thought

Strategic Waters: Why the Red Sea is Pivotal for Gulf–Israel Security

Abraham Accords: A new paradigm for regional integration and collective security.

Context

The Abraham Accords, signed in September 2020, marked a historic shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. By formalising diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab nations—most notably the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain—the agreements moved beyond the traditional “land for peace” formula, pivoting instead toward a model of “peace for peace” based on shared economic interests and mutual security concerns.

Today, the Accords represent more than just diplomatic handshakes; they are the foundation for a burgeoning regional bloc. This alignment is driven by a desire to diversify economies, foster technological innovation, and create a collective strategic front. However, as the focus shifts from the boardroom to the battlefield, the Accords are being tested by regional instabilities, proving that while diplomatic frameworks are robust, the physical security of trade routes and maritime corridors remains the ultimate litmus test for their longevity.

Progress Made

The primary victory of the Abraham Accords has been the transition from clandestine cooperation to open, institutionalised strategic partnerships. In the realm of security, this has manifested as a shared interest in protecting the “maritime arteries” of the region. The Red Sea, acting as the critical link between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean, has become a focal point for this cooperation.

Concrete progress is evident in the increased transparency regarding maritime surveillance and intelligence sharing. The Gulf states and Israel have recognised that the security of the Bab el-Mandeb strait is not a national concern but a systemic one. By aligning their security architectures, these nations are working towards a synchronised response to maritime threats, ensuring that the flow of commercial shipping—vital for the GDP of the UAE and Saudi Arabia and the survival of the Israeli economy—remains uninterrupted.

Furthermore, the Accords have paved the way for joint exercises and the potential for a coordinated naval presence. The shift toward “integrated deterrence” allows these partners to monitor hostile activity in the Red Sea more effectively than any single nation could alone. This cooperation extends to the sharing of advanced drone technology and radar systems, allowing for a comprehensive “common operating picture” of the maritime domain. Economically, the security of these waters has encouraged deeper investment in port infrastructure and logistics hubs, weaving the economic fates of the signatory nations together. The result is a move away from fragmented security patches toward a comprehensive regional shield, where the stability of the Red Sea is viewed as a prerequisite for the prosperity of the entire Abrahamic bloc.

Challenges

Despite these strides, the road to a fully integrated security apparatus is fraught with obstacles. The most immediate challenge is the asymmetrical nature of the threats. The rise of non-state actors and proxy militias capable of deploying sophisticated anti-ship missiles and unmanned surface vessels (USVs) has turned the Red Sea into a high-risk zone. These actors do not adhere to the diplomatic norms of the Abraham Accords, and their ability to disrupt global trade creates constant pressure on the signatory nations.

Political sensitivities also remain a significant hurdle. While the security benefits of cooperation are clear, the public perception in some Arab capitals remains volatile. The ongoing tensions surrounding the Palestinian territories often complicate the domestic narrative, making overt military cooperation between Gulf states and Israel a politically sensitive venture. This creates a “glass ceiling” for how far the security integration can go; much of the most effective cooperation must still occur behind closed doors to avoid domestic backlash.

Moreover, there is the challenge of coordinating different military doctrines and technical standards. Integrating the high-tech, agile Israeli naval capabilities with the larger, more traditional Gulf fleets requires significant diplomatic and technical synchronisation. There is also the risk of “over-reliance” on a single security partner, as Gulf nations balance their Abraham Accords commitments with their longstanding security guarantees from the United States. Ensuring that these various alliances do not clash or create contradictory strategic priorities is a delicate balancing act that requires constant diplomatic calibration to avoid friction.

Israel-Iran Dimension

The overarching driver of the Red Sea security imperative is the systemic rivalry between Israel and Iran. Tehran’s strategic objective has long been to project power beyond the Persian Gulf, seeking a foothold in the Red Sea to threaten both Israeli shipping and the energy exports of the Gulf monarchies. By supporting Houthi militants in Yemen, Iran has effectively created a “southern front” that can be activated to destabilize the region.

For the Abraham Accords partners, the Red Sea is the primary theatre where Iranian “grey zone” warfare is most visible. The threat is not merely tactical but existential; a permanent Iranian presence or a loyal proxy state on the shores of the Red Sea would effectively encircle the Gulf states and put Israel’s southern maritime flank at risk. Consequently, the Red Sea has evolved from a secondary shipping lane into a primary frontline of a larger strategic contest. The cooperation between Israel and the Gulf states is, therefore, an explicit effort to deny Iran a maritime hegemony that could strangle the region’s economic aspirations.

Path Forward

Realistically, the path forward lies in the formalisation of a maritime security coalition. While the “shadow” cooperation of the last few years has been productive, the volatility of the Red Sea demands a more structured framework. We can expect to see the gradual development of a joint maritime task force, potentially under a discreet multilateral umbrella, focusing specifically on the Bab el-Mandeb and the southern Red Sea.

The next phase will likely involve increased joint patrolling and the establishment of shared rapid-response centres. However, this will happen incrementally. The goal is not a formal military alliance—which would be politically explosive—but a “functional security arrangement” based on shared data and coordinated movement. Success will depend on whether the partners can maintain their focus on the shared Iranian threat despite the inevitable distractions of regional political crises. If they can sustain this momentum, the Red Sea will transition from a point of vulnerability to a pillar of regional stability, cementing the Abraham Accords as a practical tool for survival in a contested era.

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Source: Based on strategic analysis from “Why the Red Sea matters to Gulf–Israel security”.