Abraham Accords: Assessing the potential for Saudi inclusion, amid enduring regional complexities.
Context
The Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States in 2020, represent a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy. They saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, followed by Sudan and Morocco. These agreements went beyond merely establishing diplomatic ties; they entailed cooperation in areas like trade, tourism, security, and technological exchange. The driving forces behind these normalisations were multifaceted, including shared concerns regarding Iran, a desire for economic benefits, and a re-evaluation of traditional Arab stances towards Israel. However, the process hasn’t been universally welcomed, facing criticism from some Palestinians who view it as a betrayal of their cause, and from those concerned about potentially exacerbating regional instability. Currently, the Accords represent a patchwork of relationships, with varying degrees of implementation and public engagement. Whilst trade has increased, deeper security cooperation remains largely out of public view.
Progress Made
The potential for a Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement has been a focal point for several months, and represents the ‘holy grail’ of the Accords’ expansion. Discussions have intensified in 2023, driven largely by the Biden administration’s desire to create a more integrated Middle East. Initial progress involved secret talks, facilitated by the US, between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Israeli officials. Key to Saudi demands, however, is a significant package of concessions from the United States. These reportedly include security guarantees – a formal treaty mirroring the US commitment to Japan and South Korea – as well as assistance with developing a civilian nuclear programme with stringent safeguards.
Beyond the headline attraction of a Saudi deal, elements of practical cooperation have expanded within the existing framework. Bilateral trade between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain has demonstrably increased. Though figures are difficult to verify comprehensively due to limited transparency, estimates place trade volume in the billions of dollars. Tourism has also seen a boost, though potentially hampered by ongoing regional security concerns. Furthermore, there has been increased, though often discreet, security cooperation, particularly around intelligence sharing relating to Iranian activities. The establishment of joint working groups focused on topics like water and food security, and renewable energy projects, demonstrate a commitment to building on the initial diplomatic breakthroughs. These developments suggest a willingness to move beyond symbolic gestures towards tangible benefits, albeit at a measured pace.
Challenges
The path to Saudi-Israeli normalisation, and the broader sustainability of the Abraham Accords, is fraught with challenges. The most prominent obstacle remains the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Saudi Arabia has consistently maintained that it will not fully normalise relations with Israel without significant progress towards a two-state solution. Currently, that feels distant, with the Israeli government’s policies towards the Palestinians, including settlement expansion and restrictions on movement, viewed as detrimental by Riyadh.
Internal Saudi considerations are also significant. MBS faces domestic sensitivities; any deal with Israel must be carefully framed to avoid public backlash, particularly from conservative elements within the kingdom. The legacy of the Palestinian issue remains deeply entrenched in Saudi public opinion. Furthermore, the conditions Saudi Arabia is seeking from the US – a defence treaty and nuclear assistance – are politically sensitive within the US itself. Many US lawmakers are wary of committing to a treaty that could drag the US into a regional conflict, and of supporting a nuclear programme in the region, particularly given Iran’s existing enrichment activities.
Finally, regional factors add complexity. The continuation of conflicts in Yemen and Syria, and the broader geopolitical competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, create a volatile environment that could derail any normalisation efforts. The recent escalations in tensions between Israel and militant groups in the West Bank and Gaza also serve as a stark reminder of the fragility of the current calm.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The growing alignment between Israel and some Arab states is strategically driven, in part, by shared anxieties regarding Iran’s regional ambitions and nuclear programme. Normalisation is seen by some as a means of building a united front to counter Iranian influence. However, this dynamic also fuels Iran’s concerns about encirclement and increases the risk of escalation.
The prospect of Saudi normalisation with Israel, combined with a US security guarantee, would represent a significant strengthening of the anti-Iran axis. Tehran views the Abraham Accords as a US-led attempt to isolate it and undermine its regional position. The unspoken element is a potential for these accords to be instrumental in building a regional security architecture focused on containing Iran, via intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and potentially even integrated air defence systems. This heightened tension inevitably discourages more conciliatory approaches to other regional issues and serves to solidify existing divisions, placing greater strain on the delicate diplomatic balance. Any rapid normalisation, particularly if perceived as overtly anti-Iranian, could provoke a more assertive response from Tehran.
Path Forward
Realistically, a full and immediate normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel appears unlikely in the short term. The gap between Saudi demands and what the US is willing to offer – particularly regarding the defence treaty – remains substantial. While the Biden administration continues to pursue the deal, domestic political constraints in both the US and Saudi Arabia complicate the process. A phased approach feels more probable, beginning with incremental steps in economic cooperation and potentially limited security coordination.
The long-term success of the Abraham Accords, including any expansion to include Saudi Arabia, fundamentally depends on addressing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Renewed efforts to revive peace talks, even if they don’t yield an immediate breakthrough, are crucial. Without addressing the core grievances of the Palestinian people, the Accords will remain vulnerable to instability and criticism. The focus also needs to shift towards regional de-escalation, promoting dialogue and cooperation on issues like water security and climate change. A more inclusive approach, involving all regional actors, is necessary to build a more sustainable and stable Middle East.
Source Attribution
This report is based on publicly available information, analysis of regional dynamics, and insights derived from the stated source’s framing: “The case against rapid Saudi normalisation with Israel”. While the source material was not directly accessible, its title informed the report’s focus on the potential pitfalls of a hastily arranged agreement and highlighted the complexities surrounding Saudi Arabia’s position. Further information was drawn from reported diplomatic engagements between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel summarised in international news reporting from October – November 2023.
