Breaking News: The impending US military withdrawal from Iraq is raising concerns about a potential resurgence of ISIS activity in the region.
The United States is set to complete its withdrawal of troops from Iraq by September 30th, ending a 23-year presence. This move, combined with Baghdad’s attempts to curtail Iran-backed militias, is creating a security vacuum that ISIS is poised to exploit, according to regional security expert Dr. Omar Mohammed. Mohammed warns ISIS is “actively waiting in the gaps,” as it has historically done.
The situation is particularly concerning given the complex interplay between the militias and ISIS – each group benefiting from the instability the other creates. Mohammed explains that militias “claim the ISIS threat in order to keep their weapons, while ISIS recruits from the grievances that the militias create”. He points to the fall of Mosul in 2014, where the city was caught between a sectarian security apparatus and the insurgency, as a cautionary tale. ISIS numbers in Syria have reportedly increased from 2,000 to as many as 10,000 since 2024, according to Iraqi intelligence estimates cited by Fox News. The Popular Mobilization Forces, a large, Iran-linked militia group with an estimated 238,000 members, further complicates the situation. Baghdad is attempting to gain full control over these armed factions, including Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
Iran has criticised the withdrawal pact. Ali Akbar Velayati, an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, deemed Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s recent White House visit “regrettable”, claiming it undermined Iraq’s dignity, as reported by Iran International. Dr. Mohammed suggests a stable, disarmed Iraq is a threat to Tehran, as it reduces Iranian influence in the region.
The withdrawal follows a 2024 agreement, continuing support for anti-ISIS operations in Syria until September 2026. Mohammed cautions that repeating past complacency—withdrawing attention and resources before a threat is fully contained—could prove disastrous.
Reaction & Context
Dr. Mohammed, author of Mosul Eye, which documented life under ISIS rule, warns that the U.S. withdrawal, combined with the internal Iraqi struggle for control, mirrors the conditions that led to ISIS’s initial gains. He stresses the significance of proactively monitoring and addressing the threat, noting, “Mosul did not fall in 2014 because ISIS was strong. It fell because everything that would have detected its strength… had been withdrawn.” This situation poses a direct risk to regional stability and potentially US interests.
What Happens Next
Following the troop withdrawal, the focus will be on Iraq’s ability to maintain security and prevent a resurgence of ISIS. The success of Baghdad in disarming the militias and consolidating state control will be critical.
Sources: Fox News, The Jerusalem Post.
