Abraham Accords: A shift towards pragmatic cooperation, but geopolitical hurdles remain.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represent a significant realignment of relationships in the Middle East. The agreements – normalising relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco – deviated from decades of Arab consensus that conditioned recognition of Israel on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While Sudan’s progress towards full normalisation has stalled following the outbreak of conflict there, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco’s relationships with Israel have deepened, largely focused on economic and security cooperation. These accords were driven by shared concerns over Iran and a desire for economic advancement, bypassing traditional political constraints. Today, these relationships exist alongside ongoing tensions and a lack of regional comprehensive peace, revealing a complex and evolving dynamic.
Progress Made: A Desert Bloom of Cooperation
The initial years following the Accords saw a surge in bilateral trade and cooperation, and a notable focus has emerged on water security and agricultural technology – as alluded to by the title of this report. Israel, a world leader in water management and precision agriculture developed out of necessity in a naturally arid climate, has become a key partner for nations in the Gulf and North Africa grappling with similar challenges.
The UAE, for example, has invested heavily in Israeli desalination technologies and water efficiency solutions. Trade between the two countries has grown substantially, exceeding $2.7 billion in 2022, representing a significant increase from the negligible amounts pre-Accords. This includes the import of advanced Israeli irrigation systems aimed at boosting agricultural yields, alongside joint ventures in hydroponics and vertical farming – crucial for food security in a region dependent on imports.
Bahrain is also benefiting from Israeli expertise, with cooperation agreements focusing specifically on wastewater treatment and aquifer recharge. Israeli companies are actively involved in projects designed to optimise water usage in Bahrain’s agricultural sector. Similarly, Morocco seeks to enhance its own agricultural production through utilising Israeli know-how in areas like seed development and optimised fertiliser application.
Beyond direct trade, the focus on agritech has also spurred a growth in people-to-people exchanges. Agricultural researchers, engineers, and business leaders are increasingly travelling between these countries facilitating knowledge transfer and joint research initiatives. This collaboration extends to addressing broader food security concerns, including adapting crops to climate change and implementing sustainable farming practices. The establishment of joint working groups and investment funds dedicated to water and food technology demonstrate a continuing commitment to exploring and expanding this area of cooperation.
Challenges: Beneath the Surface of Normalisation
Despite the visible progress, challenges and limitations to the full potential of the Accords remain. The Palestinian issue, though sidelined in the initial agreements, continues to be a major source of tension. Whilst the participating Arab nations have framed their normalisation as strategically beneficial, public opinion in these countries largely remains unsupportive of Israel, particularly in the absence of meaningful progress towards a two-state solution. This disconnect creates a degree of political fragility, potentially limiting the scope of future cooperation and increasing vulnerability to shifts in domestic public sentiment.
Economic hurdles also exist. Whilst trade volumes have increased, they remain relatively modest when considering the overall economic potential of the region. Non-tariff barriers, logistical challenges, and regulatory discrepancies hinder greater trade flow. Furthermore, the economic benefits are not evenly distributed, with limited penetration into the wider economies of the partner countries.
Geopolitical concerns also overshadow the agreements. The ongoing conflict in Yemen, and other regional disputes, draw resources and attention away from normalisation efforts. Regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia, which haven’t formally joined the Accords but maintain discreet security cooperation with Israel, face internal and external pressures that complicate their engagement. The recent political upheaval in Sudan has thrown the stability of that agreement into question.
Finally, the initial enthusiasm for the Accords has arguably cooled. Domestic political cycles, shifting regional priorities, and the absence of a broader peace framework have slowed the pace of new initiatives. The lack of visible benefits for ordinary citizens within the participating nations also threatens to undermine long-term support for the agreements.
Israel-Iran Dimension: A Shared Strategic Imperative
The shadow of Iran looms large over the Abraham Accords. A significant motivation behind the normalisation process for the UAE and Bahrain, in particular, was a shared perception of the Iranian threat – namely, Iran’s nuclear programme, regional proxy activities, and ballistic missile development. The agreements, therefore, facilitated closer security cooperation, including intelligence sharing and joint military exercises, intended to counter Iran’s influence.
Israel views the developing relationships as enhancing the regional security architecture, creating a coalition of nations aligned against Iranian expansionism. The increased trade, especially in areas like critical infrastructure like water, lessens reliance on potentially unstable supply chains.
However, Iran views the Accords as a destabilising force, accusing the participating countries of betraying the Palestinian cause and aligning themselves with Israel. Iran has increased its rhetoric against these nations, occasionally engaging in provocative acts. A potential for escalation remains, particularly given Iran’s continued support for proxy groups throughout the region.
For Merlows readers, understanding this dynamic is key. The Accords are not simply about trade and diplomatic relations; they are fundamentally shaped, and may ultimately be constrained, by the broader geopolitical competition with Iran, and how that competition manifests itself regionally.
Path Forward: Incrementalism and Expanded Coalitions
The initial momentum of the Accords has slowed, but the relationships are proving resilient. The future is likely to be characterised by incremental progress, rather than dramatic breakthroughs. Continued focus on areas of mutual benefit, such as water security, renewable energy, and technology transfer, will be crucial to sustaining the agreements.
Expanding the circle of participants is a key goal. While a full normalisation agreement with Saudi Arabia remains elusive, discreet security cooperation continues, and a potential framework could emerge if a broader regional de-escalation takes hold. Engagement with other North African nations, like Algeria, could also unlock further opportunities for trade and collaboration.
Crucially, some form of dialogue addressing the Palestinian issue must eventually be incorporated. Continuing to ignore the core conflict risks undermining the legitimacy and sustainability of the Accords in the eyes of regional public opinion.
The path forward will also require increased emphasis on people-to-people engagement, promoting cross-cultural understanding and building genuine trust. This will necessitate cultivating a broader base of support within the participating countries, demonstrating the tangible benefits of normalisation to all segments of society. The focus on pragmatic, everyday issues like water technology, offers a concrete means to build that support, forging pathways to a more stable and prosperous Middle East – one well at a time.
Source Attribution: This report is based on extensive analysis of publicly available information, including reports from regional think tanks (such as the Middle East Institute and the Atlantic Council), government statements, economic data, and news articles from international media outlets covering the Middle East. Specific data points related to trade volumes are derived from reports by the World Trade Organization and national statistics agencies of the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Israel. Insights regarding regional security dynamics are informed by security briefings and expert analyses from organizations focused on Middle East geopolitics. All information has been synthesised and presented in a balanced and objective manner according to Merlows’ editorial guidelines.
