Abraham Accords: A landmark shift in regional dynamics, but far from a complete transformation.
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant realignment of political and economic relationships in the Middle East. The core agreements saw Israel normalise relations with four Arab nations – the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan – in exchange for various concessions, most notably a suspension of Israel’s planned annexation of parts of the West Bank. These were the first such normalisations with Gulf states in decades, breaking with long-held pan-Arab policies. While Sudan’s participation remains fragile and currently stalled, the UAE stands as the most robust and economically integrated partner. Today, over five years on, the initial momentum faces headwinds from regional conflicts, domestic political changes, and the overarching shadow of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The Accords haven’t delivered a comprehensive peace, but have demonstrably shifted the geopolitical landscape.
Progress Made: A Flourishing, Though Uneven, Partnership
The UAE’s normalisation with Israel has yielded genuinely remarkable progress across multiple sectors, evolving beyond initial diplomatic niceties. Trade between the two nations surged, reaching over $2.7 billion in 2023, a considerable increase from the negligible figures prior to 2020. This has encompassed areas like technology, renewable energy, tourism, and food security. Significant investments have flowed both ways; Mubadala, the UAE’s sovereign wealth fund, has explored opportunities in Israeli tech, while Israeli firms have expanded into the UAE market.
Tourism has also blossomed, with hundreds of thousands of Israelis visiting the UAE annually, particularly Dubai, reversing the previous need for discreet travel via third countries. Direct flights operate regularly, facilitating both leisure and business travel.
Beyond economics, there has been increasing security cooperation, largely focused on countering Iranian influence in the region. This includes intelligence sharing and, reportedly, joint military exercises. The UAE and Israel collaborate on cyber security initiatives, recognising shared vulnerabilities.
Educational and cultural exchanges have begun to take shape, with academic partnerships and artist collaborations emerging, albeit at a slower pace. A visa waiver agreement, signed in 2022, further simplified travel and fostered people-to-people connections. The opening of the Israeli embassy in Abu Dhabi and the UAE embassy in Tel Aviv solidified the diplomatic foundations of the relationship, signalling a firm commitment to long-term engagement. The focus on practical, tangible benefits has been a key driver of the partnership’s success, aiming to build trust and reduce reliance on solely political considerations.
Challenges: War, Domestic Shifts and the Palestinian Question
Despite the successes, the UAE-Israel relationship is not without significant challenges. The most immediate and profound is the ongoing conflict in Gaza, triggered by the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent military response. The UAE, while condemning the Hamas attacks, has consistently voiced strong concern over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and called for an immediate ceasefire, putting it at odds with Israel’s initial response and prolonging tensions. Public opinion within the UAE, and across the Arab world, remains overwhelmingly critical of Israel’s actions, creating a delicate balancing act for the Emirati government.
Domestic political considerations also play a role. The UAE leadership faces the need to navigate public sentiment and the broader regional context, ensuring that the normalisation process does not appear to come at the expense of Palestinian rights. The slow progress on a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian peace process remains a significant stumbling block. Many in the Arab world see normalisation as legitimising Israel’s actions without commensurate concessions to the Palestinians.
Furthermore, economic challenges exist. While trade has increased, it has not reached the levels initially predicted by some analysts. Competition from other regional actors and global economic headwinds may also impede future growth. The suspension of Sudan’s normalisation trajectory, due to the ongoing conflict there, acts as a cautionary tale about the volatility of the regional landscape. Concerns also linger around potential legal challenges related to business dealings with Israeli companies operating in occupied territories.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Shared Security Concern
The shared concern over Iran’s regional ambitions has been a significant underpinning of the UAE’s decision to normalise relations with Israel. Both nations perceive Iran as a destabilising force and share intelligence on Iranian activities, including its nuclear programme, ballistic missile development, and support for proxy groups. The UAE, having experienced direct attacks from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, understands the threat posed by Tehran.
Israel views the normalisation agreements as strengthening its strategic depth and creating a more robust alliance network to contain Iran. The UAE’s sophisticated military capabilities and strategic location add valuable assets to this emerging security architecture. This element is crucial within the Merlows coverage area as normalisation isn’t simply about commerce; it’s reshaping the security dynamic in a region where Iran’s influence looms large. However, the increased regional tensions caused by the Gaza conflict have also heightened the risk of direct or proxy confrontations involving Iran, potentially straining the UAE’s already complex relationship with both Israel and Iran.
Path Forward: Pragmatism and Incremental Progress
Looking ahead, the UAE-Israel relationship is likely to continue, but with adjustments. A full-scale return to the pre-October 7th status quo seems unlikely in the short to medium term. The UAE will likely maintain its diplomatic engagement with Israel, driven largely by pragmatic, economic considerations and shared security concerns. However, it will also prioritise its traditional Arab and Islamic credentials, maintaining a critical stance on Israeli policies towards the Palestinians and pushing for a renewed peace process.
The focus will likely shift towards more discreet security cooperation and away from overt displays of normalisation to mitigate domestic criticism. More innovative economic collaborations, potentially focusing on technologies with broad regional impact, could help sustain the momentum.
The success of the Abraham Accords ultimately hinges on addressing the Palestinian issue. Unless there is genuine progress towards a two-state solution, the normalisation process will remain incomplete and vulnerable to setbacks. Realistically, incremental steps – confidence-building measures, humanitarian aid to Palestinians, and renewed diplomatic efforts – offer the most viable path forward.
Source: This report is based on publicly available information, analysis from regional experts, and observation of developments pertaining to the UAE-Israel relationship. Given the sensitive nature of the topic and lack of official source text, the report synthesises commonly reported trends and analysis appearing in sources like Reuters, Associated Press, The Financial Times, and specialist Middle East intelligence publications.
