Abraham Accords: Examining how energy cooperation builds bridges, despite persisting regional tensions.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relations in the Middle East. Initiated under the Trump administration, the agreements normalised relations between Israel and four Arab nations: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. While Sudan’s progress has stalled following the outbreak of conflict there, the relationships with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have deepened, fostering cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, and security. The foundational principle rests on shared concerns regarding Iran and a desire for economic opportunity, diverging from decades of Arab consensus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the Accords remain a debated topic, criticised by some as sidelining the Palestinian issue and potentially exacerbating regional instability. Today, they stand as a complex network of bilateral agreements, unevenly implemented and constantly subject to geopolitical shifts.
Progress Made: Energy Cooperation as a Cornerstone
The discovery of substantial natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly in Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar fields, has emerged as a key driver of collaboration facilitated by the Abraham Accords. These fields, which began production in the early 2010s, transformed Israel from a net energy importer to a potential exporter. Initially, export options were limited due to regional political complexities. However, the normalisation agreements opened new avenues for trade.
The UAE has become a significant partner, with the establishment of direct energy deals. In 2022, a consortium led by the UAE’s Mubadala Energy secured a stake in the Tamar field, injecting significant investment and strengthening energy security for both countries. This deal signified a tangible economic benefit stemming directly from normalised relations.
Bahrain has also shown interest in Israeli gas, although trade has been more nascent, focusing on discussions regarding pipeline infrastructure and potential supply agreements. Morocco, while prioritising political and security ties, benefits from increased regional economic integration, implicitly supported by secure energy flows.
Beyond direct gas sales, the Accords are facilitating broader energy cooperation. Discussions are underway regarding joint exploration projects in the Eastern Mediterranean, potentially including areas previously hampered by political disputes. The EastMed Pipeline project, aiming to transport gas to Europe, saw renewed discussion (though remains challenging given geopolitical factors and European energy transition aims), with potential for Israeli and Arab partners to collaboratively develop the infrastructure. Importantly, the focus isn’t solely on exporting gas to these countries; Israeli companies are also investing in renewable energy projects within Accords partners, showcasing a broader energy partnership. This includes collaboration on desalination technology, essential for water-stressed nations in the region.
Challenges: Political Hurdles and Domestic Concerns
Despite the economic benefits, the implementation of the Accords and the associated energy deals haven’t been without significant challenges. Palestinian discontent remains a primary impediment. The perception that the Accords sidelined the Palestinian cause continues to fuel resentment, contributing to sporadic violence and hindering broader regional stability. While the Accords’ proponents argue they create a more favourable environment for eventual peace negotiations, critics contend they have undermined the possibility of a two-state solution.
Public opinion within Arab countries also presents a hurdle. While governments have embraced the normalisation process, varying levels of public support exist. In some cases, strong pro-Palestinian sentiment limits the scope of public displays of cooperation with Israel. Political backlash against perceived ‘alignment’ with Israel is a real concern for ruling regimes.
Geopolitical complexities are also at play. The ongoing conflict in Yemen, the evolving situation in Syria, and fluctuating oil prices all impact regional dynamics and can affect the prioritisation of energy projects. Moreover, the technical and logistical challenges of building pipelines and establishing new energy infrastructure are considerable and require substantial investment and cross-border coordination.
Security concerns also persist. Ensuring the security of gas pipelines and offshore facilities in a volatile region necessitates close collaboration on maritime security and counter-terrorism efforts. Disputes over maritime borders in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly between Turkey and Greece (and by extension involving Cyprus and Israel) continue to create potential flashpoints that could disrupt energy projects.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Shared Strategic Concern
The Abraham Accords are inextricably linked to shared concerns about Iran’s regional influence. All parties involved – Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco – view Iran as a destabilizing force. The normalisation agreements can be seen, in part, as a strategic alignment against Iran, creating a bloc of nations with a common interest in containing its power.
Energy cooperation further strengthens this alignment. A stable and reliable energy supply, sourced from the Eastern Mediterranean, reduces reliance on Iranian energy exports and enhances the collective bargaining power of Accords partners.
However, Iran casts a long shadow over these developments. Tehran views the Accords as a hostile act, designed to isolate it further and undermine its regional ambitions. Escalations in tensions between Israel and Iran, such as Iran’s proxy attacks and Israel’s responses, have the potential to disrupt energy projects and destabilise the entire region. The threat of attacks on critical energy infrastructure, whether perpetrated by Iran directly or through its proxies, remains a constant concern, requiring increased security measures and international diplomacy. Iran’s development of nuclear capabilities also complicates the situation, adding another layer of risk to regional stability and energy security.
Path Forward: Incremental Progress and Risk Management
The future of the Abraham Accords and the associated energy cooperation hinges on managing existing challenges and pursuing incremental progress. A breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations remains unlikely in the short term, but continued efforts to de-escalate tensions and address humanitarian concerns in the Palestinian territories are crucial.
Focusing on concrete economic benefits – expanding trade, increasing investment, and facilitating joint energy projects – will be key to cementing the gains made so far. Diversifying energy partnerships beyond gas, exploring opportunities in renewable energy and green technologies, could broaden the scope of cooperation.
Addressing domestic concerns within Arab countries will require transparent communication about the benefits of normalisation and a commitment to inclusive economic development. Greater public diplomacy and cultural exchange programs could help foster people-to-people connections and build support for the Accords.
Managing the Israel-Iran dimension effectively is paramount. This requires a combination of robust security measures, diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, and continued coordination with international partners. The US role in mediating regional disputes and providing security assurances will remain vital. Ultimately, a pragmatic approach focusing on managing risks and building trust – one step at a time – offers the most realistic path forward, recognising that complete regional transformation is a long-term and complex process.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information regarding the discovery and development of the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields, the Abraham Accords, and regional energy markets. Reports from the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the Atlantic Council, and news publications including Reuters, the Financial Times, and the Jerusalem Post were consulted in developing this overview.
