank. The stagnation of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and continued settlement expansion have fuelled criticism and constrained the extent of further normalisation.
Thirdly, internal economic pressures within the UAE, alongside a broader global economic slowdown, have led to austerity measures and a tightening of defence spending. Large-scale arms procurement, even with strategic benefits, is coming under increased scrutiny. Finally, concerns regarding technology transfer and data security, alongside US sensitivities surrounding the sale of certain advanced systems to the UAE, add further layers of complexity.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords were, in part, a response to the perceived threat posed by Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear programme. The UAE and Israel share anxieties regarding Iran’s support for proxy groups and its destabilising influence in the region. Enhanced intelligence and security cooperation under the Accords were aimed at bolstering their collective defence capabilities against Iran.
However, the recent warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered by China, has fundamentally altered the regional dynamic. This has reduced tensions between two key rivals, diminishing the sense of urgency regarding a unified front against Iran. The UAE, eager to de-escalate regional conflicts and pursue economic opportunities, has actively engaged with Iran, aiming to re-establish diplomatic ties and deepen trade links.
This shift has created a tension. While the UAE still values its security partnership with Israel, it’s now prioritising broader regional stability and economic diversification. This pragmatic approach means it’s unwilling to jeopardise its improving relationship with Tehran by pursuing deeper, and potentially provocative, security collaborations with Israel, particularly those which could be seen as directly targeting Iran. Essentially, the UAE is attempting to hedge its bets, maintaining relations with both sides.
Path Forward
The initial, euphoric phase of the Abraham Accords appears to be over. However, this doesn’t necessarily signal their failure. A more realistic and sustainable trajectory involves a recalibration of expectations and a focus on areas of enduring common interest. Trade and tourism, less politically sensitive than defence cooperation, are likely to remain significant.
Further progress will depend on the evolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Concrete steps towards a two-state solution, or at least a credible effort to restart negotiations, could generate positive momentum and alleviate some of the criticisms levelled at the UAE.
Continued, albeit lower profile, security cooperation, particularly intelligence sharing, is almost certain to persist. However, large-scale arms deals, especially involving cutting-edge technology, will likely be subjected to increased scrutiny and may be limited in scope. The regional realignment, driven by the Saudi-Iran détente, will also play a crucial role, requiring the UAE to navigate a complex web of relationships and balancing its security concerns with its economic and diplomatic priorities.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords, regional geopolitical developments, and observations surrounding the Dubai Airshow 2023. It draws upon reporting from various news sources, think tank analyses, and expert commentary on Middle Eastern affairs. Direct source material regarding the Dubai Airshow specifically was compiled from press reports around the event, noting low profile attendance and muted announcements from Israeli defence firms.