Abraham Accords: A Shifting Regional Calculus Driven by Security Concerns.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They saw the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain formally normalise relations with Israel, followed by Morocco and Sudan, building on decades of unofficial cooperation. The core principle behind the Accords was a recalibration of priorities: offering Israel recognition in exchange for a halting of planned annexation of Palestinian territories (a commitment that ultimately wasn’t fully realised) and, crucially, a strengthened alliance against a perceived common threat – Iran and its regional proxies. While Sudan’s progress towards full normalisation stalled following the outbreak of conflict in April 2023, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have continued to deepen ties with Israel, establishing diplomatic representation, trade links and security collaboration. The Accords remain a complex and contested issue, with varying degrees of public support across the Arab world and ongoing concerns regarding the Palestinian question. But they undoubtedly redraw the diplomatic map.
Progress Made
The practical advancements stemming from the Abraham Accords have been considerable, though unevenly distributed. Trade between Israel and its new partners has blossomed. In 2022, trade with the UAE reached over $2.7 billion, and with Morocco, approximately $500 million. Bahrain also saw significant growth, particularly in technology and investment. Israel has become a significant security partner for these nations, providing advanced defence systems and intelligence sharing focused on countering Iranian drone technology and ballistic missiles.
Tourism has also experienced a surge. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis visited the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain in the years following the Accords’ signing. Direct flights were established, fostering people-to-people connections. Culturally, collaborations in the arts, sports and education have begun to emerge, though these are often less publicly visible.
Beyond bilateral relations, we’ve seen the establishment of the Negev Forum, an initiative bringing together foreign ministers from Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt, and the US to foster regional cooperation on issues ranging from food security and water to energy and health. While facing some challenges due to regional instability, the Forum demonstrates a continued commitment (at least at a governmental level) to fostering continued collaboration. Security cooperation has definately deepened, with joint military drills, intelligence sharing, and the possible establishment of a US-led regional security architecture focused on integrated air defence also under discussion.
Challenges
Despite the visible progress, significant challenges persist that impede wider normalisation. Public opinion in many Arab nations remains largely opposed to normalising relations with Israel without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This creates a domestic political constraint for governments who entered the Accords, limiting the scope and pace of further integration.
The Israeli-Palestinian issue continues to be a fundamental stumbling block. The absence of meaningful progress towards a two-state solution, coupled with ongoing settlement expansion and violence in the West Bank, fuels resentment and undermines the legitimacy of the Accords in the eyes of many Arabs. The escalation of violence in Gaza following Hamas’s October 2023 attack on Israel has further complicated the situation, leading to a temporary suspension of diplomatic relations with some countries.
There’s also a degree of mistrust and lingering hesitancy. Concerns about the reliability of the United States’ commitment to regional security, and particularly its long-term policy towards Iran, are prevalent. Moreover, economic benefits haven’t been equally distributed. While some businesses have thrived, others have faced logistical and bureaucratic hurdles. Within the Gulf, there’s also a recognition that deeper ties with Israel may strain relationships with traditional allies in the wider Arab world, such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria.
The political instability in Sudan has effectively halted the normalisation process there, potentially setting a worrying precedent for other nations considering a similar pathway.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The driving force behind the Abraham Accords, as highlighted by the document’s title, is inextricably linked to the evolving threat perception of Iran’s regional influence. For the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, Iran’s support for proxies – such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq and Syria – represents a direct challenge to their national security interests. They view Iran’s ballistic missile program and nuclear ambitions as destabilising forces, and the Accords provide a framework for closer security cooperation with Israel, perceived as a valuable ally in countering these threats.
Israel explicitly frames Iran as an existential threat, and the normalisation agreements are seen as building a united front against it. Israeli officials frequently emphasize the importance of regional collaboration, citing the need to deter Iran and its allies.
The increased intelligence sharing and potential joint military exercises, born out of the accord’s momentum, are directly geared towards bolstering defences against Iran. Furthermore, the potential establishment of a US-led regional air defence system would heavily lean on Israeli assets and expertise, designed to intercept Iranian drones and missiles. The challenge, of course, lies in balancing this security cooperation with the need to avoid escalating tensions and potentially dragging the region into a wider conflict.
Path Forward
The future of Arab-Israeli normalisation remains uncertain, heavily dependent on a complex interplay of regional dynamics. The immediate priority is stabilising the situation in Gaza and finding a pathway towards de-escalation of conflict. While the Accords haven’t been entirely derailed by the recent violence, they are undoubtedly under strain.
Further normalisation breakthroughs – notably with Saudi Arabia – are still possible, though the conditions are more challenging than they were in 2020. Saudi Arabia’s demands, including significant concessions to the Palestinians, are likely to be a key sticking point. The US role remains crucial in facilitating any future agreements, but its capacity to effectively mediate is impacted by domestic political considerations and its own complex relationship with Iran.
A phased approach to integration is likely to be the most realistic. Focusing on areas of mutual benefit—like trade, technology, and climate change—while addressing security concerns related to Iran, can gradually build trust and foster deeper cooperation. However, ignoring the Palestinian issue will continue to be a significant impediment to broader acceptance of the Accords.
Ultimately, the longevity of the Abraham Accords will hinge on creating a regional environment where all parties feel secure, and where the benefits of cooperation demonstrably outweigh the risks of continued conflict.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information regarding the Abraham Accords, regional developments in the Middle East, and analysis of the geopolitical landscape through the lens of Iran’s regional influence. It also draws upon reports and analysis from international think tanks focusing on Middle Eastern affairs, as well as established news sources such as the Associated Press, Reuters, and The Financial Times. Information is compiled based on the framing provided by the original file name: “How Iran’s rise pushed Gulf states toward Israel”.
