Abraham Accords: Examining the wider implications of deepening ties beyond formal diplomatic recognition.
The Abraham Accords, brokered in 2020, saw Israel normalise relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. While Sudan’s trajectory has been complicated by internal conflict, the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco have seen significant, publicly visible developments in diplomatic and economic cooperation with Israel. These agreements stemmed from a shared perception of the threat posed by Iran and a desire for economic opportunity. Beyond formal diplomatic recognition, the Accords spurred a broader trend toward pragmatic cooperation across the region, ignoring historical political divides in favour of shared economic interests. This trend, though uneven, continues to shape the Middle East, with recent developments like the Israel-Egypt gas deal illustrating the potential for further integration. The overall impact remains a subject of debate, with Palestinian concerns and regional power dynamics constantly in play.
Progress Made: Gas Deal Highlights Emerging Economic Links
A recently signed agreement between Israel and Egypt marks a pivotal moment in their evolving relationship, and a tangible sign of regional economic integration. The $35 billion deal will see Israel export natural gas to Egypt, with Egypt then processing and re-exporting it as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. This represents a significant boost to Israel’s gas industry; the Leviathan and Tamar fields offshore Israel hold substantial reserves. For Egypt, it offers a renewed opportunity to position itself as a key energy hub, leveraging its existing LNG infrastructure and benefiting from export revenues.
The deal builds on a previous agreement signed in 2018 allowing for exports of Israeli gas to Jordan via Egypt, but this new arrangement is substantial in scale and duration. Experts estimate the agreement could run for 15 years. Importantly, this arrangement isn’t just about energy. It’s fostering collaboration in related sectors like pipeline infrastructure and potentially, renewable energy projects.
Beyond the specifics of the gas deal, the broader trend of Israeli-Egyptian security cooperation continues. Primarily focused on combating terrorism in the Sinai Peninsula, this cooperation, while largely unpublicised, is vital to both countries’ security interests. Trade between the two countries has also been increasing steadily since the initial normalisation of relations in 1979, and this new deal is expected to further stimulate economic activity. This pragmatic partnership, despite a lack of widespread popular enthusiasm in either country, demonstrates a clear strategic alignment of interests.
Challenges: Balancing Economic Gains with Political Sensitivities
Despite the positive developments, substantial challenges remain to the full realisation of the potential for regional integration exemplified by the Israel-Egypt gas deal. Public opinion in both Egypt and Jordan remains largely critical of closer ties with Israel, constrained by lingering sentiments around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Egyptian government will need to navigate this sensitivity carefully, particularly regarding the perceived economic benefits flowing to Israel. Any perception of disproportionate gains for Israel could fuel domestic criticism and potentially destabilise the regime.
The broader political context is also key. The lack of progress on a two-state solution for the Palestinians continues to cast a shadow over all normalisation efforts. Many Arab states remain wary of being seen as abandoning the Palestinian cause, and this fuels reluctance to deepen ties with Israel publicly. Political transitions within regional states can also derail progress. The situation in Sudan is a stark reminder; the coup in 2021 stalled its path toward full normalisation, demonstrating the fragility of these agreements.
Further complicating matters are concerns about environmental impacts. The LNG processing and export facilities in Egypt require significant investment and carry the risk of pollution. Ensuring environmentally responsible development will be crucial to maintaining the long-term sustainability of the project. Finally, security risks remain. The Sinai Peninsula continues to be a hotbed for militant activity, and the security of gas pipelines and LNG facilities is a constant concern, necessitating ongoing and robust security cooperation.
Israel-Iran Dimension: Regional Realignment & Energy Security
The deepening economic ties between Israel and Arab states, as exemplified by the energy deal with Egypt, are directly linked to shared anxieties regarding Iran’s regional ambitions. The perception of a growing Iranian threat has motivated pragmatic cooperation, and normalisation initiatives are largely understood as a creation of a counterweight to Tehran’s influence.
Iran views these normalisation efforts with deep suspicion, framing them as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause and a strategic alliance aimed at isolating it. It has repeatedly denounced the Abraham Accords and actively seeks to undermine them through its support for regional proxies and continued development of its nuclear program.
The Israel-Egypt gas deal further diminishes Iran’s influence within the energy market. By providing a new source of natural gas to Europe, the deal reduces Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and indirectly lessens Tehran’s leverage as a significant energy supplier. This strategic realignment, driven by energy security concerns, strengthens Israel’s position in the region and contributes to the evolving geopolitical landscape. The agreement serves as a tangible outcome of the security cooperation framework established in the wake of the Abraham Accords, intended to address perceived Iranian aggression.
Path Forward: Incrementalism & Pragmatic Cooperation
The future of normalisation will likely be characterised by incrementalism and a continued focus on pragmatic cooperation in areas of mutual benefit, such as trade, energy, water security, and counter-terrorism. Expect further bilateral deals building on existing frameworks, rather than sweeping regional agreements. The energy sector will remain central to these efforts, with the potential for expanding Israeli gas exports to other countries in the region and beyond.
However, transformative change remains unlikely without progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front. Meaningful steps towards a two-state solution could unlock greater public acceptance of normalisation within Arab societies and allow for more open and substantial cooperation. Despite this, realistically, any major breakthrough on the Palestinian issue seems distant in the current political climate.
The focus will likely remain on building ‘bottom-up’ normalisation, driven by economic opportunities and security needs, even in the absence of comprehensive peace agreements. Continued US engagement will be crucial in fostering regional dialogue and de-escalating tensions, particularly concerning Iran. Nonetheless, the success of this course will depend on navigating the political sensitivities and security challenges that continue to shape the Middle East.
Source: Based on the reported deal: “A record deal: Israel and Egypt sign a $35bn gas export agreement.” Independent analysis and regional expertise were used to supplement the information.