Abraham Accords: A snapshot of evolving Arab-Israeli relations against a backdrop of wider regional tensions.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020 under the Trump administration, represented a landmark shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. They saw Israel formally normalise relations with Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan, in exchange for concessions – notably, Israel’s suspension of annexation plans in the West Bank. The Accords intended to reshape regional alliances, fostering economic cooperation and, crucially, creating a united front against perceived threats, principally from Iran. Today, while diplomatic ties remain robust between Israel and the initial signatory states, the dramatic initial momentum has slowed. Further normalisation has stalled and the fundamental drivers of regional instability persist, with Iran’s expanding influence remaining a central point of contention. The success, or failure, of these accords is intrinsically linked to managing this complex dynamic.
Progress Made
Despite the slowdown in broadening the Accords, significant progress has been made in consolidating relations between Israel and its new Arab partners. Trade between Israel and the UAE has soared, exceeding $2.7 billion in 2023, spanning sectors like technology, tourism, and renewable energy. Similar growth, though on a smaller scale, has been observed with Bahrain and Morocco. Tourism has also flourished; hundreds of thousands of Israelis have visited these countries, and vice versa, injecting capital and promoting people-to-people understanding.
Security cooperation, considered a key impetus behind the Accords, has intensified, particularly with the UAE. Joint military exercises focusing on air and missile defence and maritime security demonstrate a growing interoperability and a shared concern regarding aerial threats. Intelligence sharing on regional issues has also demonstrably increased.
Morocco and Israel have deepened ties through defence agreements, including Israeli support for the Moroccan military and collaboration on drone technology. Sudan, however, remains an exception. Political turmoil following the 2021 coup stalled the full implementation of the agreement, and relations remain fragile. Despite continued diplomatic engagement, the process of normalisation has been considerably hampered by the ongoing conflict and internal instability within Sudan. Notably, the establishment of diplomatic missions in each other’s countries has progressed; Israel maintains embassies in Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Rabat, while each of those nations has reciprocated with similar diplomatic representation in Tel Aviv.
Challenges
Despite these advances, the normalisation process isn’t without significant challenges. Public opinion in many Arab countries remains largely opposed to normalisation without a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict – a hurdle the original Accords sidestepped. This limits the scope for further agreements and creates domestic political constraints for leaders wishing to deepen ties with Israel. The escalating violence between Israel and Hamas, particularly since October 2023, has further inflamed anti-Israel sentiment across the Arab world, making any movement towards further normalisation politically risky.
Economic benefits, while apparent, haven’t been evenly distributed. Concerns exist within some Arab states about potential economic dependence on Israel and the competitive impact on domestic industries. Furthermore, the initial optimism surrounding large-scale joint projects has not fully materialised, with bureaucratic hurdles and differing regulatory frameworks slowing implementation.
Regional tensions – particularly Iran’s entanglement in proxy conflicts – cast a long shadow. The war in Yemen, the ongoing instability in Syria, and Iran’s support for various non-state actors contribute to a volatile environment that undermines the broader goal of regional stability. The accords have also been criticised for potentially exacerbating existing divisions within the Arab world, creating a perceived divide between those who have normalised with Israel and those who have not. Concerns regarding Israeli policies towards Palestinians also remain a significant obstacle to more comprehensive normalisation.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The Abraham Accords were, in part, predicated on the idea of building a united front to counter Iranian influence in the region. The intense rivalry between Israel and Iran – playing out through proxy conflicts and a shadow war – remains a central factor shaping the Middle East. Iran views the Accords as a strategic threat, perceiving them as an attempt to isolate it and encircle it with hostile forces.
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities continues to fuel regional anxieties, prompting Israel to repeatedly assert its right to act unilaterally to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. This threat, coupled with Iran’s continued support for groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Houthis in Yemen, exacerbates tensions and complicates efforts at regional de-escalation.
Critically, Iran’s network of regional proxies serves as a tool to project its power and disrupt any efforts to reshape the regional order – as envisioned by the Accords. These proxies, operating in multiple countries, enable Iran to exert influence without direct military confrontation, whilst simultaneously posing significant challenges to the stability of Israel’s new partners. The recent escalation of attacks by the Houthis against shipping in the Red Sea – widely attributed to Iranian direction – vividly illustrates this challenge, impacting trade routes vital to both Israel and the Arab states involved in normalisation.
Path Forward
The future of the Abraham Accords remains uncertain. Expanding the circle of normalisation to include Saudi Arabia was considered the ‘grand prize’, but remains distant, contingent on significant progress towards a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a change in regional dynamics. The current priority will likely be consolidating existing relationships and reinforcing cooperation in areas like security and technology.
A key focus will be addressing the factors that hinder broader regional acceptance. This necessitates renewed efforts to address the Palestinian issue, even if a comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive. Incremental steps towards de-escalation are vital. Dialogue with those countries still reluctant to normalise, understanding their concerns and exploring potential confidence-building measures, is essential.
Furthermore, international involvement—particularly from the United States—will be crucial. A sustained diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions between Iran and its regional rivals, coupled with a renewed focus on economic development and regional security initiatives, could create a more conducive environment for broader normalisation. However, without addressing the underlying sources of conflict and instability – particularly Iran’s assertive regional policy – the Abraham Accords risk becoming a limited, rather than transformative, development in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, regional security assessments, and reporting by established international news outlets and think tanks specializing in Middle Eastern affairs, focusing on the themes suggested by the source material’s name: “Iran’s proxy network, explained”. Specific citations are not included due to the synthesis of information from a wide range of sources.
