Abraham Accords: Two years on, the agreements continue to reshape regional security dynamics, but challenges to wider normalisation remain.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, saw Israel establish diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. These were the first such agreements with Arab nations in over two decades, marking a significant shift in the long-standing Arab-Israeli conflict. While Sudan’s participation has stalled due to internal political upheaval, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have all taken substantial steps toward normalisation, encompassing economic, cultural, and security cooperation. The accords were driven by shared concerns over Iran’s regional influence and a desire for economic opportunities, and represented a departure from the traditional Arab position of conditioning relations with Israel on progress towards a Palestinian state. However, the accords remain controversial, facing criticism from Palestinians and some regional actors who view them as undermining the pursuit of a two-state solution.
Progress Made: Deepening Security and Tech Cooperation
Recent developments demonstrate a deepening of security and technological cooperation between Israel and the UAE, evidenced by the UAE’s state-owned defence conglomerate, EDGE Group, acquiring a stake in Israeli artificial intelligence (AI) drone firm, Spektral Imaging. This investment signifies a move beyond symbolic diplomatic exchanges towards concrete, commercially-driven partnerships in a sensitive sector. It represents a substantial financial commitment and offers Spektral Imaging an opportunity to accelerate the development and deployment of its cutting-edge visual AI technology, designed for enhanced situational awareness and threat detection.
This isn’t an isolated incident. Throughout 2023 and 2024, multiple joint ventures and memoranda of understanding have been signed focusing on cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and joint military exercises. Israeli defence firms have secured contracts with Emirati counterparts for air defence systems, missile technology, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Similarly, Bahrain has increased security cooperation with Israel, primarily focused on maritime security and countering Iranian threats in the Gulf.
Beyond defence, economic ties are expanding. Trade between Israel and the UAE recently surpassed $2.5 billion, with significant growth in sectors like tourism, agriculture, and renewable energy. Morocco and Israel have also signed agreements covering areas such as investment promotion, banking and finance, and water management. Cultural exchanges – albeit less widely reported – are also ongoing, fostering people-to-people links and challenging long-held perceptions. These exchanges include academic collaborations, artistic performances, and increased tourism in both directions.
Challenges: Palestinian Issue and Regional Skepticism
Despite the positive momentum, significant challenges hamper wider regional normalisation. The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a primary obstacle. The absence of a credible political process towards a two-state solution fuels resentment among Palestinians and continues to be a sticking point for many Arab populations, limiting the potential for broader acceptance of normalisation. The recent escalation of violence in Gaza and the West Bank has exacerbated these tensions, with criticism directed towards Arab states for prioritising relations with Israel over Palestinian rights.
Furthermore, regional skepticism persists. While the UAE and Bahrain have embraced normalisation publicly, other nations – notably Saudi Arabia – have maintained a cautious approach, linking potential normalisation with substantial concessions to the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia’s demand for a clear path to statehood for Palestinians, along with security guarantees, represents a significant hurdle.
Internal political dynamics within the participating countries also pose challenges. Concerns about public opinion, particularly in Morocco where there is a strong pro-Palestinian sentiment, necessitate a careful balancing act by governments. There are also operational challenges in integrating security systems and sharing sensitive intelligence, requiring continuous negotiation and trust-building. The potential for political shifts within these countries could also lead to a re-evaluation of their stances toward Israel, introducing an element of uncertainty.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Key Driver and Escalating Risk
The shared perception of Iran as a strategic threat has been a crucial catalyst for the Abraham Accords and the deepening security cooperation exemplified by the EDGE-Spektral Imaging deal. Both Israel and the Gulf states view Iran’s nuclear program, regional proxies, and ballistic missile development as destabilising factors. Strengthened intelligence sharing and potential joint defence projects are explicitly aimed at countering these perceived threats.
However, this dimension also adds a layer of complexity and escalatory risk. Iran perceives the normalisation agreements as a strategic encirclement and has consistently condemned them. The Iranian regime has increased its rhetoric against Israel and its regional allies, and there have been reports of increased Iranian support for proxy groups targeting regional infrastructure, including within the UAE and Bahrain.
The recent direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in April 2024, following the Iranian attack, highlighted the fragility of the regional security landscape. It underscored that the deepening ties between Israel and its Arab partners may not fully deter Iranian assertiveness and could even escalate tensions further. This event arguably reinforces the perceived need for closer security collaboration amongst the Accord participants, but equally, raises the stakes and the potential for miscalculation.
Path Forward: Incrementalism and Contingency Planning
The path towards wider normalisation appears to be one of incrementalism. Full normalisation with Saudi Arabia remains the “holy grail” for proponents of the Accords, but its realization hinges on overcoming significant political obstacles, primarily addressing Palestinian concerns. A potential US-brokered framework that includes security guarantees for Saudi Arabia, a revived peace process, and limitations on Iran’s nuclear program could create the conditions for a breakthrough.
In the short term, we can expect to see a continuation of the current trend: deepening security and technology cooperation between existing partners, focusing on areas such as counter-drone technology, maritime security, and cybersecurity. More joint exercises and defence industry collaboration are also likely.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge the possibility of setbacks. An escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a change in leadership in any of the participating countries, or a more aggressive posture from Iran could derail progress. Therefore, alongside efforts to expand normalisation, contingency planning and de-escalation mechanisms are essential to mitigate risks and maintain regional stability. The focus will likely remain on building practical, behind-the-scenes collaboration, rather than seeking dramatic public gestures.
Source: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords, regional security dynamics, and defence industry developments, specifically informed by the announcement of EDGE Group’s investment in Spektral Imaging and related reporting in defence and geopolitics publications. Reporting was conducted between May 10 – May 17, 2024.