Abraham Accords: A fragile network of agreements facing new tests as regional dynamics evolve.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. The agreements – initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later expanded to include Morocco and Sudan – normalised diplomatic relations, fostering cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. These pacts were largely driven by shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence and its advancing nuclear programme, alongside a reassessment of strategic priorities by the Arab signatories. While presenting an alternative path towards stability, the Accords were never universally welcomed, facing criticism from Palestinian factions and some regional observers. Today, the framework remains in place, but the momentum has slowed, complicated by domestic political shifts within signatory states and, critically, escalating tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Progress Made
The period following the Abraham Accords witnessed a surge in bilateral agreements across various sectors. Trade between Israel and the UAE, for instance, rapidly exceeded expectations, reaching over $2.5 billion in 2022, and continuing to grow despite headwinds. Tourism also blossomed, with significant numbers of Emirati and Bahraini citizens visiting Israel. Morocco and Israel have deepened security cooperation, including intelligence sharing and joint military exercises, mirroring similar but more discreet ties with the UAE. Sudan, though grappling with internal conflict, initially signalled a commitment to the Accords, despite later backtracking on some aspects of implementation.
Beyond purely bilateral engagement, there has been some attempt at broader regional cooperation. Initiatives like the Negev Forum, a series of meetings involving foreign ministers from Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the United States, aimed to build a platform for collaborative projects focusing on food security, water resources, and regional security. Israel has also significantly increased its diplomatic footprint in the Gulf, opening embassies and consulates, solidifying its presence. This visible normalisation has, in several instances, de-escalated potential flashpoints and opened new channels for dialogue, even if indirectly. Furthermore, the security dimension has seen increased joint military drills and intelligence collaboration primarily focused on countering shared threats, including Iranian-backed groups.
However, progress has not been uniformly consistent. Sudan’s ongoing civil war has effectively stalled any further implementation of its agreements. Morocco, while maintaining diplomatic ties, has expressed reservations about the broader political context and the lack of progress on the Palestinian issue.
Challenges
Despite initial enthusiasm, the Abraham Accords now face a series of substantial challenges. Firstly, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a major impediment. The lack of a viable peace process and the continued expansion of Israeli settlements fuel resentment amongst Palestinians and limit the ability of Arab states to fully embrace normalisation without appearing to abandon the Palestinian cause. The recent escalation of violence in Gaza and the West Bank has further exacerbated these tensions.
Secondly, domestic political constraints within the signatory states are becoming more prominent. In Israel, shifting political landscapes and the rise of more hardline governments have raised concerns among some Arab partners about the future trajectory of the relationship. Similarly, economic and political challenges within the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco are diverting attention and resources from the normalisation process.
Crucially, the re-emergence of the Iranian nuclear issue is adding a new layer of complexity. The failure of negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the 2015 nuclear deal – has led to Iran accelerating its nuclear programme, raising fears of proliferation and regional instability. This shift has prompted a reassessment of security strategies across the region, and some Arab states are quietly exploring alternative security arrangements, even cautiously re-engaging with Iran diplomatically as a hedging strategy.
Finally, public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely opposed to normalisation with Israel, presenting a further constraint on deeper and more comprehensive engagement.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The escalating tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme are the most significant external factor impacting the Abraham Accords. The source material’s focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions highlights a core driver of the initial push for normalisation. For Israel, a nuclear-capable Iran represents an existential threat, and the Accords were seen as a means of building a regional security architecture to counter this perceived threat. The collapse of the JCPOA has therefore heightened Israeli anxieties and led to more assertive, and at times, covert actions targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities.
This, in turn, has provoked retaliatory responses from Iran and its proxies, increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict. Arab states that normalised relations with Israel, while sharing concerns about Iran, are wary of being drawn into a direct confrontation. They are increasingly seeking to balance their security partnerships with Israel with a pragmatic approach towards Iran, prioritizing de-escalation and dialogue. This balancing act is particularly evident in the UAE and Oman, both of which have undertaken diplomatic initiatives towards Tehran in recent months.
The dynamic illustrates a central tension within the framework of the Accords: they were partly predicated on a shared threat perception of Iran, but the pursuit of a unified security response is proving challenging given diverging national interests and risk tolerances. The strengthening of the Israel-Iran adversarial relationship essentially puts further pressure on the Accords’ foundations.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords is uncertain, but not necessarily doomed. The current environment demands a more nuanced and pragmatic approach. The immediate priority should be de-escalation of tensions, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear programme. Renewed diplomatic efforts to revive a modified JCPOA, or at least establish clear guardrails for Iran’s nuclear activities, are essential. Simultaneously, strengthening regional dialogue mechanisms – building upon initiatives like the Negev Forum – is crucial to address shared challenges and foster confidence-building measures.
However, expecting a rapid expansion of the Accords is unrealistic. Progress will likely be incremental, focusing on consolidating existing relationships and exploring limited areas of cooperation. Addressing the Palestinian issue, even through modest confidence-building steps, remains vital to alleviate regional tensions and broaden support for normalisation.
A key element will be demonstrating tangible economic benefits for all parties involved. Investing in joint infrastructure projects, promoting trade and tourism, and fostering technological collaboration can create a positive feedback loop, reinforcing the incentives for continued engagement. Finally, a more realistic assessment of the limits of regional security cooperation is necessary, acknowledging that a unified front against Iran is unlikely in the near future.
Source: Generated based on the prompt title: “Iran’s nuclear programme and the security calculus”. The report reflects analysis of regional dynamics and trends based on commonly available information regarding the Abraham Accords and the Iranian nuclear programme, and is compiled in the absence of a provided source document.
