Breaking News: The impending US military withdrawal from Iraq is raising concerns about a potential resurgence of ISIS activity in the region.
The United States is set to complete its withdrawal of troops from Iraq by September 30th, ending a 23-year presence. This move, combined with efforts to disarm Iran-backed militias, has prompted warnings from regional security experts that Iraq could be entering its most dangerous period since ISIS seized Mosul in 2014. Dr. Omar Mohammed, author and researcher with the George Washington University Program on Extremism, states that ISIS is “actively waiting in the gaps” and poised to exploit any security vacuum.
The concern stems from a complex interplay of factors. ISIS is reportedly rebuilding its forces in Syria, with estimates suggesting a rise in fighters from 2,000 to as many as 10,000 since 2024. Simultaneously, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a large, Iran-aligned militia group with approximately 238,000 members, has not been disbanded. Mohammed explains that the militias often claim the threat of ISIS to justify maintaining their weapons, while ISIS recruits from the grievances created by the militias, mirroring the conditions that led to the fall of Mosul a decade ago.
According to Mohammed, the situation is further complicated by Iran’s influence in Iraq, and Tehran’s concern about becoming irrelevant as Iraq attempts to assert greater control over its own security. Iran views a stable, disarmed Iraq as a threat, preferring a situation where armed groups justify its continued involvement. The US withdrawal, he warns, carries the risk of repeating past errors of complacency which allowed ISIS to gain strength undetected.
The Iraqi Prime Minister’s recent White House visit to announce the troop withdrawal drew condemnation from Tehran, highlighting the regional tensions at play. The situation is described as a delicate balance between US objectives, Iraqi sovereignty, and Iran’s regional ambitions.
The coming months will be critical. A successful disarmament of militias and a sustained effort to counter ISIS will be essential to prevent a renewed crisis.
Sources: Fox News, The Jerusalem Post.
