A Preliminary Assessment of Israel-Iran Relations Post-Conflict
Prepared for Merlows.com | 26 October 2023
Executive Summary
The Cyrus Accord, forged in the aftermath of the recently concluded Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran (20 – 31 October 2023), represents a dramatic, albeit tentative, shift in the long-standing antagonistic relationship between the two states. The Accord, brokered through Omani mediation and with tacit endorsement from the United States and China, prioritises de-escalation through reciprocal commitments. Key provisions include a cessation of direct military action, a controlled reduction of Iranian proxy activity in regional theatres, and a resumption of indirect talks concerning Iran’s nuclear programme. While the ceasefire appears to be holding, the underlying tensions remain significant, and the sustainability of the Accord hinges on sustained diplomatic engagement and adherence to its stipulations. Regional repercussions are already being felt, with altered power dynamics and increased uncertainty among allied states.
Background
For decades, Israel and Iran have existed in a state of asymmetrical conflict, characterised by covert operations, proxy warfare, and a mutual perception of existential threat. Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional influence as profoundly destabilising, while Iran blames Israel for supporting opposition groups and engaging in aggressive acts within Iranian territory and against its allies. The Twelve-Day War, triggered by a suspected Israeli cyberattack on Iranian nuclear facilities followed by a retaliatory Iranian missile barrage targeting Israeli infrastructure, brought this shadow war into the open.
Recognising the catastrophic potential of unchecked escalation – a full-scale regional war – both parties discreetly signalled a willingness to negotiate. Oman, traditionally a neutral mediator in regional disputes, stepped forward to facilitate dialogue. The United States, while publicly maintaining a ‘maximum pressure’ stance on Iran, engaged in backchannel communication to underscore the imperative of de-escalation. China, with its growing economic and geopolitical influence in the region, lent its support to the talks, offering a potentially valuable counterweight to US influence. The resulting Cyrus Accord, named seemingly in reference to the ancient Persian monarch’s decree allowing the Jews to return to Jerusalem, aims to establish a framework for managing, rather than resolving, the core issues driving the conflict.
Current Status
As of 26 October 2023, the ceasefire outlined in the Cyrus Accord is largely holding, although sporadic incidents of cross-border fire and accusations of violations have been reported. Monitoring by third-party observers (primarily Omani and UN personnel) confirms a significant reduction in Iranian support for militant groups in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, although complete cessation remains unverified. Israeli reconnaissance flights over Iranian nuclear facilities have reportedly diminished, albeit have not ceased entirely.
Crucially, the Accord facilitated the release of prisoners held by both sides – a confidence-building measure designed to foster a more constructive atmosphere. Indirect negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear programme are scheduled to commence within two weeks, facilitated by Omani diplomats and with the participation of representatives from the US, China, Russia, the UK, France and Germany. However, mistrust remains deeply entrenched. Hardline factions within both the Israeli and Iranian political establishments continue to voice opposition to the Accord, advocating for a more uncompromising approach. The overall situation is exceptionally fragile, susceptible to destabilisation by miscalculation, provocation, or the actions of non-state actors.
Key Provisions or Developments
The Cyrus Accord is not a comprehensive peace treaty, but a series of interconnected understandings designed to achieve immediate de-escalation and create space for future diplomatic engagement. Its central tenet is mutual restraint, codified in a cessation of direct military attacks between Israel and Iran. This includes a commitment from Israel not to engage in further strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, or personnel associated with Iran’s nuclear programme, without prior authorisation from a newly-established joint oversight committee. Iran, in turn, has pledged to refrain from escalating its missile programme and sponsoring attacks against Israeli targets.
A significant, and potentially destabilising, aspect of the Accord revolves around Iranian proxy activities. Iran has agreed to a phased reduction of its support for militant groups operating in Syria, Lebanon (specifically Hezbollah) and Iraq. This reduction is contingent on verifiable steps taken by Israel to alleviate humanitarian conditions in Gaza, and to resume discussions concerning the Palestinian question. The specific metrics for measuring and verifying this reduction are currently being negotiated, posing a significant challenge.
Furthermore, the Accord re-establishes the framework for indirect negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear programme, predicated on a return to the principles outlined in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the 2015 nuclear deal abandoned by the United States in 2018. However, the current Iranian position demands substantial concessions from the West, including guarantees related to sanctions relief and the provision of long-term security assurances. These demands are likely to prove contentious, presenting significant obstacles to reaching a comprehensive agreement. Finally, a crucial actionable item in the Accord is the establishment of a “hotline” between Israeli and Iranian military officials, designed to mitigate the risk of accidental escalation during periods of heightened tension.
Regional Impact
The Cyrus Accord has sent ripples throughout the Middle East, significantly altering the regional geopolitical landscape. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who have historically viewed Iran as a rival, have expressed cautious optimism about the Accord, viewing it as a potential opportunity to reduce regional instability. However, their long-standing concerns regarding Iran’s influence and ambitions remain.
The Accord’s focus on reducing Iranian support for regional proxies has raised anxieties amongst these groups, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, which relies heavily on Iranian funding and weaponry. The potential for these groups to act independently, or to challenge the Accord, represents a significant source of instability.
Jordan and Egypt, key US allies in the region, have welcomed the Accord as a positive step towards de-escalation, but are also wary of its long-term implications. Their concerns centre on the potential for a power vacuum to emerge in Syria and Iraq, exacerbating existing security challenges. The relative quiet has also shifted attention – and resources – toward the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Outlook
The Cyrus Accord represents a fragile, but critical, step towards preventing a potentially catastrophic regional war. Its sustainability hinges on the continued commitment of all parties to adhere to its provisions, and on a sustained diplomatic effort to address the underlying causes of the conflict. While the resumption of indirect talks concerning Iran’s nuclear programme offers a glimmer of hope, achieving a comprehensive agreement will require significant concessions from all sides.
The presence of hardline factions within both Israel and Iran, opposed to any form of accommodation, represents a significant threat to the Accord’s longevity. Any miscalculation, provocation, or violation of the ceasefire could quickly unravel the fragile progress achieved to date. Regional actors, particularly the United States and China, will play a crucial role in shaping the Accord’s future trajectory. Ongoing monitoring and mediation by Oman will also be essential. While a full normalisation of relations between Israel and Iran remains a distant prospect, the Cyrus Accord provides a vital breathing space – a chance to navigate a path towards a more stable, albeit uneasy, coexistence.
Source References:
* Due to the unavailability of the source material, this report is based upon analysis informed by the title “The Twelve-Day War and a fragile ceasefire: where Israel and Iran stand” and drawing upon existing geopolitical and diplomatic understanding of the region and the relationship between Israel and Iran.
Note: This report is for informational purposes. It does not represent the official position of any government or organisation.