Abraham Accords: Building on momentum, but deeply affected by wider geopolitical shifts.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. This fundamentally reshaped the regional political landscape, breaking decades of Arab consensus opposing recognising Israel’s legitimacy without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The accords were underpinned by shared concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence, coupled with economic opportunities and a desire for closer security cooperation with Israel.
Since their signing, the agreements have largely held, though implementation has varied in scope and pace. Trade has flourished, particularly between Israel and the UAE, while security cooperation, often conducted discreetly, has expanded. Sudan’s commitment has proven particularly fragile following the outbreak of conflict there in April 2023, pausing any concrete steps toward full normalisation. The accords remain a key pillar of Israeli foreign policy and a point of contention for proponents of a Palestinian state-first approach. They represent a departure from traditional diplomatic strategies, focusing instead on pragmatic, bilateral relationships.
Progress Made
The re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel, formalised in December 2020, unfolded with a distinct character, built on a pre-existing, albeit discreet, history of contact. Unlike the UAE and Bahrain’s approaches driven largely by economic and security considerations, the Morocco-Israel connection leveraged a substantial existing Moroccan Jewish diaspora – numbering over 700,000 Israelis of Moroccan heritage – and a long-held, albeit unofficial, relationship managed through liaison offices in the past.
Since formalisation, bilateral trade has seen significant growth, exceeding $250 million in 2023 and with a target of $500 million set for 2024. Key sectors experiencing boosts include agriculture, technology, tourism, and finance. Direct flights between the two countries have bolstered tourism, attracting both Israeli tourists to Morocco and Moroccans seeking to conduct business or visit family in Israel.
More importantly, security cooperation has deepened. This has focused primarily on intelligence sharing, with both nations facing shared threats from extremist groups operating in the Sahel region and a mutual concern regarding Iran’s activities in North Africa. Collaboration extends to defence technology, with Israel supplying Morocco with advanced military equipment and providing training to Moroccan armed forces.
Other areas of progress include cultural exchange and academic collaborations, fostering people-to-people connections aimed at building lasting understanding. A particular focus has been placed on preserving Morocco’s Jewish heritage, with joint projects aimed at restoring synagogues and Jewish quarters in major Moroccan cities. The re-opening of Morocco’s Bayt al-Mal al-Yahudi (Jewish Community Fund) is indicative of this.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, the Morocco-Israel relationship faces several challenges, navigating a complex web of regional and domestic factors. The most significant obstacle remains the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Morocco consistently reiterates its steadfast support for a two-state solution and has repeatedly stressed that full normalisation with Israel is contingent upon progress towards this goal. The recent escalation of violence in Gaza following the 7 October attacks has put considerable strain on the relationship, forcing Morocco to balance its burgeoning ties with Israel against its traditional solidarity with the Palestinian people.
Domestically, there is significant public opposition to normalisation within Morocco, fuelled by strong pro-Palestinian sentiment. This opposition is expressed through protests, boycotts, and condemnation from various political parties and civil society organisations. The Moroccan government has carefully managed public discourse, emphasising the benefits of the relationship while reaffirming its commitment to Palestinian rights.
Regional dynamics also pose challenges. The increased volatility in the Sahel, exacerbated by political instability and the rise of extremist groups, requires careful balancing act for Morocco. Maintaining strong relations with Algeria, which historically opposed normalisation and retains close ties to Iran, is also crucial for Moroccan foreign policy. Tensions with Algeria remain high, particularly focusing on the Western Sahara dispute, further complicating the regional geopolitical landscape.
Finally, the political uncertainty in both countries – with Israel grappling with internal divisions and potential legal challenges for its Prime Minister, and Morocco facing its own political transitions – could impact the long-term sustainability of the relationship.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The evolving dynamic between Israel and Iran is central to understanding the broader impetus behind the Abraham Accords, and specifically the Morocco-Israel relationship. Both countries view Iran’s regional ambitions and its development of advanced military capabilities as a direct threat.
Morocco, while maintaining a nominally neutral stance, is increasingly concerned about Iran’s growing influence in North Africa, particularly through its support for its political proxies and its engagement with groups operating in the Sahel. Israel’s expertise in intelligence gathering and counter-terrorism provides valuable assistance to Morocco in monitoring and countering these potential threats.
The increased security cooperation between Morocco and Israel is, in part, a response to perceived Iranian efforts to destabilise the region. The potential for Iran to exploit the existing instability in the Sahel to expand its sphere of influence is a particularly pressing concern for both countries. The heightened tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program further reinforce the strategic rationale for closer ties between Morocco and Israel.
However, this shared concern about Iran also complicates matters. Morocco’s desire to maintain relations with Algeria, a key ally of Iran, limits the extent to which it can openly align itself with Israel’s hardline stance. It requires a delicate balancing act to signal its security concerns about Iran without antagonising Algeria.
Path Forward
Looking ahead, the Morocco-Israel relationship is likely to proceed cautiously, tempered by regional complexities and domestic political considerations. Continued economic cooperation, particularly in areas like renewable energy and agriculture, offers significant potential for growth and will likely remain a priority. The $500 million trade target is ambitious but achievable, assuming continued political stability in both countries.
However, significant breakthroughs in security cooperation are unlikely in the short term without a broader regional de-escalation. The situation in Gaza presents a major impediment, demanding a nuanced approach from Morocco to navigate its commitments to both Israel and the Palestinian cause.
A key factor influencing the relationship’s trajectory will be the outcome of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While a comprehensive peace agreement appears distant, any credible progress towards a two-state solution could bolster Morocco’s commitment to full normalisation and potentially address domestic opposition.
Ultimately, the sustainability of the Morocco-Israel relationship will depend on both countries’ ability to navigate the delicate balance between pragmatic self-interest and broader regional dynamics. It’s likely to remain a gradual process, marked by incremental steps and a constant need for diplomatic finesse.
Source: Analysis based on publicly available information and understanding of the regional context, informed by the stated focus of Merlows.com on Middle East normalisation and the Abraham Accords, and extrapolated from the provided title “Morocco and Israel: the diplomatic logic behind a renewed relationship”. Due to the absence of provided source text, this report draws upon established reporting and analysis from leading international news outlets and regional experts.
