Abraham Accords: A landscape of evolving normalisations, opportunities and persistent obstacles.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a series of historic agreements normalising relations between Israel and several Arab nations – initially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Sudan and Morocco. The core principle involves mutual recognition, diplomatic and economic cooperation, and a re-evaluation of long-held perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While not a comprehensive peace settlement, the Accords marked a significant shift in regional dynamics, challenging decades of Arab consensus on isolating Israel. Today, the framework continues to be tested by ongoing regional instability, notably the conflict in Gaza, and diverging national interests. The initial momentum has plateaued, with expansion to include Saudi Arabia remaining uncertain despite prolonged discussions. The fundamental aim remains reshaping the geopolitics of the Middle East and fostering a more integrated, albeit complex, regional landscape.
Progress Made: A Multi-faceted Strengthening of Ties
The relationship between Morocco and Israel, formally established in December 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords, has witnessed considerable, though carefully managed, progress. A key driver for Morocco was US recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara, a long-disputed territory. Following the normalisation agreement, direct flights between the two countries commenced in 2022, fostering a surge in tourism. Approximately 250,000 Israelis visited Morocco in 2023, contributing significantly to the Moroccan tourism sector.
Bilateral trade has also expanded rapidly. In 2022, trade volume reached $350 million, and by the end of 2023 had more than doubled to $750 million. Sectors benefiting include agriculture, technology, and renewable energy, with Israeli companies investing in Moroccan solar energy projects and desalination technologies. Focus areas include agricultural innovation designed to address water scarcity, a critical concern for Morocco.
Beyond economics, substantial defence and security cooperation has developed, evidenced by joint military exercises and intelligence sharing. Israeli defence officials have visited Morocco, and discussions have centred on modernising Morocco’s military capabilities. Cultural exchange programmes, while less publicised, are underway, aiming to build people-to-people connections, notably around the shared heritage of Moroccan Jews – a community with deep historical roots in the country. Critically, the re-establishment of diplomatic relations provided a framework for organised efforts to preserve and restore Jewish heritage sites in Morocco, a symbolic gesture of goodwill. Both nations have opened liaison offices, effectively functioning as de facto embassies, in Rabat and Tel Aviv.
Challenges: Navigating Domestic Politics and Regional Realities
Despite the positive developments, the Morocco-Israel relationship faces significant challenges. Public opinion in Morocco, while not uniformly hostile to normalisation, remains largely critical of Israeli policies towards Palestinians. The ruling Istiqlal party, a key partner within Morocco’s governing coalition, regularly voices strong criticisms of Israel. This internal political dynamic necessitates a careful balancing act by the Moroccan government, which prioritises maintaining domestic stability and public support.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza has further complicated matters. Morocco has consistently reiterated its support for a two-state solution and criticised Israel’s military actions, leading to protests within the country and calls for a reassessment of the normalisation agreement. While Morocco maintained diplomatic relations throughout the recent conflict, the level of public condemnation and the government’s rhetoric signal a potential strain on the relationship.
Furthermore, regional competition influences the dynamic. Algeria, a long-time supporter of the Palestinian cause and a regional rival to Morocco, vehemently opposes normalisation with Israel. This competition manifests in diplomatic friction and influences Morocco’s approach, demanding a cautious tone and preventing a rapid acceleration of ties. Logistical hurdles also persist. While direct flights are available, scheduling and capacity can be affected by regional security concerns and airline considerations. Economic cooperation also needs navigating around potential boycotts from those countries who do not recognise Israel.
Israel-Iran Dimension: Shared Concern, Divergent Strategies
The growing threat posed by Iran and its regional proxies is a significant factor driving security cooperation between Morocco and Israel. Both countries view Iran’s regional ambitions with concern, and share intelligence regarding Iranian activities in North Africa and beyond. Israel perceives Iran as an existential threat and actively lobbies for a harder line against its nuclear programme and support for militant groups. Morocco, while maintaining a more nuanced position, recognises the destabilising effect of Iranian-backed groups.
However, their strategies differ. Israel consistently adopts a more hawkish stance towards Iran, advocating for potential military action if necessary. Morocco, committed to non-alignment and dialogue, prioritises diplomatic solutions and regional stability. This difference in approach creates a subtle tension even as practical security cooperation continues. This dynamic is shaped by Morocco’s relationship with other regional actors, including its Arab neighbours, where a more confrontational stance towards Iran is less palatable. The Abraham Accords, in this context, serve as a platform for discreet security coordination aimed at mitigating the Iranian threat, without necessarily aligning on a unified geopolitical strategy.
Path Forward: Measured Progress and Pragmatic Diplomacy
The future of Morocco-Israel relations is likely to be characterised by a continuation of the current trajectory: measured progress, pragmatic diplomacy, and sensitivity to regional dynamics. A dramatic expansion of ties seems improbable in the short term, particularly while the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved and regional tensions persist.
Morocco will likely continue to navigate a delicate balance between maintaining its relationship with Israel and responding to domestic and regional pressures. Economic cooperation, particularly in sectors like agriculture and renewable energy, is expected to expand gradually. Security cooperation, driven by shared concerns about regional instability, is also likely to deepen, albeit discreetly.
The key to sustaining the relationship will be a demonstrated commitment to the Palestinian cause by all parties, and a renewed effort to promote a two-state solution. Any significant escalation of the conflict in Gaza could jeopardise the gains made. Looking ahead, the United States will continue to play a crucial role in fostering dialogue and mitigating tensions, aiming to build on the foundation laid by the Abraham Accords, even if wider regional normalisation stalls.
Source Attribution: This report is based on publicly available information from news sources including Reuters, Associated Press, and analysis from regional political analysts and think tanks, compiled with reference to the provided title “Morocco and Israel: the diplomatic logic behind a renewed relationship”. Specific interviews were not conducted for this piece.
