Diplomatic Analysis: The conflict in Sudan is evolving into a proxy battleground for drone technology and regional influence.
Overview
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, erupting in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has rapidly transformed into a concerning case study in drone warfare. This is no longer a conventional civil conflict; it’s a testing ground for increasingly sophisticated drone technologies, with implications extending far beyond Sudan’s borders. The influx of advanced drones, facilitated primarily by the United Arab Emirates, has dramatically escalated the conflict’s intensity and prolonged the fighting, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and threatening regional stability. The situation demands urgent attention from the international community, particularly regarding the unchecked proliferation of these technologies to non-state actors.
Historical Context
Sudan has a long history of armed conflict, punctuated by periods of instability and civil war. The current conflict stems from a power struggle between SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (‘Hemedti’). The RSF, originating from the Janjaweed militias implicated in the Darfur genocide, has evolved into a powerful force. Previous conflicts, like the Tigray War in Ethiopia (2020-2022), witnessed the initial tactical use of drones in Africa, demonstrating the potential for shifting battlefield dynamics. However, Sudan presents a unique scenario: a large-scale internal conflict becoming a launchpad for a new arms race in drone technology, driven by external state actors pursuing their own geopolitical objectives. The history of arms flows into Darfur, often circumventing existing embargoes, provides a precedent for the current situation.
Key Actors & Positions
The primary actors are the SAF and the RSF. The SAF, representing the formal state structure, seeks to maintain national unity and its own authority. It initially relied on repurposing civilian drones but has increasingly acquired Turkish-made drones like the Bayraktar Akıncı and accompanying anti-drone systems. The RSF, a non-state militia, aims to expand its influence within Sudan. It has rapidly acquired advanced drones—reportedly Chinese-manufactured CH-95 and FH-95 models– through support from the UAE.
The United Arab Emirates is a crucial, if controversial, external actor. Despite publicly advocating for stability, it is accused of providing significant material support, notably drones, to the RSF, enabling its military capabilities. The US and EU view the UAE as a security partner but are increasingly concerned by its destabilising actions in Sudan. China, as a major drone exporter, faces scrutiny over the diversion of its weapons systems into the conflict. Turkey seeks to expand its arms sales and regional influence, providing support to the SAF. Finally, international bodies like the UN struggle to enforce existing embargoes and mediate a lasting resolution.
Analysis
The escalating drone warfare in Sudan has several critical implications. Firstly, it dramatically increases the risk to civilians. Drone strikes account for a disproportionately high percentage of civilian deaths (around 80% between January and June 2026). Secondly, the conflict is accelerating a technological arms race. Both sides constantly adapt their strategies, acquiring new drones and counter-drone technologies, rendering existing systems obsolete. This dynamic fosters instability and could embolden other non-state actors to seek similar capabilities.
The UAE’s involvement is particularly troubling, as its support for the RSF undermines regional stability and potentially emboldens a group with a documented history of egregious human rights abuses. The transfer of drone technology to a non-state actor with ties to transnational networks also carries the risk of proliferation to terrorist groups operating in the Sahel region. The potential for this technology to fall into the hands of groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS is a significant security concern. The US proposed arms embargo remains stalled due to divisions within the UN Security Council. The reliance on arms trade treaties alone is insufficient, given the UAE’s non-party status and demonstrated willingness to circumvent restrictions.
Outlook
The Sudanese conflict is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with drone warfare playing an increasingly prominent role. The SAF and RSF appear locked in a stalemate, neither possessing the capacity for a decisive victory. The UAE is unlikely to cease its support for the RSF, given its strategic interests in the region. International efforts to enforce an arms embargo or mediate a lasting peace face significant obstacles, and are reliant on the willingness of key external actors to prioritize stability over their own geopolitical objectives.
A key development to watch will be the proliferation of drone technology beyond Sudan’s borders. The potential for the RSF’s networks to transfer drones to groups in Chad, the Sahel, and potentially Libya, represents a serious threat. Ultimately, a shift in the behaviour of external actors, particularly the UAE, is crucial for de-escalating the conflict and mitigating its broader regional consequences. Without a concerted international effort to address the root causes of the conflict and curb the flow of arms, Sudan risks descending into a protracted and increasingly destabilizing state of warfare.
Sources:
Zaidan, Yasir. “How Sudan Became a Laboratory for Drone Warfare, Thanks to Abu Dhabi.” _War on the Rocks_, 15 October 2026, [https://warontherocks.com/2026/10/how-sudan-became-a-laboratory-for-drone-warfare-thanks-to-abu-dhabi/](https://warontherocks.com/2026/10/how-sudan-became-a-laboratory-for-drone-warfare-thanks-to-abu-dhabi/).
