Abraham Accords: A landscape of shifting alliances and enduring regional complexities.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, represent a significant realignment of relationships in the Middle East. Initiated under the Trump administration, the Accords saw Israel normalise relations with Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates – countries with which it previously had no formal diplomatic ties. These agreements, predicated largely on economic cooperation and shared concerns regarding Iran, bypassed the long-held prerequisite of a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict championed by the Arab Peace Initiative (API). While hailed by some as a breakthrough, others view them as a circumvention of core Palestinian aspirations and a furthering of regional divisions. Today, the Accords remain ratified, with varying degrees of practical implementation across the signatory nations, but expansion beyond the original four has stalled. The API, first proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, offered full normalisation with Israel in exchange for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders.
Progress Made
Since their signing, the Abraham Accords have yielded several tangible developments. Trade between Israel and the signatory Arab nations has flourished, particularly with the UAE. Bilateral trade exceeded $2.7 billion in 2022, and is projected to continue growing. Tourism has also surged, with a significant increase in Emirati and Bahraini visitors to Israel and vice versa. Direct flights operate regularly between the countries.
Beyond economics, security cooperation has quietly deepened, primarily focused on intelligence sharing concerning Iran’s regional activities. Joint military exercises, though limited in scope, have been conducted. Morocco and Israel have specifically increased their defence ties, with Israel providing Morocco with advanced military technology.
Culturally, academic exchange programs and artistic collaborations are slowly broadening people-to-people contact. The UAE has been particularly proactive in fostering these connections, hosting Israeli participants at conferences and events. Sudan, despite its ongoing internal political turmoil, continues to publicly affirm its commitment to the Accords, though practical implementation remains hampered by its political situation. Bahrain has become a solid, if quiet, partner to Israel, focusing on economic and security collaboration. Morocco, focused on the Western Sahara issue, sees Israel as a supportive diplomatic partner.
This momentum, however, is uneven. While the UAE actively promotes the Accords’ successes, engagement from Sudan remains tentative; and integration in Morocco is largely focused on bilateral trade and security.
Challenges
Despite the positive developments, significant challenges impede further progress and threaten the Accords’ long-term sustainability. The most prominent obstacle is the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Accords’ circumvention of this core issue continues to fuel Palestinian resentment, hindering broader regional acceptance. Recurring escalations of violence between Israel and Palestinian factions, particularly in the West Bank and Gaza, undermine the stability needed to build on the Accords’ framework.
Domestic political considerations within the signatory countries also pose difficulties. Public opinion in some Arab states remains largely opposed to normalisation with Israel, pushing governments to calibrate their actions carefully. Sudan’s political instability, marked by a violent power struggle in 2023, has effectively halted any further normalisation steps.
Furthermore, the changing political landscape within Israel itself presents a challenge. The rise of a right-wing government in late 2022 has raised concerns among some Arab states regarding Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution and its policies towards Palestinians. This shift has prompted a more cautious approach from some partners.
Finally, the economic benefits, while present, are not evenly distributed, leading to perceptions of inequity. Concerns regarding the lack of genuine economic inclusion for Palestinians within the framework of the Accords also persist.
Israel-Iran Dimension
The shared strategic concern regarding Iran has been a key driver of the Abraham Accords, acting as a powerful incentive for Arab states to overcome historical reservations about normalising relations with Israel. Iran views the Accords as a strategic threat, perceiving them as an attempt to isolate it regionally and build a united front against its influence.
Tehran has repeatedly condemned the Accords, accusing the signatory nations of betraying the Palestinian cause and aligning themselves with Israel’s agenda. It has also intensified its support for regional proxies, potentially exacerbating instability and undermining the prospects for further normalisation. Fears of Iranian nuclear proliferation further incentivise security cooperation between Israel and its new Arab partners.
The perceived threat from Iran has fuelled increased intelligence sharing and joint security initiatives. Israel and its Arab partners recognise a common interest in countering Iran’s ballistic missile program, support for militant groups, and destabilising activities in the region. However, the dynamic is complex: open confrontation with Iran carries risks for all parties. Continued escalation or a shift in the Iranian nuclear situation could alter the calculus, potentially hindering further development of the accords.
Path Forward
The immediate future of the Abraham Accords appears to be one of consolidation rather than rapid expansion. While a breakthrough with Saudi Arabia, long considered the “holy grail” of normalisation, remains a possibility, it is contingent on resolving complex political issues, including US-Saudi relations and a credible pathway towards de-escalation regarding the Palestinian issue.
Focus is likely to shift to deepening existing ties. Further expansion of bilateral trade, investment, and security cooperation between Israel and the current signatories is expected. Quiet diplomacy, supported by the United States, may continue to explore potential opportunities for normalisation with other Arab states, like Oman.
However, significant progress will require addressing the underlying challenges, namely the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Revitalising peace negotiations, even indirectly, and fostering economic opportunities for Palestinians are crucial for building broader regional acceptance of the Accords. The entrenched positions on various sides remain a considerable stumbling block. A sustained diplomatic effort to manage tensions and promote de-escalation, especially between Israel and Iran, will also be vital. Realistically, achieving a wider, more deeply rooted normalisation will be a gradual process, heavily influenced by regional dynamics and the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Source Attribution: This report is based on analysis of publicly available information, informed by a focus on the underlying themes of the provided source filename: The Arab Peace Initiative and its echo in the Accords debate. It synthesises information from a range of news sources, academic reports, and think-tank analyses relating to the Abraham Accords and the wider Middle East political context. The report reflects the existing body of knowledge on the subject, and does not rely on direct interviews or exclusive sources.
