Abraham Accords: A brief history of the US-brokered normalisation agreements and their current state.
The Abraham Accords, initiated in 2020, represent a paradigm shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Brokered largely by the Trump administration, the Accords saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, marking the first significant expansion of Israeli diplomatic recognition in the Arab world since Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. The central premise revolved around establishing deeper economic, cultural, and security cooperation, framed as mutual benefit and a new path towards regional stability. While Sudan’s progress has stalled following the conflict there, the relationships with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco have visibly deepened. However, the Accords remain controversial, eliciting criticism from Palestinians who view them as undermining the pursuit of a two-state solution and failing to adequately address core issues of occupation and self-determination. Today, the Accords stand as a complex web of evolving relationships, impacted by shifting regional dynamics and ongoing conflicts.
Progress Made: Deepening Bilateral & Regional Cooperation
The UAE’s journey towards normalisation with Israel, beginning in August 2020, has demonstrably translated into tangible progress across several sectors. Bilateral trade between the two nations soared, reaching over $2.7 billion in 2022 and continuing to grow. A Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2022 has significantly reduced tariffs and barriers to trade, facilitating increased investment in sectors like technology, renewable energy, and tourism. Strategic partnerships rapidly emerged – most notably in technology, with joint ventures focused on cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and water management. Significant cultural exchange programmes have been implemented, fostering people-to-people connections, including reciprocal tourism drives with hundreds of thousands participating.
Beyond bilateral ties, the normalisation process has facilitated novel regional collaborations. The ‘Desert Falcon’ military exercise, a joint air defence drill between the UAE, Israel, and the United States, signalled a new level of security cooperation, intended to counter aerial threats. The I2U2 group – a forum involving Israel, India, the UAE, and the United States – has been established to collaborate on projects related to food security, water, energy, and space. These initiatives, though still in early stages, demonstrate a potential for wider regional integration. The UAE has also actively championed the inclusion of Israel in existing regional forums and summits, normalizing its presence within the broader diplomatic landscape. Further, collaborations continue in healthcare, seeing the sharing of medical knowledge and technology.
Challenges: Palestinian Disappointment & Regional Skepticism
Despite the visible momentum, the Abraham Accords are not without significant challenges. The most persistent criticism stems from the Palestinian perspective. The Accords were signed without Palestinian involvement or consent, sparking accusations that Arab states had prioritised their own interests over the Palestinian cause. Palestinian authorities condemned the move, fearing it would further entrench the Israeli occupation and diminish the prospect of an independent Palestinian state. This has fuelled resentment and distrust, contributing to ongoing tensions in the West Bank and Gaza.
Regional skepticism also persists. While Bahrain and Morocco have followed the UAE’s lead in normalising relations, many Arab nations remain hesitant, citing the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a prerequisite for full normalisation. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely opposed to normalisation without a just settlement for Palestinians.
Further complicating matters is the ongoing political instability in the region. Conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Libya continue to divert attention and resources, hindering broader regional cooperation. Domestic political pressures within the signatory states also play a role, as leaders must balance the benefits of normalisation with potential backlash from constituencies critical of closer ties with Israel. Political transitions and changes in leadership within the Arab world could also lead to a reassessment of the Accords’ trajectory. The recent escalations of violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have also demonstrably cooled relations, albeit temporarily, showcasing the fragility of the newly-forged ties.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Growing Security Nexus
The evolving relationship between the UAE and Israel is inextricably linked to shared concerns about Iran’s regional influence. Both nations perceive Iran as a destabilising force, and deepening security cooperation through the Abraham Accords is, in part, a response to this perceived threat. The UAE has frequently cited Iran’s ballistic missile programme and support for proxy groups as key drivers of its security concerns.
Israel views a strengthened partnership with the UAE as crucial for containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and countering its regional activities. Intelligence sharing and joint military exercises are believed to be central components of this expanding security nexus. The increasing integration of Israel into regional security architectures, facilitated by the UAE’s efforts, is seen as a way to build a united front against Iran.
However, this alignment also carries risks. Iran views the Accords as a deliberate attempt to isolate it and undermine its influence. Any escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran – such as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities or proxy conflicts – could potentially draw the UAE further into the fray. This dynamic introduces a significant layer of complexity to the regional security landscape, intensifying the potential for miscalculation and conflict.
Path Forward: Incrementalism & Conditional Engagement
The future of the Abraham Accords appears to be one of incremental progress and conditional engagement. A dramatic expansion of the Accords to include Saudi Arabia, despite significant progress in talks, remains uncertain, heavily dependent on concessions regarding the Palestinian issue and reassurance on security guarantees. A reset of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians is unlikely in the near term, hindering any comprehensive resolution to the underlying issues that fuel regional tensions.
Realistically, the focus will likely remain on deepening existing bilateral ties and exploring further avenues for regional cooperation within the framework of the I2U2 forum and other initiatives. Strengthening economic integration and expanding technological collaboration will remain priorities. However, this will require a sustained commitment from all parties to address the legitimate concerns of Palestinians and to avoid actions that could further escalate regional tensions.
Ultimately, the long-term success of the Abraham Accords will depend on its ability to demonstrate tangible benefits for all stakeholders, including the Palestinian people. Continued, quiet diplomacy, coupled with confidence-building measures, will be essential to navigate the complex challenges and to build a more stable and prosperous Middle East.
Source: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, regional media reports and commentary relating to the UAE-Israel normalisation agreement and the Abraham Accords, collated between October 26th and November 2nd 2023. No direct source file was provided.
