Abraham Accords: A Framework for Normalisation, but Not Comprehensive Peace.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the US in 2020, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. They saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, a departure from decades of Arab consensus opposing engagement with Israel without resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Unlike past peace treaties – notably with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) – the Accords didn’t address core issues like Palestinian statehood. Instead, they focused on pragmatic benefits: trade, tourism, security cooperation, and shared regional concerns, particularly Iran. While lauded by supporters as a catalyst for regional stability and economic prosperity, critics view them as sidelining the Palestinian issue and potentially exacerbating existing tensions. Two years on, the Accords remain a dynamic, and often contested, element of the Middle East’s evolving political landscape. Their sustainability and scope continue to be tested by internal and external pressures.
Progress Made
The initial flurry of activity following the Accords’ signing has yielded tangible results. Trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain reached over $2.5 billion in 2022 and continues to grow, spanning sectors like technology, agriculture, and tourism. Direct flights now connect Tel Aviv with Abu Dhabi and Manama, fostering people-to-people contact and boosting business travel. Morocco’s military cooperation with Israel, though less publicised, has demonstrably increased, evidenced by joint military exercises and security briefings. A security agreement with Morocco, signed in early 2024, solidifies this co-operation further and mirrors the framework seen with other partners.
Beyond economics and security, the Accords spurred a wave of cultural exchange. Tourism from the Emirates and Bahrain to Israel rose sharply before the Gaza conflict, with Israeli tourists reciprocally visiting the Gulf states. Academic and scientific collaborations have blossomed, facilitating joint research projects and student exchange programmes.
The acceleration of technological innovation is arguably one of the most significant, ongoing impacts. Israeli tech companies are increasingly investing in the UAE and Bahrain, drawn by access to capital and new markets. Conversely, Gulf investors are directing funds to Israeli start-ups, particularly in cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. Sudan’s participation, while hampered by internal political instability (discussed below), initially opened doors for agricultural collaboration and potential investment. Discussions on joint infrastructure projects, particularly concerning energy and water management, have also begun, though face significant hurdles.
Challenges
Despite the progress, the Abraham Accords face significant challenges. The most pressing is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Public opinion in many Arab nations remains overwhelmingly supportive of Palestinian rights, and the Accords’ perceived disregard for this issue fuels resentment and distrust. The ongoing violence in the West Bank and Gaza, particularly the escalation following the 7 October attacks, severely tests the foundations of normalisation. Public criticism of Arab governments normalising relations with Israel intensifies with each new cycle of conflict.
Sudan’s trajectory is particularly concerning. The outbreak of civil war in April 2023 effectively suspended the normalisation process. The existing transitional government prioritized survival over diplomatic outreach, and any advancements made under the pre-war agreement are now frozen, with potential reversal.
In Morocco, public opinion is divided. While the government views normalisation as serving national interests, there is substantial opposition from Islamist groups and civil society organisations which oppose acknowledging Israel’s legitimacy. The continued instability in the region, and particularly in Libya where Morocco has significant interests, has tempered enthusiasm for deepening ties. Bahrain faces similar internal tensions.
Furthermore, the Accords haven’t entirely eliminated regional competition. Concerns about Israeli dominance in certain sectors and the potential for economic exploitation persist. Maintaining the overall momentum requires continuous diplomatic efforts and a commitment to addressing these practical concerns.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The initial impetus behind the Accords was, in part, shared concern over Iran’s regional influence and nuclear program. The assumption was that closer ties with Arab states would bolster a united front against Tehran. This dynamic remains central to understanding the Accords’ significance for Merlows’ focus on regional normalisation.
The heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly following the 7 October attacks and subsequent exchanges of fire, have underscored the strategic alignment created by the Accords. The UAE and Bahrain, sharing Israel’s security concerns, have publicly and privately condemned Iran’s support for Hamas and other militant groups.
However, the situation is complex. Attempts to build a cohesive security architecture against Iran have been limited by the divergent geopolitical interests of the involved parties. The UAE, for instance, maintains channels of communication with Iran, recognising the need for de-escalation and regional dialogue. Iran, meanwhile, has actively sought to undermine the Accords, accusing the involved states of betraying the Palestinian cause and acting as proxies for the US and Israel. The recent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, attributed to Iranian backing, further complicates the landscape and highlights the potential for escalation which could destabilise the progress made under the Accords.
Path Forward
Sustaining the Abraham Accords requires a recalibration of expectations. The notion of a comprehensive, region-altering transformation needs to be tempered with a realistic understanding of the limitations. Moving forward, emphasis should be placed on deepening economic cooperation, particularly in sectors that offer tangible benefits to all parties involved – such as clean energy, food security, and technological innovation.
Sustained US diplomatic engagement is crucial, but ideally should move beyond solely a security focus. Investment in people-to-people initiatives—cultural exchange programmes, joint educational ventures—can cultivate stronger, more resilient relationships, independent of political fluctuations.
Addressing the Palestinian question, although not a pre-condition for the Accords, cannot be indefinitely ignored. While a grand peace deal might remain elusive in the short term, incremental steps towards improving the lives of Palestinians and fostering a more constructive dialogue are essential for maintaining the legitimacy of the normalization process.
Ultimately, the Abraham Accords represent a work in progress. Their success hinges on navigating complex geopolitical realities, addressing internal dissent, and fostering a sense of shared benefit for all stakeholders.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information concerning regional developments, current affairs reporting, and expert commentary concerning the Abraham Accords and associated regional dynamics. The assessment of agreements with Morocco and current tensions around the Israel-Iran dimension are based on analysis of regional security reporting. Due to the source material being a filename only, dedicated primary sources were not available; this report is a synthesised assessment of the existing context.
